The decline of domestic tourism in Argentina

[Che1990]

Which gym is dead? Every smartfit I go to is packed to the gills with queues for every machine

AlwaysGym on Guatemala. It now costs 60k per month when you pay the full year upfront in 3 cuotas, cash obviously. That promo gets you 5 months free, so I guess a month would be around 100k+ (too tired to do the maths) with "pay as you go".

Back in Nove 2023, when I signed up for th first time, it was 7k per month, with the dollar at 1000 pesos. Most people who live in Palermo, locals, will have at least some dollars saved, so back then, you changed one crisp hundred dollar bill and got a year's gym membership.

Not anymore.

It used to be AWFUL anytime of day, but these days, you can work out comofrtable in peak hours. The plus side at least.

 

[LuckyLuke]

But is there really that much money stashed away?

Walking around Palermo is bleak these days, the amount of commercial places with the shutters down and ALQUILA sign up is crazy.

I can also work out comfortably at 6/7/8pm in the gym now as it’s dead. Previously those hours were horrendous.

We keeping hearing that there are all these dollars, but I don’t see that they are being spent here at least.

Personally, anyone who had some dollars stashed away probably now have none. Those who had a lot of dollars stashed away probably still have them (maybe less now). There are converging points in the commercial market that I think bear some analysis.

1) Mercado Libre is a rising consumer trend. This will eventually decimate commercial real estate much like it was in the USA. I've followed threads where users talk about not buying anything beyond perishable goods in person anymore.

2) Rise of online tiendas. Can't afford the rent, put the store online, you can even deliver it to your customer personally. Want to cut hair, I can go to your house, want to order groceries - Coto digital. On and on, the trend is clear.

3) Competing imports. Even if the item was previously in demand to walking traffic, imports have now changed consumer taste to previously unavailable merchandise. Lower cost aside, no existing store is selling it (yet).

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Milei should have more carefully opened up imports to PYMEs first with bulk orders to allow them to compete with domestic brands without obliterating every storefront with direct customer purchases.

Where do we go from here? My guess...empty storefronts will be converted to residential if possible. This same trend is happening in abandoned office towers in the USA (where conversion is feasible). Empty domestic manufacturing warehouses will become future ML fulfillment houses.

 

[LuckyLuke]

Still a far way from another 2001. And given the amount of money that is held under the mattress or in cash and not deposited, it wouldn't be impactful. So its really not an option at the moment. It would also be the end of any type of improvement for probably 2 generations (40- 50 years).

The 2001 comparison is IMO a tired argument. There is no peg this time around and nobody, I mean nobody seems to recall that beyond dollar redemption values there was a limit of cash withdrawals in pesos and the vast majority of stores had no POSNET for card processing. This caused an artificial collapse of consumption by restricting even pesos from circulating. Something that would clearly not happen right now, where the majority of people don't even use cash anymore.

 

[SlowWalker]

Which gym is dead? Every smartfit I go to is packed to the gills with queues for every machine

By now many people stop their new years resolution. On top, its approaching winter not summer here.

Smartfit gyms full of gorilas does not even make it to anecdote status nor data point status. Also, gorilas prefer first to travel abroad. They LOVE Miami, then Europe. There are some places in Patagonia they will tolerate, but otherwise no. Finally, the spending habits of gorilas does not provide any real indicator re the economy and how well or not it is doing. Gorilas are always doing well.

"packed to the gills" is an english saying. It wasn't a spelling error for gorillas, if that is what you think he was referring people that go to the gym as.

 

[SlowWalker]

But is there really that much money stashed away?

Walking around Palermo is bleak these days, the amount of commercial places with the shutters down and ALQUILA sign up is crazy.

I can also work out comfortably at 6/7/8pm in the gym now as it’s dead. Previously those hours were horrendous.

We keeping hearing that there are all these dollars, but I don’t see that they are being spent here at least.

Until the price of safety deposit boxes is that of a normal country, There is still cash.
I think people use it more sparingly than just every day expenses.
Either they need a bit to get to the end of the month, not to splash around. Or they are using it for vacations abroad, etc.

 

[SlowWalker]

Personally, anyone who had some dollars stashed away probably now have none. Those who had a lot of dollars stashed away probably still have them (maybe less now). There are converging points in the commercial market that I think bear some analysis.

