S&P, Fitch officially lists Argentina as in default

The other day i received the following WA msg:

La pelea de Argentina con sus acreedores sobre cuanto pagaremos en un futuro (y suponiendo desde ya que lo pagaremos) me hace acordar a un viejo pero buen chiste judío. Jacobo va a lo de Moishe en el Once a comprarse un traje, Uno le gusta, le queda bárbaro, y comienza la ardua discusión por el precio, Moishe le pide 10.000 pesos, Jacobo contraoferta mil. La pelea sigue feroz, encarnizada, durante casi dos horas Al final Moishe cansado y para sacárselo de encima al Jacobo se lo deja en 3000 pesos. Jacobo se lleva el traje y promete que tan pronto vuelva al negocio "te mando un cadete con un cheque al día, estate tranquilo."
Pasa la tarde, el anochecer y nadie llega. Al día siguiente Moishe llama reclamando: "¿Y el cheque?" "Justo se me enfermó el cadete... pero mañana me avisó que ya viene y lo primero que hago es mandarlo..." explica Jacobo. Al día siguiente la excusa es que se le acabaron los cheques, al otro que se le recalcó la muñeca y no puede firmar, al otro que los idiotas del Banco le negaron el descubierto y así sucesivamente. Finalmente, ya agotado, Moishe va a verlo a Jacobo a su negocio y se produce el siguiente diálogo:
- Jacobo, no quiero perder más el tiempo. ¿Pensás pagarme si o no?
- No Moishe. No pienso pagarte.
- Bueno, por lo menos no pierdo mas el tiempo... dice Moishe y se va. Pero de inmediato Moishe vuelve y pregunta:
- Decime, Jacobo ¿alguna vez pensaste en pagarme?
- No Moishe. jamás se me pasó siquiera por la cabeza...
- Y entonces, Jacobo, ¿por que me peleaste tanto el precio?
- Porque soy un buen tipo, Moishe,. Quería que pierdas menos plata. Vos ibas a perder 10.000 pesos, y ahora solo perdiste tres mil...

Mi sensación es que con la discusión por la deuda los argentinos demostramos que somos buena gente: queremos que nuestros acreedores ( a los que muy probablemente no les vamos a pagar) pierdan menos plata...
 
It's all joke, Nobel Prizewinner, J. Stiglitz , Columbia U. teacher and mentor of Martin Guzman the Argie Minister negotiating the Argie debt with Foreign Bonistas Stated;" If the Bonistas don't accept Argentinas Proposal it's a shame, Bonistas are setting a bad precedent for the outcome of future negotiations with other serial non payers like Zaire, Mozambique, Republic of Congo "?

Then mentioned why should the Bonistas get exorbitant interests and gains , if they had placed the funds in US savings bonds they would receive only a small interest....! He surely heard about Risk costs , who is he trying to confuse ? Deliberately to favor his pupil? Could anybody trust him any longer?
 
It's all joke, Nobel Prizewinner, J. Stiglitz , Columbia U. teacher and mentor of Martin Guzman the Argie Minister negotiating the Argie debt with Foreign Bonistas Stated;" If the Bonistas don't accept Argentinas Proposal it's a shame, Bonistas are setting a bad precedent for the outcome of future negotiations with other serial non payers like Zaire, Mozambique, Republic of Congo "?

Then mentioned why should the Bonistas get exorbitant interests and gains , if they had placed the funds in US savings bonds they would receive only a small interest....! He surely heard about Risk costs , who is he trying to confuse ? Deliberately to favor his pupil? Could anybody trust him any longer?
Exactly. Never the likes of Stiglitz would invest in an Arg USD bond for 1 or 2% p.a. Hypocrites.

I also hear a lot that bond investors have a short memory and will soon invest again at 6 or 7%. Hard to imagine, but we will see. Anyway, in the sort run Argentina wont have access to the bond market, which then basically leaves too options: a) balanced books or b) print more money. Hard to imagine option a) happening, especially now with the Covid situation. I would be surprised if we dont end up in a high inflation within the next two years (i.e. higher than 100% per year)
 
As long as you have a market that rewards tremendous risk and a bunch of crooks gambling with other people's money you will see hedge funds willing to "invests" in serious defaulters and insolvent countries like Argentina. Yes Argentina is in a technical default but as long as they reach an agreement with the bondholders -- which they will -- all will be forgiven. These days the financial market is so complex that even junk bonds like those from Argentina can be repackaged and bundled up into another security and sold on the market. And people will still buy it!
 
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