Spike In Blue Rate

[sesamosinsal]

We'll probably have to agree to disagree about the media. All I'd ask is: How would you know what the alleged inflation rate if it weren't the national media? How would you know about the alleged black market dollar rate if it weren't for the national media? Media--in Argentina and elsewhere--is extraordinarily influential. While neither of us has done a study to measure its effects on inflation or the blue dollar, my hypothesis would be that they both go hand-in-hand. After all, I wouldn't have any idea what the price of a dollar was or how much the inflation was if I didn't logon to Ambito.com every morning...

Now.. saying that this is just because of confidence.. oh may god. She doesn't have a clue of anything or she has an agenda behind this. But do you want something even worse? Let's take Mercedes Marco Del Pont. She has a degree from the University of Buenos Aires and a Master's Degree at Yale. President of the Central Bank of Argentina.. and she was saying that money emission isn't related to inflation and that the price of the blue was spiking because of vacations. She knows she is lying, but still, she shouldn't be saying those things. She holds a position.. she needs to think before speaking.

Well, she's right. She said that printing money alone doesn't generate inflation; she did not say that printing money isn't "related" to inflation.

Quoting her Spanish:

“Es totalmente falso decir que la emisión genera inflación, los aumentos de precios tienen su raíz en la oferta y el sector externo”

Thus, printing money is certainly a symptom of inflation, but it isn't the cause. The causes could be inefficient production (not enough supply), unions, etc. There are many, and printing money is merely a response.

From the government's perspective, printing money is an "easy" way to fight rising prices, and keep social unrest at bay. After all, if people don't have enough money to pay for the things that they need, they will take to the streets. It obviously has gone to extremes at this point...

 

[Joe]

One of the problems with money printing is that the Cronies always get first crack at the freshly printed loot. This is certainly not a problem confined to Argentina. In the US, the Cronies that get first crack at the new money are the banks and they enrich themselves mightily from it (aka Wall St. Bonuses). Those unfortunate souls on fixed income are lucky if they can pick up a few of the falling crumbs (aka trickle-down). In Argentina, the politically connected unions and other Cronies benefit from the money printing, the bulk of the population is again left with the crumbs.

 

[citygirl]

We'll probably have to agree to disagree about the media. All I'd ask is: How would you know what the alleged inflation rate if it weren't the national media? How would you know about the alleged black market dollar rate if it weren't for the national media? Media--in Argentina and elsewhere--is extraordinarily influential. While neither of us has done a study to measure its effects on inflation or the blue dollar, my hypothesis would be that they both go hand-in-hand. After all, I wouldn't have any idea what the price of a dollar was or how much the inflation was if I didn't logon to Ambito.com every morning...

Well, I would know the inflation rate b/c I see the prices every day. And I would know the price of the blue dollar b/c it is talked about with friends, family, people on the streets. Someone earlier mentioned Venezuela. Case in point - illegal to be discussed, yet everyone knows there is a blue market and what the rate is. Hell, when I wen there a million years ago (2007), within hours of getting off the plane, I knew how much my dollars were worth on the unofficial exchange and not to to change them at any official place.

I'm not disregarding that media has influence to sway opinion but I think you are far overestimating its importance in this - people rely on their persona experiences as much/if not more than what they read. I know I laugh when I read an article in a pro-K publication about how there is no inflation or how great the economy is doing, etc. People do have the ability to read and judge.

 

[Joe]

It's amazing how similar extremists governments are - whether they are on the left or right. Tricky Dick was always complaining how the media was ruining the country. His VP, Spiro, spoke about the "Nattering Nabobs of Negativism."

How do you say "Nattering Nabob of Negativism" in Argento?

Answer: Clarin.

 

[sesamosinsal]

Well, I would know the inflation rate b/c I see the prices every day. And I would know the price of the blue dollar b/c it is talked about with friends, family, people on the streets. Someone earlier mentioned Venezuela. Case in point - illegal to be discussed, yet everyone knows there is a blue market and what the rate is. Hell, when I wen there a million years ago (2007), within hours of getting off the plane, I knew how much my dollars were worth on the unofficial exchange and not to to change them at any official place.

I'm not disregarding that media has influence to sway opinion but I think you are far overestimating its importance in this - people rely on their persona experiences as much/if not more than what they read. I know I laugh when I read an article in a pro-K publication about how there is no inflation or how great the economy is doing, etc. People do have the ability to read and judge.

