sleazemerchant
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- Apr 26, 2013
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Im not sure about that video. If impression is the cause of inflation, how about the enormous quantity of countries that doubled and triplied their emissions and with almost no inflation? didnt that happened with the UK and the US, and one of the consequences in the US was deflation? Impression not necesarily equals inflation. That video is wrong.
In the USA there was a giant "bursting" of a credit-driven asset bubble; the general deflation that would have occurred across the economy would have been devastating and may have made the 1930's depression look tame in comparison. The Fed created demand and thus inflated the popped asset bubble by buying said "popped" toxic assets and by expanding the money supply. Inflation did not occur because the increase in the monetary supply was swimming upstream against deflationary tendencies and because of massive demand for US government securities at near zero interest rates.
In the case of Argentina reckless government fiscal and monetary policy is the initial cause of the inflation; at this point, with the inflation so ingrained in the economy it has become an inertial issue. Demand push and wage push factors drive primarily drive this; Argentines have nowhere to put their money except to buy consumer goods and services; demand outstrips supply so prices rise, the resulting price increases call for more wage push, increases the government deficit (via increased salaries) and requires the printing of more money, which devalues the currency.
The way out for Argentina is to initially raise interest rates far above inflation (40-45%), which will cool demand and lower inflation as a result of less currency chasing the supply of goods and services. As inflation slows, wage push will also slow which will facilitate the BCRA to stop increasing the monetary supply to cover government expenditures which will lead to a stabilized currency and less demand for USD. Naturally, the current administration will never implement such orthodox economic measures as social unrest is almost guaranteed.