pennsylvania
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- Oct 21, 2019
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My guess is this trade won't become a smashing success. On paper, it sounds tempting - 78 pesos to the dollar when the cueva is at 64. That's an extra 14 pesos per dollar. But consider the costs. I gotta transfer money to a friend or family member. They have to get cash from their bank (who goes to the bank branch anymore?). Then they run to a WU branch to pay the transfer. In the meantime, I have to set up the trade through my computer or mobile phone.
So the transfer goes through. Now I have to pick up the pesos at a WU. My guess is you have to visit one of those big WU outlets - cuz if you transfer say $500US, the smaller ones won't have $39.000 pesos laying around. So I go to the WU branch, stand in line for at least 20 minutes, maybe 30. Then it takes 5-10 minutes for them to figure out the keystrokes and count out 39.000 pesos. Finally, I gotta immediately jump in a cab so I don't get robbed on the way out.
What are the economic savings? The difference between the WU rate and the cueva is 14 to the dollar - that's an extra $7.000 pesos. Divide that by 64 and you get $109US. Subtract the $8US in fees. Now you are down to roughly $100US.But if my family member put the trade on their Amazon credit card, that's 5% of transaction amount. So the opportunity cost for them, or the potential foregone based on a cash trade is 5% of $500, or $25US. So now we are down to economic savings of $75US. Now I consider my family member's time, my time, the chance of getting robbed walking out of a WU with one month's Argentine equivalent income?
It all sounds less appealing as I write this.
I suppose you could do a $2K trade. But that's $156.000 pesos. That's not a safe amount of money for a foreigner to walk around with in BA. And unless you are a huge spender, that much peso surplus means you are long pesos; you are betting on the peso staying stable or increasing in value vs. the dollar. Who wants that bet?
It all sounds tempting. But given my alternative - which is call the cueva and have him deliver any amount I want (total transaction time - 2 minutes) - I'll pass on Western Union.
The usage of a credit card wouldn't decrease your economic savings, because apart from the fact that they wouldn't get 5%, Western Union would likely be categorized as a cash advance. Not to mention, the WU fee for using a credit card is $14.50 higher than the debit card option to begin with.
While I agree with you about going long on pesos, 1k USD/month is a reasonable spend (much of it front loaded with monthly bills) and that would give you an approximate economic savings of 200 USD for this hastle. For most people it would be worth it.