I think it depends on a few things:
- Risk tolerance/how much are you willing to part with: assuming you're not willing to die for your watch, are you willing to part with $20/$250/$2,500+?
- Where do you live/where are you traveling/at what time? In Patagonia or up north you're probably more likely to have your watch stolen by a bird than a person, but in CABA it depends entirely on the neighborhood. Last week a 17yo in La Matanza shot a woman in the leg, originally trying to shoot her in the head (at least that's what the video looked like to me) over a purse you'd find on clearance at a thrift store; location is everything
- Do you look like a target? If you look out of place, like a tourist, or rich you're more likely to be targeted. Most crimes are crimes of opportunity after all. I dress the same here like I did in North America, $20 shirt, $40 shorts, $30 shoes; I'm not a stylish guy to begin with, and even if I had the money for expensive clothes I have no interest in them because it draws attention. I understand that's why some people where jewelry to begin with, but if you're worried about being robbed it's probably better to dress down than dress up
- Finally, how tall/muscular/etc are you? With shoes one I'm pushing 6'6", and I haven't weighed less than 200 lbs since I was a teenager; I have survivorship bias I think in part to this; if you're a little old lady you're an easy target compared to a jacked teenager or someone that has the proportions of a fridge
On a side note, I live downtown and see a ton of people, on the street, employees at stores, etc. wearing both real and knock off Apple Watches, so it's really hard to say. I was thinking about getting a smart watch for exercising, but the potential theft is something that I keep mulling over.