Wham here comes the tsunami

[perry]

Perry,

Whether only 10% of the population can benefit is just a fact but it's subjective as to the morality of is it right or wrong. The wealthy will always be able to benefit on opportunities when there is blood in the street. I will still argue with anyone that says Argentina will become a "Venezuela". It just won't happen. I will argue with anyone that says that real estate prices will go back to the levels of the last crash. It just won't happen. Not in US dollar terms. Never.

I hope I'm wrong and if so, I'll be one of those 10% you refer to taking advantage and loading up on my investments. That isn't a question or morality or taking advantage of anyone. It's just prudent and sound investing.

Look at Buenos Aires a city with a metropolitan area of about 13 million people and look at La Capital of only around 3 million people. Much of that is concentrated wealth and always will be for the end of time.

Wise economists and experts have said if you took ALL the wealth in the world and divided it equally with every single person in the world. Within 10-15 years all the people that were wealthy before would be again and the people that were poor before probably would be again. I agree with much of that thought. There is no right or wrong about it. Just fact.

As far as Macri failing. Yes, absolutely. But as I mentioned before, I don't think any politician could have successfully navigated Argentina after the mess CFK made. That was unrecoverable. Argentina will always be a mess because it's a broken country. So the best thing you can do is take advantage of the really really bloodbaths and recessions and crashes when they happen. And between relative periods of stability when they have recovered to dump your investments and rinse, repeat over and over.

It's certainly not a matter of morality or taking advantage of anyone. It's about taking advantage of a smart investment opportunity.




Yes. This is spot on target. I love how people try to argue or assume that someone any other president could have solved Argentina's woes. LOL. Just impossible to anyone that truly understands Argentina. Yes, absolutely Macri made a lot of mistakes. But I totally disagree with you Perry if you think that Argentina somehow could have been in great shape with someone else.

Argentina is structured for systemic failure. There will NEVER be long term stability there. I've posted in great detail over the past many years on this forum why Argentina can't have stability. Everything is broken there and there isn't a possibility to fix it. There is systemic inefficiencies, corruption and red tape there. It's totally plagued and can't be fixed without basically a reset of the entire system there from labor laws, tax code/laws, and many many other things I've posted about over the past decade.

I like to make it clear once and for all I am not a peronist nor want a return to the past . I also voted for Macri hoping for a positive change and like everyone in Argentina we were left with egg on our faces. In regards to the 10 % loading up on investments when there is blood on the streets why not invest in Venezuela where property prices are now the cheapest in the world?

Buying a property depends on stability and a fair system of law . I worked in real estate in Argentina for many years and believe that it is very risky to buy property now and for the next years . Prices have come down substantially since 2017 and now with the new scenario they will go doiwn much further . I believe that the future is 2001 revisted but Imho it seems that the next time the crash will be much more profound and longer . The 2001 crash only lasted for 2 years a very short time before recovery . The world situation is very unstable now and it seems that in the next year there could be a world wide economic correction

The last 3 years under Macri have been the worst years for most small businesses in Argentina since records began . Retailers have been absolutely hammered with outrageous rental prices in dollars , huge service costs . and very low consumption due to people not having any disposable income . Palermo Soho and Hollywood once vibrant dynamic neighbourhoods have been the most affected in the city of Buenos Aires and some strrets have a 50% occupation rate Fitzroy Street is a example . The inflation under Macri has been close to double than under Kristina but without wages being adjusted to keep up with inflation peoples real earning potential have been halved in just 3 years . Im currently in Sydney Australia and it is cheaper and much higher quality food to eat out here than in Buenos Aires now . Food is a necessity and should not be so marked up as it is in Argentina . Supermarket prices in Buenos Aires are dearer than most cities of the world including London

With the imf record loan more adjustments were going to be implemented on the battered Argentinian public . How much can people suffer and for how long before they say basta . I do not believe that people are voting for Christina but they are voting against Macri this is the reality . He won the elections with most of our votes but he did not deliver on any of his promises . I am not saying it will get better next year as the damage has been done . Argentina has a huge foreign debt created in the main by the current government . ( Early retirement do you know where this money went ?)

I do not want to be one of those bitter expats who spend their days whinging about their new country and for this reason I am already half way out of Argentina . As early retirement has stated Buenos Aires is great for holiday but to live there and do business it is not desirable .

 

[camberiu]

With the way the Peso is trending, this is Argentina 2020

 

[Rich One]

I like to make it clear once and for all I am not a peronist nor want a return to the past . I also voted for Macri hoping for a positive change and like everyone in Argentina we were left with egg on our faces. In regards to the 10 % loading up on investments when there is blood on the streets why not invest in Venezuela where property prices are now the cheapest in the world?

