It is not in the opinion and commentary section. It is a researched article with many quotes and simple reporting of facts. One being that the futures market did not care at all about Trumps announcement. Yes I’m sure some personal insight from the reporter.
My uneducated commentary is that Argentina would not be able to ramp up production and shipments to be able to make any difference to lower prices. Reading 2% of imports into US are from Argentina, and Brazil was much more than that. Does it even matter? It’s all a game that Trump is doing to pretend is he successfully manipulating China, Brazil, and Argentina to benefit the US.
Brazil imports would have a much bigger impact to lower prices because the amounts would be much higher. The distribution channels of beef imports from there are already setup, and have just been temporarily blocked by tariffs.
People can use quotes and stats to present any opinion they want. The inclusion of them didn't by virtue make it any more true. I'm sure you can find analysts on both sides about gold, stock markets, etc. if anyone knew with certainty they'd be making incredible gambles.
In 2024 the US imported 8.1% Brazil's 2.5 million tonnes of beef exports, so about 200k tonnes, which was about 30% of Argentinian beef exports.
The first half of this year Argentina was importing from Brazil because of the cost of beef from there was cheaper, due to value of peso etc and price ranchers were willing to sell for.
Since there are tariffs on Brazil Argentina exports are much cheaper (not just the little difference due to exchange rates) and definitely can have the impact. The tariffs really just cause other countries to pick up the Brazilian market share and their market shares in other countries will go to Brazil. China received about 80% of Argentinian exports, therefore 560k tonnes. A fraction of that can be swapped with Brazil. As a BRICS partner, I would think China is willing to help them out.
Argentina already is organized for the beef exports market quite well. Which boat gets loaded isn't an issue. The difference in logistics is marginal probably, a few cents per pound.
There is a difference between the cost of cattle and the cost in the supermarket. increasing supply absolutely can lower it.
The purpose and politics of tariffs is a separate discussion. if you don't believe increasing supply can have an impact on process then tariffs shouldn't have any impact, which you have already implied have made things more expensive (by impacting either price or quantity of supply).
Argentinian farmers have also come out and raised the point that they are amongst the quickest industries to ramp up production when compared to oil and gas, mining, energy projects that are in the news related to the RIGI investment scheme. Yes, on average argentinian industrial capacity is operating at 60% of installed capacity.
China represented 60% of the soy market I think. Why don't American farmers do more to target the other 40%.
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