1) Mercado Libre is a rising consumer trend. This will eventually decimate commercial real estate much like it was in the USA. I've followed threads where users talk about not buying anything beyond perishable goods in person anymore.

2) Rise of online tiendas. Can't afford the rent, put the store online, you can even deliver it to your customer personally. Want to cut hair, I can go to your house, want to order groceries - Coto digital. On and on, the trend is clear.

3) Competing imports. Even if the item was previously in demand to walking traffic, imports have now changed consumer taste to previously unavailable merchandise. Lower cost aside, no existing store is selling it (yet).

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Milei should have more carefully opened up imports to PYMEs first with bulk orders to allow them to compete with domestic brands without obliterating every storefront with direct customer purchases.

Where do we go from here? My guess...empty storefronts will be converted to residential if possible. This same trend is happening in abandoned office towers in the USA (where conversion is feasible). Empty domestic manufacturing warehouses will become future ML fulfillment houses.

Agree with a bunch.
1) Stores aren't offering any value added, and the range of prices the same good goes for is incredible. Ferreterias are way cheaper than Easy (like home depot here), Carnicerias/Verdularias/Kioscos are way cheaper than supermarkets. They really are not providing a reason to shop there for most. Other stores similar, the variability in pricing is too much and its too easy given the limited versions of things in the country, you know its the same you are buying on Mercado Libre at a fraction of the price and its delivered within a day or 3.

2) Yup. The podologia I got to does house calls now and she said it can be better pay than when she works in the clinics or aestheticians for a day.

3) I do think there will always be some store fronts for things because people will want it now, others don't want to buy online, some still like the idea of buying with cash. I also doubt they will become residential. Rents may drop and more cafes, restaurants and other services and goods will come in. I don't see store fronts becoming residential in other places. Worse case, they would have to buy the building and then knock them down to put up a condo.

 

[JMHarris]

By now many people stop their new years resolution. On top, its approaching winter not summer here.


"packed to the gills" is an english saying. It wasn't a spelling error for gorillas, if that is what you think he was referring people that go to the gym as.

No, I meant gorilas, as in packed to the gills with gorilas.

 

[SlowWalker]

No, I meant gorilas, as in packed to the gills with gorilas.

So you're making fun of, insulting, mocking people or whatever you want to call it, that are going to a place to try and improve themselves.

The gym community is a pretty good and accepting group of people.
Even the biggest buffest dudes are almost always willing to help you out, show you proper form etc.

I'm not sure what was to be gained by your comment.

 

[JMHarris]

So you're making fun of, insulting, mocking people or whatever you want to call it, that are going to a place to try and improve themselves.

The gym community is a pretty good and accepting group of people.
Even the biggest buffest dudes are almost always willing to help you out, show you proper form etc.

I'm not sure what was to be gained by your comment.

Look up the Argentine meaning of gorila. And yes, I am insulting them, just by using the term.

 

[Stephano]

Agree with a bunch.
1) Stores aren't offering any value added, and the range of prices the same good goes for is incredible. Ferreterias are way cheaper than Easy (like home depot here), Carnicerias/Verdularias/Kioscos are way cheaper than supermarkets. They really are not providing a reason to shop there for most. Other stores similar, the variability in pricing is too much and its too easy given the limited versions of things in the country, you know its the same you are buying on Mercado Libre at a fraction of the price and its delivered within a day or 3.

2) Yup. The podologia I got to does house calls now and she said it can be better pay than when she works in the clinics or aestheticians for a day.

3) I do think there will always be some store fronts for things because people will want it now, others don't want to buy online, some still like the idea of buying with cash. I also doubt they will become residential. Rents may drop and more cafes, restaurants and other services and goods will come in. I don't see store fronts becoming residential in other places. Worse case, they would have to buy the building and then knock them down to put up a condo.

The incredible range of prices never ceases to amaze me.
Recently I needed to change oil to my car, so I went to three "lubricentros" and was quoted 290K, 240K and 180K. Same oil (full synthetic 0W30), same quantity (6 quarts). Of course I went with the third one, also considering that the oil was Valvoline, so nothing sketchy.