ENGLISH VERSION
Hot air vs. real gas
HERALD STAFF
VERSIÓN ESPAÑOL
La insoportable levedad del gas
La economía no puede estar tan bien como lo sugieren las tasas de crecimiento de los últimos cuatro años, a juzgar por la forma en que el gobierno le ha tomado el gusto a escabullir malas noticias a intervalos de tiempo cada vez más cortos: primero, las cifras inflacionarias de marzo con su escalada del 3,6% en los precios de los alimentos básicos (estos últimos ya en proceso de corrección) justo antes del fin de semana largo de Pascua y ahora el primer aumento de tarifas de gas residencial en ocho años al amparo de las protestas masivas y paros por la muerte del docente neuquino Carlos Fuentealba. Lea más
The economy cannot be doing as well as the growth rates of the last four years would suggest, judging from the way the government has taken to sneaking in bad news at increasingly shorter intervals — firstly, the March inflation figures with their 3.6 percent surge in basic food prices (already in the process of correction) just before the long Easter weekend and now the first increase in household gas charges in eight years under cover of Monday’s massive protests and strikes over the death of Neuquén teacher Carlos Fuentealba. With all due respect to the fervour of Monday’s marchers and all the accompanying rhetoric (with precious little detail about the death at the heart of the matter, however, in all the pages of media coverage), the increased price of gas was the real news of the day.
Why? Because it not only represents the first clear break in five years of stubborn refusal to update domestic gas charges to the devaluation of early 2002 but its bizarre timing raises all sorts of questions — if the frozen gas prices were widely considered to be the crassest populism in order to secure votes for this October’s election, why raise them precisely in an election year just before a winter which will be fresh in the mind of October voters? Are we really facing such serious energy bottlenecks that the government has no choice but to humour the utilities if they want to see some investment into expanding the gas supply? Or does the government’s main concern lie in shoring up the relationship with Spain (whose Gas Natural BAN is a major stakeholder in the sector), one of the Néstor Kirchner administration’s few remaining friends abroad at a time when Argentina’s foreign debt obligations (artificially curbed by tampered inflation data holding down the CER multiplier index-linking many bonds) is returning as an issue?
These long overdue charges — 14 percent on average with minimum billing rising 33 percent and all backdated to November, 2005 — will certainly bite deep but it is still too early to say whether this is goodbye to populism. For one thing, compressed natural gas (CNG) is exempted from these increases — 1.5 million drivers represent too many votes to lose at a stroke. Nevertheless, the increased gas charges represent a definite paradigm shift. Kirchner might preen himself on the Neuquén tragedy being a supreme vindication of his permissive attitudes toward populism and picketry but just pay attention to your next few gas bills as you listen to him.
There goes moneymaker number 1 out of the window