The data show that media is extremely influential, perhaps even more than you're aware. And while talking to friends and seeing the prices increase are interesting points, who told your friends about the inflation or the blue dollar? Who told the store owners? How do you know your friends are right? For example, would you vote for a president based on what your friends say?

From a Federal Reserve working paper:

Doms and Morin show that while consumer sentiment is affected by economic fundamentals, media reporting also plays a role. Specifically, they find that deviations in sentiment from economic fundamentals are partially explained by constructed indexes of the tone and volume of news reporting, which may or may not align with what is happening in the economy. In fact, there are several periods when reporting on the economy appears to be extreme relative to economic fundamentals. Consequently, people's views about the economy deviate for short periods of time from what economic fundamentals would suggest.

Let me ask you this: Why do governments care about the media in the first place? Why do the Ks hate Clarin? Why does Correa go after journalists? Why does Obama take time out of his campaign schedule to meet up with the CEO of Comcast?

And if the media here were doing their job well, the last thing they'd be advising everyone to do is save in dollars...

 

[John.St]

We'll probably have to agree to disagree about the media. All I'd ask is: How would you know what the alleged inflation rate if it weren't the national media?

I can just look at my thick wad of shop tickets and compare prices of food, etc. over time. I have a spreadsheet with prices of the articles I use the most, entering the changing prices (when I remember it - I could go through all the tickets, but I am too lazy and a complete time series will tell nothing new as prices has never gone down in these 4+ years).

An example (prices range from 3 April 2013 back to 2 March 2009):

Leche semi descremada in plastic bag: 7.30 6.83 6.50 6.25 6.04 5.75 5.50 5.25 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00 4.10 3.95 3.80 3.60 3.30 3.20 3.10 2.59

All I get from the media as regards inflation is the analysis made by the Argentine Torcuato Di Tella University professor Guido Sandleris and his economy team. They are in conformance with my raw data from the actual purchaces.

How would you know about the alleged black market dollar rate if it weren't for the national media? ... After all, I wouldn't have any idea what the price of a dollar was or how much the inflation was if I didn't logon to Ambito.com every morning...

I first logged into Ambito a week ago. Before that I received the information from friends who exchanged dollars at the blue rate.

Thus, printing money is certainly a symptom of inflation, but it isn't the cause..

The general cause is unbalance between amount of products and amount of fiat money, although several special cases exist.

 

[John.St]

Let me ask you this: Why do governments care about the media in the first place? Why do the Ks hate Clarin?

Governments care about the media because they reveal irregularities.

"Sospechosos viajes de Boudou: el Senado pagó viáticos por destinos que no visitó
La Cámara alta autorizó gastos de entre $38.000 y $140.000 por recorridos que no estuvieron en la agenda del vicepresidente; serias inconsistencias en las fechas de los documentos" http://www.lanacion...._campaign=NLPol

According to La Nacion, based on the dates on bills, Boudou is able to be in several places at the same time.
e.g. in Vietnam and Tierra del Fuego on the same dates; in Switzerland and Mar del Plata on the same dates.


The Kirchners hate Clarin because it sided with the farmers and forced la presidenta to back off from a raise of export taxes on farm produce.

The present government seems to act on emotions instead of rational calculations.

 

[sesamosinsal]

Governments care about the media because they reveal irregularities.
.....
The present government seems to act on emotions instead of rational calculations.

I completely agree with you, and I think you'd probably agree with my point that the media is very influential. Many people reveal irregularities, but it is the media that has--until the advent of the internet perhaps--given them a voice.

This would include lies and/or inaccurate information.

 

[citygirl]

I don't think anyone would argue that media can't be a heavy influence but really - do you need to be "told" about inflation? I feel it every single day. I know what it is b/c I can compare what I paid for X product over the last few years and how it has changed. I know what the blue rate is b/c I send money to the cueva to be changed. I don't even bother checking online.

Sure, media can hype a story or assign importance to something that is a statistical blip but I think all of us can agree that inflation and the dollar blue aren't either of those things.

 

[Rich One]

The Fourth Power . the media...! There was a saying here that no Government can withstand three negative Clarin covers..? Exepct for the Teflon K's