Buying a property depends on stability and a fair system of law . I worked in real estate in Argentina for many years and believe that it is very risky to buy property now and for the next years . Prices have come down substantially since 2017 and now with the new scenario they will go doiwn much further . I believe that the future is 2001 revisted but Imho it seems that the next time the crash will be much more profound and longer . The 2001 crash only lasted for 2 years a very short time before recovery . The world situation is very unstable now and it seems that in the next year there could be a world wide economic correction

The last 3 years under Macri have been the worst years for most small businesses in Argentina since records began . Retailers have been absolutely hammered with outrageous rental prices in dollars , huge service costs . and very low consumption due to people not having any disposable income . Palermo Soho and Hollywood once vibrant dynamic neighbourhoods have been the most affected in the city of Buenos Aires and some strrets have a 50% occupation rate Fitzroy Street is a example . The inflation under Macri has been close to double than under Kristina but without wages being adjusted to keep up with inflation peoples real earning potential have been halved in just 3 years . Im currently in Sydney Australia and it is cheaper and much higher quality food to eat out here than in Buenos Aires now . Food is a necessity and should not be so marked up as it is in Argentina . Supermarket prices in Buenos Aires are dearer than most cities of the world including London

With the imf record loan more adjustments were going to be implemented on the battered Argentinian public . How much can people suffer and for how long before they say basta . I do not believe that people are voting for Christina but they are voting against Macri this is the reality . He won the elections with most of our votes but he did not deliver on any of his promises . I am not saying it will get better next year as the damage has been done . Argentina has a huge foreign debt created in the main by the current government . ( Early retirement do you know where this money went ?)

I do not want to be one of those bitter expats who spend their days whinging about their new country and for this reason I am already half way out of Argentina . As early retirement has stated Buenos Aires is great for holiday but to live there and do business it is not desirable .

Very true , excellent comments.! yesterday on TV the Head of the BA Realtors Assoc. mentioned that one of his clients that lives in the US, asked him to put on the market his 10 units in Palermo , and suggested lower the prices 15 % and if necessary go down to 20 %....

 

[jantango]

 

[camel]

Maybe the Venezuela topic deserves a new thread (mods: feel free to move this). I've been watching this vlogger's Venezuela series since June. It's been showing different places in the country, Caracas, small towns, the good parts, the bad, and the ugly. The guy vlogging is from New Zealand. They're about 15-20 minutes each. If there are any Venezuelans active on the forum, I'd like your feedback on whether these videos are a fair account on the state of Venezuela right now.

 

[Stantucker]

I saw a report on Al Jazeera the other day about the crisis on one of the Venezuelans islands and the people there were saying they eat once a day and do not have access to medicine and doctors - they have all left. A woman with a autistic son with a swallowing disorder could not find medical help for him and he was literally skin and bones, like a concentration camp survivor. They said the crisis started way before Trump's sanctions. And I don't think of All Jazeera as a right wing propaganda machine.

 

[garryl]

Nah, Buenos Aires will never be like living in Venezuela. Never. 2001 if anything should have taught you that when things crash that hard and blood in the streets, you pounce on it and buy. The most successful people in Argentina are the ones that understand the cycles.

I will buy if 2001 repeats again

 

[perry]

Very true , excellent comments.! yesterday on TV the Head of the BA Realtors Assoc. mentioned that one of his clients that lives in the US, asked him to put on the market his 10 units in Palermo , and suggested lower the prices 15 % and if necessary go down to 20 %....

Most of my friends who are realtors are lucky to sell a property every few months . Now with the new scenario it will be much more difficult . Prices in Buenos Aires in US dollars for being a cash market have been high now for a long time . There is no justification for these prices as there is a tremendous amount of offer for sale and low demand . Rental returns are at historic lows and in many cases people are losing money holding a property in Buenos Aires as costs to maintain are very high . Also now with the new capital gains tax of 15% it makes little sense to buy a property as the risk factor is high . For example if I brought a property in January 2018 for 100 thousand dollars or at that time 1 ,700.000 pesos and now resell it for the same amount US$ 100,000 this is currently 5,700,000 pesos Banco de la Nacio venta .

This means that a 15% tax must be paid on the false earning ( ganancia ) of 4 million pesos or 600 thousand pesos US$ 11,000 approximate . This is a most unfair law as it does not contemplate the sale and purchase of property in us dollars and takes the peso as its base . This means that the seller is paying for the devaluation of the peso even though he did his transaction in us dollars.

Imagine if the peso reaches 100 or more the tax will be brutal .

Please note this only applies for those who brought from 2018 .

 

[garryl]

Most of my friends who are realtors are lucky to sell a property every few months . Now with the new scenario it will be much more difficult . Prices in Buenos Aires in US dollars for being a cash market have been high now for a long time . There is no justification for these prices are there is a tremendous amount of offer for sale and low demand . Rental returns are at historic lows and in many cases people are losing money holding a property in Buenos Aires as costs to maintain are very high . Also now with the new capital gains tax of 15% it makes little sense to buy a property as the risk factor is high . For example if I brought a property in January 2018 for 100 thousand dollars or at that time 1 ,700.000 pesos and now resell it for the same amount US$ 100,000 this is currently 5,700,000 pesos Banco de la Nacio venta .

This means that a 15% tax must be paid on the false earning ( ganancia ) of 4 million pesos or 600 thousand pesos US$ 11,000 approximate . This is a most unfair law as it does not contemplate the sale and purchase of property in us dollars and takes the peso as its base . This means that the seller is paying for the devaluation of the peso even though he did his transaction in us dollars.

Imagine if the peso reaches 100 or more the tax will be brutal .

Please note this only applies for those who brought from 2018 .

Only applies to the property bought 2018 and after ?

 

[perry]

Yes

Only applies to the property bought 2018 and after ?

Yes from 2018 onwards