The coming USA currency crisis and Argentina

[orwellian]

My bet is political aspirations for 2011. I don't think that Martin Redrado was trying to "defend the country" or something, he is your typical neocon/Chicago Boy.

What I don't understand is why a "left-wing" president wants to pay back IMF loans, and a neocon central bankers refuses to do it. Shouldn't it be the other way around?

 

[marksoc]

What I don't understand is why a "left-wing" president wants to pay back IMF loans, and a neocon central bankers refuses to do it. Shouldn't it be the other way around?

Kirchner is not left-wing, is Peronista (capitalism of friends, certain attitudes favorable to the poor, etc). The Bi-centennial fund would make possible to pay less in interests. The opposition is not interested in making the next year an easy one for the current administration. They NEED an economic crisis to win the elections.

 

[marksoc]

Neo-con and neo-liberal is the same. It is the privatization of publich wealth, the granting of public gifts to certain overlords, the destruction of the public, all of it disguised as "free market" thinking. These people spouse a "supply-side" view of the economy and talk about a suppossed "trickle-down" effect. Cavallo was also in Harvard, and we still refer to him as a Chicago Boy.

From Wikipedia:

Martin Redrado:

He earned a Master's Degree in Public Administration from Harvard University, and was brought on by the Wall Street investment firm Salomon Brothers, where he served as adviser on their handling of the privatizations of British Airways, British Gas and the French Compagnie Financière de Suez, during the late 1980s. He worked for Los Angeles-based Security Pacific Bank until 1991, in which capacity he oversaw the profit sharing plan for Enersis employees, and advised on the privatization of Telmex.[1]

 

[citygirl]

It's an interesting write up about the situation here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqJUiQVzklgk


Oh & re dollar: I'm not in any way disagreeing that diversifying one's holdings is a good idea. I had a friend tell me it in 2006 and I'm quite glad I listened and moved some savings from dollars to euros.

However, there is not going to be a sudden and abrupt disengagement from the dollar. The US is the world's biggest economy - it is in no-ones interest to hurt it, especially as it regains its economic footing. After all, who do you think is buying all those goods that the rest of the world is exporting?

 

[orwellian]

Kirchner is not left-wing, is Peronista

Yeah but peronismo comprises of both left and right. According to Wikipedia her husband, former president Néstor Kirchner has proposed the entry of the party in Socialist International.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justicialist_Party

If that isn't left-wing I don't know what is. Although I agree she isn't much of a socialist, thus the quotes on the word.

The opposition is not interested in making the next year an easy one for the current administration. They NEED an economic crisis to win the elections.

Ok, that seems plausible.

 

[orwellian]

It's an interesting write up about the situation here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqJUiQVzklgk

What? The guy is not stepping down?

Oh & re dollar: I'm not in any way disagreeing that diversifying one's holdings is a good idea. I had a friend tell me it in 2006 and I'm quite glad I listened and moved some savings from dollars to euros.

Well, know it's time to listen again. Look at the sorry state of the euro countries and there isn't much future to talk of with that currency either.

However, there is not going to be a sudden and abrupt disengagement from the dollar. The US is the world's biggest economy - it is in no-ones interest to hurt it, especially as it regains its economic footing. After all, who do you think is buying all those goods that the rest of the world is exporting?

It hasn't regained anything. The recovery you see is because of the stimulus plan that is funded by printing and borrowing money. And it's a weak "recovery" at that.
The U.S is buying those goods with borrowed money. This is slowly coming to an end and eventually it will lead to a lot less imports, as there will be no money to buy the goods with.
Nobody is claiming a "disengagement" will happen suddenly, but it's happening right now, slowly.

 

[redrum]

You make some very interesting claims but I remain skeptical and unconvinced. It's entirely possible that you're on to something but more of your assertions need to be substantiated. For example, how do you know that the government of china is encouraging its populace to guy gold? Citations would be nice.

Definitely an interesting post.

objectiveous.....you can google anything i say....you'll find plenty of info out there that the mainstream press ignores.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2145135/china_asks_citizens_to_buy_gold_and.html?cat=3

again, with the overwhelming amount of information and fundamental economic indicators out there, i'm not sure how anybody can think the dollar is safe.

 

[redrum]

It's an interesting write up about the situation here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqJUiQVzklgk


Oh & re dollar: I'm not in any way disagreeing that diversifying one's holdings is a good idea. I had a friend tell me it in 2006 and I'm quite glad I listened and moved some savings from dollars to euros.

However, there is not going to be a sudden and abrupt disengagement from the dollar. The US is the world's biggest economy - it is in no-ones interest to hurt it, especially as it regains its economic footing. After all, who do you think is buying all those goods that the rest of the world is exporting?

citygirl - what you say sounds logical of course....world's largest economy....nobody's interest to hurt it......however permit me if i may....it's quite naive thinking.

world's biggest economy does not mean that it cannot be brought down. it's being brought down right now. of course, it's not going to happen overnight. as you say as it's simply too large and too many players have too many chips in the game.

we are however currently seeing a decoupling from the dollar by many large players i.e. china, the opec nations and central banks. they are limiting their loans to us while spending their dollar reserves, buying up precious natural resources.

who is going to buy all that stuff you say? well, somebody else of course. it just won't be americans. the world economy will reset and go on as always. the US just won't be at the center of it. most likely china will allow the yuan to appreciate, which will create a chinese middle class, which will buy the goods you're speaking of.

"regains its economic footing'? and how exactly will it do that? how can an economy that has no jobs, that has no manufacturing going to "regain its footing"? please explain how an economy with GDP of (1) and (2) consumer spending followed by government spending respectively - going to regain its footing.

please explain how a govt with 80 trillion in long term debt obligations is going to bounce back without devaluing the currency.

citygirl the US is broke. we've been broke for a long time now. we are living off of loans....if not loans then we simply print the money. do you understand what the consequences are when you create money out of thin air without having an equal increase in economic production? the dollar's value goes down and inflation sets in.

there will be no recovery, at least not in the sense that people think there will be.

i suggest that everybody watch Money as Debt for a great explanation on how money is created through fractional reserve banking. i suggest that we all learn about how a product is created out of thin air then we are charged interest on it by the bankers.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?d...19&ei=47otSsixOIO0rgK80fSxCg&q=money+as+debt#

learn about what inflation really is and how it works. most of us know the term "inflation" but how many can really explain it and understand how it robs us of our purchasing power on a daily basis.