The Argie knife in the back didn't take long

[Konner_Long]

Shore up the Peso before the elections then pull the rug out from everyone if the result does not go as planned?
Or short term bets on the Peso strengthening without ever having to transfer the funds. Everyone makes a few million without the need to even open the chequebook?

Either way, this "unconditional" support sounds a lot like Chinas "unconditional" support of Russia. We wait for the "eternal friendship" remarks from the USA towards Argentina now.

 

[FrankPintor]

Shore up the Peso before the elections then pull the rug out from everyone if the result does not go as planned?
Or short term bets on the Peso strengthening without ever having to transfer the funds. Everyone makes a few million without the need to even open the chequebook?

I've been trying to buff up my crystal ball... I very much suspect the result (on October 26) will not go as planned, and the rug will be pulled.

This is by no means a rigourous analysis, but the comments in my IG news feeds (Clarin, La Nacion, Infobae) have gone to being almost uniformly negative now. Before you'd see "te banco mi presidente", or "te votaria de nuevo", now the chatterati regret their vote, and are damning in their condemnation of Ms. 3% ("alta coimera"), of the toadying to Trump (with the conditions attached to a bailout), and the fawning over Israel.

The extent of the perceived corruption (3%, $LIBRA, customs) seems to have Argentinians very pissed off, and that's not something that will change in a month of taking out even more loans. A realization is dawning that the grandchildren of today's generation will still be paying off Milei's debt. And Argentinians were never really up for Milei's culture wars anyway, his attempts to rile people up don't really go anywhere.

I also note that while various ministerial IG accounts allow comments, one of the most visible, and certainly the most atrocious liar, the ministry for human capital, has disallowed them. That's not a sign of a confident government.

As you say, no funds have been transferred, and I don't think they will be. It's all bluster for now. And it appears that the US support doesn't actually have that much firepower anyway. October 27 will be interesting.

 

[carride]

I've been trying to buff up my crystal ball... I very much suspect the result (on October 26) will not go as planned, and the rug will be pulled.

This is the best quote from the FT article posted today after clearly explaining a lot of other more technical details.

to paraphrase one of the Argentine president’s idols, that the problem with Mileism is you eventually run out of other people’s money.

Was posted in this other thread here today

Other people’s money, and the problem with Mileism

https://www.ft.com/content/5f4bb8d6-e93c-4bf0-b0ae-f459255eb8c7 Archived version

baexpats.org

 

[Konner_Long]

I've been trying to buff up my crystal ball... I very much suspect the result (on October 26) will not go as planned, and the rug will be pulled.

This is by no means a rigourous analysis, but the comments in my IG news feeds (Clarin, La Nacion, Infobae) have gone to being almost uniformly negative now. Before you'd see "te banco mi presidente", or "te votaria de nuevo", now the chatterati regret their vote, and are damning in their condemnation of Ms. 3% ("alta coimera"), of the toadying to Trump (with the conditions attached to a bailout), and the fawning over Israel.

The extent of the perceived corruption (3%, $LIBRA, customs) seems to have Argentinians very pissed off, and that's not something that will change in a month of taking out even more loans. A realization is dawning that the grandchildren of today's generation will still be paying off Milei's debt. And Argentinians were never really up for Milei's culture wars anyway, his attempts to rile people up don't really go anywhere.

I also note that while various ministerial IG accounts allow comments, one of the most visible, and certainly the most atrocious liar, the ministry for human capital, has disallowed them. That's not a sign of a confident government.

As you say, no funds have been transferred, and I don't think they will be. It's all bluster for now. And it appears that the US support doesn't actually have that much firepower anyway. October 27 will be interesting.

Noticed that as well. The mood has definitely shifted and the "loan" is being seen as selling out to EE.UU

Milei didn't realise that he was the "anyone but them" vote and not the populist vote. If he played the political game more like Macron in France he would be looking at a very different situation for this election. He did not have the political or public capital to upset as many people as he did.

 

[nikad]

I've been trying to buff up my crystal ball... I very much suspect the result (on October 26) will not go as planned, and the rug will be pulled.

This is by no means a rigourous analysis, but the comments in my IG news feeds (Clarin, La Nacion, Infobae) have gone to being almost uniformly negative now. Before you'd see "te banco mi presidente", or "te votaria de nuevo", now the chatterati regret their vote, and are damning in their condemnation of Ms. 3% ("alta coimera"), of the toadying to Trump (with the conditions attached to a bailout), and the fawning over Israel.

