So much for herd immunity?

[antipodean]

Argentina offers irrefutable evidence that long lockdowns spell disaster

The world’s longest lockdown has not saved Argentina from coronavirus misery as cases and daily deaths skyrocket

www.telegraph.co.uk

Am not sure about all parts of this article, for example foreign tourism only returning in more than a year from now in summer 2021/2022... but as even the US and Brazil are now starting to "get better" I suppose it is a risk that Argentina will be left behind as a "high risk destination" and miss out on being able to attract its largest inbound markets this coming season.

There was however a recent projection by some Argentine medical academics that estimates that Argentina will have something like 364,000 dead by Christmas if the death toll continues to increase at this rate. Hopkins University also show Argentina as one of the few countries in the top ten where cases and deaths are actually accelerating. Alberto's gift to the nation perhaps... another Peru, or even worse with an economy, society and its institutions laying in ruins and deeply resentful of the government's failure to actually protect life as they were promised.

Coronavirus en Argentina: las proyecciones de un biólogo apuntan a una alarmante cifra de muertes para Navidad

Alberto Kornblihtt, investigador del Instituto de Fisiología, Biología Molecular y Neurociencias, que depende de la Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales de la UBA y del CONICET, calculó que para las Fiestas habrá unos 364.000 muertos. La opinión del físico Jorge Aliaga a Infobae

www.infobae.com

 

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

364,000 deaths is just absolute scaremongering. No country has come anywhere near to close to 1% of the population dying from covid. Some Argentine medical professionals must have a wholely unscientific approach to their studies or are in the pocket of the government.

 

[antipodean]

364,000 deaths is just absolute scaremongering. No country has come anywhere near to close to 1% of the population dying from covid. Some Argentine medical professionals must have a wholely unscientific approach to their studies or are in the pocket of the government.

Yeah I struggle to understand the calculation - even if you assume the death toll doubles every month or so then by the end of the year we would be on 144,000 or so. Peru is so far up to 30k (and has a population of 32m-ish) and climbing.

Regardless of the final number it is certain to be far higher than today and bring us into the same league or worse as the other countries this president has criticised over these past months which will just show that all of the pain and effort by almost the entire population over the better part of a year was ultimately for nothing. It is true that hospitals in Jujuy are already overwhelmed and in some places in Rio Negro they are already prioritising access to respirators, not a good sign of things to come. Once/ if the virus takes off in the interior I suspect we will see a heavier impact on the death toll since hospitals in AMBA have so far managed to do a pretty good job keeping people alive without facing saturation at any point.

 

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

The government were damned if they did and damned if they didn’t to be honest. Having seen what was going on in Europe at the time they didn’t have much choice.
Unfortunately in the long run it probably wasn’t the right thing to do because people have just got sick of the lock down at the wrong time.
Very easy to say in hindsight though,

 

[antipodean]

I don't think it is a question of hindsight at all since Argentina has been fortunate enough to have enjoyed ample time to observe and learn from other countries who took the hit before us. Many countries have adapted their policies as they have gone along to focus on things that work versus those that don't. Yet like in most things, the Argentine government insists on repeating the same tried and failed approaches time and again to make a political game out of it while insisting that it knows best and is better than all the rest - loosing credibility in the meantime, which is dangerous in a crisis situation since it causes people to disregard even the most basic of messages.

 

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

The problem in my view is that other countries in Europe introduced lockdown after coronavirus had been circulating undetected for a few months. It only became apparent once the virus became prevalent in the aged population resulting in a high death rate. This risked collapsing health care systems as a result. This made the virus look a lot more lethal that it is.

Faced with the evidence presented to them they had to do something, and went with a full ‘lockdown’ after that based on the evidence of increasing cases in the country it is very difficult to row back from that.
Of course comments from Fernandez regarding Sweden etc are unfortunate but since you live here should be viewed in context.
I’m sure you know enough Argentinians to know what they’re like.
My comment regarding hindsight is that surely if they would be able to make the decision now presented with what we know now the decision would surely be different.

