Post Election Commentary by Andrés Malamud, Political Analyst
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Pierre Smith
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I don't know.
I think Milei is most likely over, but certainly if it was head-to-head Massa v. Bullrich (or my man Larreta), Massa is nuked.
Bullrich being sidelined, you had a stark question: do you want fanatical change, or not?
Milei will lose with like ~43% or so, which is still a crazy high number of people wanting a kind of change that usually only comes after war. Because, the conditions in Argentina are so abnormal that you can get there, despite there not having been a war.
I've said this again and again, my objective interest is in Massa winning, because it means I can continue to cycle down to a place I love at the very lowest of costs, aside from the flight itself, and the Panama stopover. But, no question, the electroshock therapy Milei prescribed would - after a number of years of pain - have been the right way to go if you're thinking about the very long term health of the country.
Luckily, I guess, if you need another Peronist in there, Massa is the least bad of a very suboptimal bunch.
I think Milei is most likely over, but certainly if it was head-to-head Massa v. Bullrich (or my man Larreta), Massa is nuked.
Bullrich being sidelined, you had a stark question: do you want fanatical change, or not?
Milei will lose with like ~43% or so, which is still a crazy high number of people wanting a kind of change that usually only comes after war. Because, the conditions in Argentina are so abnormal that you can get there, despite there not having been a war.
I've said this again and again, my objective interest is in Massa winning, because it means I can continue to cycle down to a place I love at the very lowest of costs, aside from the flight itself, and the Panama stopover. But, no question, the electroshock therapy Milei prescribed would - after a number of years of pain - have been the right way to go if you're thinking about the very long term health of the country.
Luckily, I guess, if you need another Peronist in there, Massa is the least bad of a very suboptimal bunch.
From 'The Almagro School' - substack account of Irishman Éamann Mac Donnchada:
Considering the dire state of the economy this is a brilliant result for Economy Minister Massa, he managed to convince a lot of voters that the 130% inflation rate and 40% poverty had nothing to do with him. Fear of Milei will have contributed to his vote too, especially among the university-educated, a stronghold of peronismo in recent years.
If there’s one thing peronistas like it’s a winner and he beat Milei by nearly seven points. All of the movement will now gather to support him in the run-off election in four weeks. He’ll get Schiaretti’s (dissident Peronista) and Bregman’s (Trotskyist) votes for sure and even some of Bullrich’s, those who despise him but recognize that at least he’s not mentally unfit for high office. And he’ll now burr the edges off the edge of his peronista discourse to make it easier for them to do so.
To lose by such a margin to the leader of what he calls “la casta” (the ruling caste) is a disaster for Milei. He has lost the aura of inevitable triumph, the wave has broken. It’s hard, indeed impossible, to imagine that he’ll continue to enjoy the support of the food service workers' union and its boss Luis Barrionuevo (Jimmy Hoffa was the Dalai Llama by comparison). He has no party and no history to back him and his mystique has now taken a severe beating. He’ll either decline to take part in the run-off election or his campaign will collapse like a souffle.
“But surely a lot of Bullrich’s voters will vote for him.”
Some will, the ones whose political identity is diamond-hard hatred of peronismo, but they won’t be enough to save him. Bullrich campaigned on being the sensible, reforming and democratically minded conservative candidate. She can’t now credibly go, “Well actually, batshit populism led by a disturbed individual is what the country needs.” My guess is that most of her supporters will cast null ballots in the run-off.
In any remotely normal country Bullrich should have one this election at a canter. She offered the electorate the reforms most economists say the country desperately needs: sort out its byzantine exchange control system, lower taxes on exports, stop or at least slow down the endless expansion of public employment of dubious quality etc. But she wasn’t a great campaigner and was handicapped by the ingrained hatred she provokes in most Argentines with a Peronista identity because she abandoned the movement after having belonged to its revolutionary wing in the 1970s. And she offered no poetry. Massa had the history and mystique of peronismo, Milei had his chainsaw and pound shop libertarianism, she just had some sensible ideas.
Yet again the “classical liberals” and Harvard PhD in economics types who supported and advised her turned out to have very little clue what their compatriots are actually like.
In short: Milei is toast, Massa will be President.
Peronismo abides
Considering the dire state of the economy this is a brilliant result for Economy Minister Massa, he managed to convince a lot of voters that the 130% inflation rate and 40% poverty had nothing to do with him. Fear of Milei will have contributed to his vote too, especially among the university-educated, a stronghold of peronismo in recent years.
If there’s one thing peronistas like it’s a winner and he beat Milei by nearly seven points. All of the movement will now gather to support him in the run-off election in four weeks. He’ll get Schiaretti’s (dissident Peronista) and Bregman’s (Trotskyist) votes for sure and even some of Bullrich’s, those who despise him but recognize that at least he’s not mentally unfit for high office. And he’ll now burr the edges off the edge of his peronista discourse to make it easier for them to do so.
To lose by such a margin to the leader of what he calls “la casta” (the ruling caste) is a disaster for Milei. He has lost the aura of inevitable triumph, the wave has broken. It’s hard, indeed impossible, to imagine that he’ll continue to enjoy the support of the food service workers' union and its boss Luis Barrionuevo (Jimmy Hoffa was the Dalai Llama by comparison). He has no party and no history to back him and his mystique has now taken a severe beating. He’ll either decline to take part in the run-off election or his campaign will collapse like a souffle.
“But surely a lot of Bullrich’s voters will vote for him.”
Some will, the ones whose political identity is diamond-hard hatred of peronismo, but they won’t be enough to save him. Bullrich campaigned on being the sensible, reforming and democratically minded conservative candidate. She can’t now credibly go, “Well actually, batshit populism led by a disturbed individual is what the country needs.” My guess is that most of her supporters will cast null ballots in the run-off.
In any remotely normal country Bullrich should have one this election at a canter. She offered the electorate the reforms most economists say the country desperately needs: sort out its byzantine exchange control system, lower taxes on exports, stop or at least slow down the endless expansion of public employment of dubious quality etc. But she wasn’t a great campaigner and was handicapped by the ingrained hatred she provokes in most Argentines with a Peronista identity because she abandoned the movement after having belonged to its revolutionary wing in the 1970s. And she offered no poetry. Massa had the history and mystique of peronismo, Milei had his chainsaw and pound shop libertarianism, she just had some sensible ideas.
Yet again the “classical liberals” and Harvard PhD in economics types who supported and advised her turned out to have very little clue what their compatriots are actually like.
In short: Milei is toast, Massa will be President.
