Some thoughts

BlahBlah

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1)

I saw the venta ambulante increased 20% just last month, what is your observation on the reason for this?

Is it the worsening economy or is it the ever increasing flow of (illegal) immigrants from Africa?

Personally I think it's a bit of both but if I compare 2003-2005 with now I keep on seeing more black people who sell about anything. I assume that most are coming from Africa and are illegal.

2)

Is there a recession in Argentina if you look at the sight and sounds on the streets?

I do see a lot less foreigners but as far as I can see the Argentines are spending about the same then they did in the last few years. The shopping food courts, restaurants are still full and I don't see a lot of difference in that. Shopping seems to be a bit down, people keep on buying a lot of stuff in supermarkts and eventhough there are a lot more bars then in 2003-2005 there are still plenty of people that go out. Traffic also seems to be pretty similar to 2007-2008 and public transport is still pretty packed

3)

Are there many lay-offs?

I don't know, I don't think there is a huge increase in atleast Capital and zona norte. I also don't hear a lot about lay-offs nor do I people without a job. I do see slightly more begging people, but not a lot more

P.S. I am not really interested in figures but more about someones personal observation and especially the people who have been here more then a year
 

jp

Registered
The advertising market is pretty buoyant. Thats usually a pretty good indicator of recession and consumer spending and confidence levels. Ad spending is forecast to increase in latam over the next few years - one of the only regions in the world thats predicted to grow.
 

RobW

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jp said:
The advertising market is pretty buoyant. Thats usually a pretty good indicator of recession and consumer spending and confidence levels. Ad spending is forecast to increase in latam over the next few years - one of the only regions in the world thats predicted to grow.

Just curious, how do you know that? Are you in the field?
 

syngirl

Registered
BlahBlah said:
1)

I saw the venta ambulante increased 20% just last month, what is your observation on the reason for this?

Is it the worsening economy or is it the ever increasing flow of (illegal) immigrants from Africa?

Personally I think it's a bit of both but if I compare 2003-2005 with now I keep on seeing more black people who sell about anything. I assume that most are coming from Africa and are illegal.

It's the worsening economy. It's not increasing flow of Africans. I've seen maybe one more African a week than I would 4 years ago. I think you are assuming there's a lot higher numbers!

BlahBlah said:
2)

Is there a recession in Argentina if you look at the sight and sounds on the streets?

I do see a lot less foreigners but as far as I can see the Argentines are spending about the same then they did in the last few years. The shopping food courts, restaurants are still full and I don't see a lot of difference in that. Shopping seems to be a bit down, people keep on buying a lot of stuff in supermarkts and eventhough there are a lot more bars then in 2003-2005 there are still plenty of people that go out. Traffic also seems to be pretty similar to 2007-2008 and public transport is still pretty packed
Absolutely there is, cafes are shutting down even in our barrio and though there might be people at the shopping you don't see them at the counter buying. They aren't in the cines the way they were before, and if you read the news you'll see that everyday more and more bars are shutting down. The cost of NAFTA is regulated, so it hasn't increased much, and people without cars have no option but to take public transport even though the fares have increased.

BlahBlah said:
3)

Are there many lay-offs?

I don't know, I don't think there is a huge increase in atleast Capital and zona norte. I also don't hear a lot about lay-offs nor do I people without a job. I do see slightly more begging people, but not a lot more

P.S. I am not really interested in figures but more about someones personal observation and especially the people who have been here more then a year
I know a few friends that worked for major corporations that have lost their jobs. Friends that work at Nokia are on a reduced work week and have had their salaries frozen since October last year and have been told that there will be no increases this year. Another friend's company forced everyone to take a 15% cut in salary. Another friend runs a health clinic and has had to fire all but essential staff and will be shutting down the clinic this year and selling it. A friend that works in recruiting is now only working from 10am - 2pm. She used to work from 7am - 5pm. A friend that runs a Quinela (yes, a lottery shop) used to make enough to pay himself and 2 partners, now they are all on reduced salaries. Another friend used to work 4 days a week as a kinesiologist and another 2 for his grandfather's biz, now he is down to 2 days as a kinesio, his grandfather is taking him for the other days just so he gets some more $$.

On the other hand I do know a few people who have recently changed jobs and are doing well. But most people I know are feeling the pinch, and a lot I know are working towards emigrating elsewhere.
 

John.St

Registered
RobW said:
Just curious, how do you know that? Are you in the field?
I was in advertising for ten years way back in time and my experience is that it cuts both ways.

At the beginning of a recession the companies get frantic and try to keep their market share by advertising more, after about half a year they realize that they have reached the limit.

On the other hand, if the companies observe (or expect) growth, they increase advertising to stay up front in the buying spree that results from more money in people's pockets.

In between it's business as usual except for the occasional campaign to boost market share.
 

esllou

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My contribution to this thread is to state that I'm an illegal immigrant but from london so I suppose that's ok. :)
 

RWS

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esllou said:
My contribution to this thread is to state that I'm an illegal immigrant but from london so I suppose that's ok. :)
I do hope that the little yellow cartoon is to indicate sarcasm.
 

estudiolondres

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i do believe that we - argentinians- are used to crisis, therefore there are very few ocassions in which you'll see restaurants and bars empty...and that's mainly on those last days of the month
 

jimdepalermo

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I definitely sense the recession here - fewer people out on the streets, emptier restaurants, closed shops and bars, and even more Crisis chatter among Argentines than usual.

That said, this is nothing like the feeling in at least parts of the US. A couple months ago I was visiting relatives in Springfield, MO when the weather turned colder than expected. I went to the local mall looking for a jacket and found it eerily, TOTALLY empty. Even the elderly mall walkers had deserted it. Every 5th store was closed. Sales clerks in Macys outnumbered clients. Everything was marked down dramatically throughout the mall. As I was leaving, I stopped into the Banana Republic branch and, shocked to find no huge SALE signs, I asked a salesperson, jokingly, why they were the only store without big markdowns. She replied "Didn't anyone tell you - everything in the store is 30% off today, plus 10% if you open a charge account."

On a trip to the US last month, I found parts of western Virginia and North Carolina feeling a little less downtrodden, although everyone talked about unemployed neighbors and closed retail outlets.
 

citygirl

Registered
Have you been shopping here lately? Pretty much every store in the mall here is having huge sales - 50% off, etc.

I am noticing a fair amount of restaurants closing in my neighborhood. But then again, restaurants are always a risky business so not a that shocking.

I just hired 6 ppl here in Arg and most of the candidates I interviewed were currently working, only 1 had been laid-off.
 
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