The Argie knife in the back didn't take long

[mageesa]

This is by no means a rigourous analysis, but the comments in my IG news feeds (Clarin, La Nacion, Infobae) have gone to being almost uniformly negative now. Before you'd see "te banco mi presidente", or "te votaria de nuevo", now the chatterati regret their vote, and are damning in their condemnation of Ms. 3% ("alta coimera"), of the toadying to Trump (with the conditions attached to a bailout), and the fawning over Israel.

I spend too much time looking at Reddit, and I've seen the same thing. I wasn't too surprised when Milei won, though I thought there was a slight edge for Massa.

Among my IRL Argie acquaintances, there was a mix, but tending anti-Milei. I meet a lot of musicians (anti-Milei) and people who want to practice their English (pro-Milei). Taxi and Uber drivers, as well as tango dancers, seemed evenly split.

But on Reddit there was a LOT of energy for LLA, whether real or artificial, which felt very much like when Trump won the first time.

For the second Trump election, online felt like it does now for Milei: less vocal supporters, more criticism and 'anti' sentiment (people who like Milei's ideas, but don't like him any more), and a small group of ride-or-die fans. But Trump pulled it off, so there may be a vast reservoir of 'offline' support we don't see for LLA either IRL or online.

 

[FrankPintor]

IMO, there was never enough dollars to begin with or he would have dollarized like he campaigned on. It's really a shame, because if he had moderated a little to show that the path could be done responsibly (over a longer timeline) then he or at least another Libertad candidate could have had some chance to carry the torch. Instead, the party's true moment to shine has been tarnished by the collective trauma of trying to unwind decades of public spending while adjusting everything at the same time in some sort of spectacular masochism.

All this new debt to keep up appearances will invariably be paid back through continued stagnation and lack of investment.

I don't know... it's a bit difficult to argue there weren't enough Dollars when Argentinians have hundreds of billions tucked away under the mattress. And they were happy to take them out as well, to go on holidays, just not in Argentina.

More incentives, more creativity, less time being a nutcase, would possibly all have helped.

 

[mageesa]

I don't know... it's a bit difficult to argue there weren't enough Dollars when Argentinians have hundreds of billions tucked away under the mattress. And they were happy to take them out as well, to go on holidays, just not in Argentina.

More incentives, more creativity, less time being a nutcase, would possibly all have helped.

In my opinion the "nutcase" aspect is even more important here than in the USA. People seem to have no confidence in the government (well, they're confident the government is a bunch of thieves), so they may keep the money abroad or in the mattress. Even some of my vaguely pro-Milei friends think there may be another corralito on the horizon.

In the USA we may not have faith in the government, but it's a lumbering beast. Even with a nutcase in charge, it won't shift directions quickly. Even if you're hacking away at it with a chainsaw. And banks seem generally trustworthy.

In the USA there's around 3 million federal employees for 350 million people (.009). In Argentina, 310,000 federal workers for 46 million people (.007). Not a huge difference proportionally. Milei has cut 50,000 federal workers. Trump cut 300,000; 1% compared to Milei's 17%. The 'Deep State' of the US government is very, very big.

 

[bigbadwolf]

I. Milei has cut 50,000 federal workers. Trump cut 300,000; 1% compared to Milei's 17%. The 'Deep State' of the US government is very, very big.

You mean 10% compared to Milei's 17%.

 

[mageesa]

You mean 10% compared to Milei's 17%

Ah! You are correct! My point still stands but barely. Now I'm more worried about the us government getting things done.no more math when I'm about to leave the house

 

[Ruta Otto]

I don't think the $20 billion swap is going to happen. There are a lot of pissed off farmers who not only lost their best customer, China, to Argentina and Brazil, leaving them to plow their crops back into the field, but were also relying on large grants from the Biden Build Back Better legislation for farm machinery purchases. This was yanked by Trump because it made Biden look good, and now farmers are facing insurmountable debt. Now they find out that not only are they about to lose everything, Argentina, a direct competitor, is also getting 20 billion dollars to boot. That's why the export tax was reinstated so soon, so as to smooth things over with Trump and Bessent, but the damage has already been done.

 

[carride]

I don't think the $20 billion swap is going to happen. There are a lot of pissed off farmers who not only lost their best customer, China, to Argentina and Brazil,

They lost China customer months ago when China retaliated by not buying. They did this because of Trump tarriffs on imports from China. Nothing to do with Argentina at the time. Argentina is now in the equation since China is buying where it makes the best deal.

leaving them to plow their crops back into the field, but were also relying on large grants from the Biden Build Back Better legislation for farm machinery purchases. This was yanked by Trump because it made Biden look good, and now farmers are facing insurmountable debt. Now they find out that not only are they about to lose everything, Argentina, a direct competitor, is also getting 20 billion dollars to boot. That's why the export tax was reinstated so soon, so as to smooth things over with Trump and Bessent, but the damage has already been done.

Luckily Trump has promised to subsidize all those US farmers while he uses them as pawns in his tariff based trade war. They just need to sit back and enjoy the flow of Trump supplied handouts that he is earning from tariff taxing the other US people who are rich enough to purchase things from outside the country

 

[LuckyLuke]

I don't think the $20 billion swap is going to happen. There are a lot of pissed off farmers who not only lost their best customer, China, to Argentina and Brazil, leaving them to plow their crops back into the field, but were also relying on large grants from the Biden Build Back Better legislation for farm machinery purchases. This was yanked by Trump because it made Biden look good, and now farmers are facing insurmountable debt. Now they find out that not only are they about to lose everything, Argentina, a direct competitor, is also getting 20 billion dollars to boot. That's why the export tax was reinstated so soon, so as to smooth things over with Trump and Bessent, but the damage has already been done.

While the market and Milei's team by extension may be panicking about the possible loss of this swap deal, it's actually good news for Argentina. Not only did they export it's agricultural products to a willing customer, which is positive trade, they sabotaged their own chance at adding more debt to the insurmountable pile Argentina already has. It's a win-win really for current and future generations. Let the markets eat cake.

Trump also did Argentines a favor by demanding Milei actually collaborate with existing parties to successfully govern. Which, not coincidentally, saw Milei subsequently meeting with Macri to reestablish PRO alliances.

 

[steveinbsas]

Perhaps - just perhaps - Trump's trade war shouldn't have been started at all, or at least not without professional analysis of the consequences beforehand, drawing on among other things what happened during Trump's trade war with China in Trump 45.

For those who may not be familiar with Trump's "trade war" with China, which began in January of 2018, here's a summary;

China–United States trade war - Wikipedia https://share.google/o03FUhzOaHTeI436K

It's worth noting that the Biden administration kept the tarrifs in place, as indicated in the article.