The extent of the perceived corruption (3%, $LIBRA, customs) seems to have Argentinians very pissed off, and that's not something that will change in a month of taking out even more loans. A realization is dawning that the grandchildren of today's generation will still be paying off Milei's debt. And Argentinians were never really up for Milei's culture wars anyway, his attempts to rile people up don't really go anywhere.

I also note that while various ministerial IG accounts allow comments, one of the most visible, and certainly the most atrocious liar, the ministry for human capital, has disallowed them. That's not a sign of a confident government.

As you say, no funds have been transferred, and I don't think they will be. It's all bluster for now. And it appears that the US support doesn't actually have that much firepower anyway. October 27 will be interesting.

I don't think people here are pissed off due to Libra or 3% scandal, but mostly due to the economy tanking, public health and university not being funded ( from left to right wing all Argentine support and have always been proud of ), poverty, lies ( no free market ), hard to believe inflation numbers that do not correspond to what most people are actually experiencing, beating up retirees when protesting, among other things. I personally do not support this or the Ks, but to each their own.

 

[nikad]

You can love them or hate them, but the Ks used Peron and Evita to back their existence. Milei names former president Menem that not only was the reason why were ever had a corralito, but was also peronist. Milei won an election because people were pissed and there weren't any good alternative. I a lot of his voters, reluctantly voted for him because they would never vote peronistas, and now they are regretting it. If Macri had been a candidate, he might have won.

 

[FrankPintor]

This is the best quote from the FT article posted today after clearly explaining a lot of other more technical details.

to paraphrase one of the Argentine president’s idols, that the problem with Mileism is you eventually run out of other people’s money.

Yes, indeed. How ironic that this exact expression is used to beat up socialists (and social democrats, and actual liberals, and anyone left of centre basically).

So now we've come full circle, the extreme right has run out of other people's money. It would almost be funny if I wasn't here.

The depressing thing is that there hasn't been any change in Congress. The same politicians that accepted Milei's agenda last year and let him govern by decree just got pissed off by his continual insults. As well as the voters. What a fcuking tool. All we needed was some governability.

 

[FrankPintor]

I don't think people here are pissed off due to Libra or 3% scandal, but mostly due to the economy tanking, public health and university not being funded ( from left to right wing all Argentine support and have always been proud of ), poverty, lies ( no free market ), hard to believe inflation numbers that do not correspond to what most people are actually experiencing, beating up retirees when protesting, among other things. I personally do not support this or the Ks, but to each their own.

It's a long list. I quoted the chatterati, you probably have a better grasp of what the average Argentinian is thinking.

 

[LuckyLuke]

I don't think people here are pissed off due to Libra or 3% scandal, but mostly due to the economy tanking, public health and university not being funded ( from left to right wing all Argentine support and have always been proud of ), poverty, lies ( no free market ), hard to believe inflation numbers that do not correspond to what most people are actually experiencing, beating up retirees when protesting, among other things. I personally do not support this or the Ks, but to each their own.

Exactly...if you are going to make the pueblo sacrifice via unemployment, subsidy cancellation, prepaga insanity and privatization then at least let them have the public safety nets to catch them. Since when were Jubilados, Medicos and Docentes part of "la casta". Just very little foresight there...

 

[LuckyLuke]

Yes, indeed. How ironic that this exact expression is used to beat up socialists (and social democrats, and actual liberals, and anyone left of centre basically).

So now we've come full circle, the extreme right has run out of other people's money. It would almost be funny if I wasn't here.

The depressing thing is that there hasn't been any change in Congress. The same politicians that accepted Milei's agenda last year and let him govern by decree just got pissed off by his continual insults. As well as the voters. What a fcuking tool. All we needed was some governability.

IMO, there was never enough dollars to begin with or he would have dollarized like he campaigned on. It's really a shame, because if he had moderated a little to show that the path could be done responsibly (over a longer timeline) then he or at least another Libertad candidate could have had some chance to carry the torch. Instead, the party's true moment to shine has been tarnished by the collective trauma of trying to unwind decades of public spending while adjusting everything at the same time in some sort of spectacular masochism.

All this new debt to keep up appearances will invariably be paid back through continued stagnation and lack of investment.