it would be strange if Scotland didnt vote for independence.
Why would the Scots not prefer Independence?
I suspect the Scots, like the Australians referendum to leave the Commonwealth, will ultimately be voted No. Not necessarily because of lack of the emotional desire to leave, but it will come down to the common sense (and perhaps their stereotyped character of being cheap!). It is SO damned expensive to become independent, and SO much easier to just stay part of the UK (or Commonwealth in case of Australia). Every once in awhile the idea of leaving the commonwealth gets floated in various member countries around the world, and at the end of the day it comes down to the fact that it requires so so much change in policy, government, currency, etc that it isn't worth the expense. I suspect the Scots will probably decide the same thing -- they now have their own parliament, I wonder if they'll really decide it's worth independence -- although then again, if the price of oil goes back up and their offshore production keeps bringing in the money, maybe they'll say forget it, why share that wealth with the rest of the UK?
And as Dublin mentioned along in one of the threads, Scotland would have to take it's debt. Now, Scotland obviously already pays taxes towards the UK debt, but when people actually are told oh we have to take X billions of pounds of debt with us, it tends to make voters shudder in their boots. The idea of independence can't help but make people think "clean slate" but there is no such thing -- if they leave they are going to have to take a lot of things with them, and have to leave others behind (EU membership for example).
That was another ridiculous lie of the Quebecois Separatists -- they claimed that the Quebecers wouldn't have to take their debt -- are you effing kidding me, the ROC (rest of Canada) surely would not have allowed this, especially when we were in a crappy economic position at the time.
Separatism / Independence are very emotional subjects, you will never win an argument with a die hard believer, because their belief is deeply seeded in the emotional, actual logic will never prevail. However when it comes down to the vote, the majority -- even if it is a slim majority as in Quebec which was 50.5% no (to separation) and 49.5% yes (separate) -- don't believe strongly enough to ignore the logistics.
Speaking of majority voting -- I think in Quebec referendum they would have needed a 60% vote -- what do they need in Scotland? I presume Scotland is the same thing as well -- a referendum to see if there is enough interest, and then they would have to present a bill to parliament etc -- it's not a one and done type of vote in other words....