 

[FrankPintor]

I was wondering when this Telegraph crap would hit the fan, sorry the forum... together with the Infobae twist that the Telegraph is somehow the same as the European press (https://www.infobae.com/politica/20...a-extensa-cuarentena-argentina-es-un-desastre).

There really isn't any roadmap for how to get out of quarantine, and BoJo the Telegraph's very own former fiction writer has shown the world some of the best ways not to do it.

The article is a succession of loony exaggerations, for example this: "cases and daily deaths continue to skyrocket". Well no they don't, as anyone who reviews either the coronavirus Wiki for Argentina or the FT coronavirus coverage can see. The cases are increasing by 1.5 - 2.5% per day, too much but certainly not "skyrocketing".

Then "The government compared itself favourably with Chile, Brazil and Peru, and even Europe..." - the comparisons are still favourable. ICU occupancy is still 60-70%, the health system in AMBA didn't collapse. That alone is a major success. Chile has been crowing over the apparent reduction in new cases, as if this were an achievement after having killed off their most vulnerable people, but their current case level of up to 2000 new cases per day shows that the coronavirus is far from being controlled there. Nevertheless Chile is sending people back to office work already. We'll see how that goes.

For some reason, the destinations for UK tour firms seem to be a major concern in this article, maybe it's sponsored content? There's also this gem: "I would love Argentina to follow Mexico, Costa Rica and Brazil's example...". Yeah, sure, Argentina is trying its best not to follow those examples, nor those of the UK or USA either, thanks very much. I hope the writer isn't holding his breath.

 

[on the brink]

Won't waste time reading The Telegraph. Or The Sun.

 

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

The LHR-EZE flight was always full of Telegraph reading middle class types on their way down to an Antarctic cruise to follow in the footsteps of Shackleton.... Sure the tour companies are losing out on substancial revenue.

 

[antipodean]

The problem in my view is that other countries in Europe introduced lockdown after coronavirus had been circulating undetected for a few months. It only became apparent once the virus became prevalent in the aged population resulting in a high death rate. This risked collapsing health care systems as a result. This made the virus look a lot more lethal that it is.

Faced with the evidence presented to them they had to do something, and went with a full ‘lockdown’ after that based on the evidence of increasing cases in the country it is very difficult to row back from that.
Of course comments from Fernandez regarding Sweden etc are unfortunate but since you live here should be viewed in context.
I’m sure you know enough Argentinians to know what they’re like.
My comment regarding hindsight is that surely if they would be able to make the decision now presented with what we know now the decision would surely be different.

I agree with your assessment about the virus and perceived threat, but don’t think it does much to justify the excessive measures here on account of the length of time they have persisted and the constant opportunity to review and change specific policies causing a multitude of disproportionate harm to the country.

Even when cases were fairly “isolated” the government failed to quickly adopt practices that were being effectively used abroad based on localized containment and testing, especially in the popular neighborhoods where lockdowns were not enforced, where the virus took hold in part out of fear for political repercussions from a core voter group.

Even the health minister admitted the outright ban on trivial things like outdoor individual excercise was for optics more than anything else - yet the government persisted for an extremely long period of time after knowing it was an ineffective measure.

Many other countries did go into full lockdowns but were far more progressive and diligent about reopening things proven and deemed to be lower risk, and today their death rates do not compare to Argentina, nor are their economies and societies as “wrecked”.

Even today the President criticizes CABA for the gradual opening it has finally achieved, despite keeping deaths and hospital occupation in check. Hence sadly with this administration I doubt things would have been much different as they have no clear objective. Old dog new tricks and all the rest of it...

Based on where we are now, at the end, I fear it is inevitable now that we will end up in the hall of shame along with countries like Peru who managed not to only let the virus kill a huge amount of people but also drew it out over such a long time that the effect on the living left behind is just as terrible.