The economic future from Argentina

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sergio

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bf4, the US government definition of poverty (official Federal Poverty Level) is less than $19,350 for a family. At this level a family member who works will receive housing assistance, food stamps and health care that will bring the family up to a decent level - one that would be enviable in Argentina. Since you might introduce the subject of expensive education in the US, I'd like to mention the generous plan now offered by two Ivy League universities: Harvard and the University of Pennsylvania that offer free tuition to qualified students whose family income is under $40,000. Here is a link regarding Harvard's plan: http://www.hno.harvard.edu/gazette/daily/0402/28-finaid.html
 

Granadaiscool

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ENGLISH VERSION

Hot air vs. real gas










HERALD STAFF





















VERSIÓN ESPAÑOL

La insoportable levedad del gas

La economía no puede estar tan bien como lo sugieren las tasas de crecimiento de los últimos cuatro años, a juzgar por la forma en que el gobierno le ha tomado el gusto a escabullir malas noticias a intervalos de tiempo cada vez más cortos: primero, las cifras inflacionarias de marzo con su escalada del 3,6% en los precios de los alimentos básicos (estos últimos ya en proceso de corrección) justo antes del fin de semana largo de Pascua y ahora el primer aumento de tarifas de gas residencial en ocho años al amparo de las protestas masivas y paros por la muerte del docente neuquino Carlos Fuentealba. Lea más










The economy cannot be doing as well as the growth rates of the last four years would suggest, judging from the way the government has taken to sneaking in bad news at increasingly shorter intervals — firstly, the March inflation figures with their 3.6 percent surge in basic food prices (already in the process of correction) just before the long Easter weekend and now the first increase in household gas charges in eight years under cover of Monday’s massive protests and strikes over the death of Neuquén teacher Carlos Fuentealba. With all due respect to the fervour of Monday’s marchers and all the accompanying rhetoric (with precious little detail about the death at the heart of the matter, however, in all the pages of media coverage), the increased price of gas was the real news of the day.
Why? Because it not only represents the first clear break in five years of stubborn refusal to update domestic gas charges to the devaluation of early 2002 but its bizarre timing raises all sorts of questions — if the frozen gas prices were widely considered to be the crassest populism in order to secure votes for this October’s election, why raise them precisely in an election year just before a winter which will be fresh in the mind of October voters? Are we really facing such serious energy bottlenecks that the government has no choice but to humour the utilities if they want to see some investment into expanding the gas supply? Or does the government’s main concern lie in shoring up the relationship with Spain (whose Gas Natural BAN is a major stakeholder in the sector), one of the Néstor Kirchner administration’s few remaining friends abroad at a time when Argentina’s foreign debt obligations (artificially curbed by tampered inflation data holding down the CER multiplier index-linking many bonds) is returning as an issue?
These long overdue charges — 14 percent on average with minimum billing rising 33 percent and all backdated to November, 2005 — will certainly bite deep but it is still too early to say whether this is goodbye to populism. For one thing, compressed natural gas (CNG) is exempted from these increases — 1.5 million drivers represent too many votes to lose at a stroke. Nevertheless, the increased gas charges represent a definite paradigm shift. Kirchner might preen himself on the Neuquén tragedy being a supreme vindication of his permissive attitudes toward populism and picketry but just pay attention to your next few gas bills as you listen to him.





There goes moneymaker number 1 out of the window
 

Granadaiscool

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Someone who doesn´t believe Argentina will be a nett importer of Hydro carbons should just see what happend the last couple of days(Chili and industrial users in Argentina were cut off)
Construction is down for the 9 straight month.

Now the G8 should force Argentina to use there reserve to pay the bondholders and Argentina is wasted for always
 

Granadaiscool

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Country-risk soars 17.4%



Argentina faces the worst bond drop since crisis
Argentine bonds have not fallen so sharply since 2001 crisis. Investors are leaving emerging countries' bonds, worried about reliability of US real estate market. Argentina is one of the most affected markets together with Turkey. Among peso-denominated papers, Discount loses 5.8 per cent and Par, 5.8 per cent. Dollar-denominated Par, US law, slides 11.2 per cent. BOGAR 2018 slides 6.4 per cent; PRO13, 7.4 per cent; and PRO12, 4.8 per cent. GDP coupon in pesos retreats 6.4 per cent and the one denominated in dollars plummets 6.6 per cent. Argentine country-risk rises 70 basis points, reaching a new maximum of 471 units. This represents a 17.4-per cent hike. Buenos Aires Stock Exchange plummets 4.7 per cent
 

PK

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A request for practical advice. We are building a home in Argentina should we buy all of the materials quickly or take our time. If everyone is concerned about rampant inflation and the possibility of the peso/dollar being revisited it would seem we better get busy. Thoughts?
 

Granadaiscool

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If 2005 and 2006 were anything to go by it would be best to buy fast as prices for building materials were increasing fast.
I would think that most building materials are in dollar, so unless the dollar goes down quickly it would not make a lot of difference
I would say make a budget with a 25% extra for if prices rise
 

donquixote

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Can sombody clear up somthing for me. I keep hearing that if you are paid in dollars you have a hedge against inflations....????? It seems everybody wants to be paid in dollars. What difference does it make if the Argentine government props up the peso. the peso vs the dollar exchange frate has been the same as in 2003, around .317 to 1.
DQ
 

realba

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PK, buy all the materials now but keep a very, very detailed inventory of every single little thing you have bought, you use and what you should have left. Theft by workers on building sites is very common (and in no way is it unique to Argentina). Do this yourself and do not trust your architect nor your jefe de obra to do all the work for you.
 
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