What Will Happen First?

[internationalguy]

What do you guys think?

 

[Page8383]

I think the official will go to 9 - 9.5 next week. whilst the blue goes to 11 - 11.5.
Official rate will deteriorate over the next 3 months as reserves run low and any remaining confidence is dashed. Last chance saloon as people make their last sprint out of dodge.
There may be a few wild cards to be played out yet.
I think by April things will hit rock bottom.
But hey, I've never played this game before.

 

[Joe]

Argentina will continue to muddle along for the next several years unless there is a major collapse in the developed world or China.

Some of you are like the guys that go to the car races hoping for a spectacular crash.

Most crashes are caused by unsustainable debt loads which Argentina doesn't currently have.

 

[AmigoArtistico]

Argentina will continue to muddle along for the next several years unless there is a major collapse in the developed world or China.

Some of you are like the guys that go to the car races hoping for a spectacular crash.

Most crashes are caused by unsustainable debt loads which Argentina doesn't currently have.

You're absolutely right, Joe.

Everything is hunky dory.

That was just a minor blip last week.

Much ado about nothing.

Go back to your homes, people. Nothing to see here.

 

[GS_Dirtboy]

Argentina will continue to muddle along for the next several years unless there is a major collapse in the developed world or China.

Some of you are like the guys that go to the car races hoping for a spectacular crash.

Most crashes are caused by unsustainable debt loads which Argentina doesn't currently have.

On this I'd have to agree with Joe. If Argentina has taught me one thing it is that Argentines are incredibly resourceful and will find a way over, around, or through whatever the obstacle is if they can get something out of it.

 

[nicoenarg]

The last thing, CFK stepping down without any of the other things listed, will most probably happen. That is both what I think may happen and also is my hope that that is what happens. There's no point in another crisis and people don't have the patience for it having gone through an awfully terrible one not too long ago.

People need to see peronists for what they really are so the peronists can't then blame it on someone else in the next election, or the one after that. This round of problems is squarely on them hence I would want CFK to finish her term, all alive and well. So people blame her for all the kaka this country is in right now and not some casper hiding in the shadows.

 

[Reneige]

On this I'd have to agree with Joe. If Argentina has taught me one thing it is that Argentines are incredibly resourceful and will find a way over, around, or through whatever the obstacle is if they can get something out of it.

Only because we are so far removed from the people who will suffer most from the outcome of all this. People with means to save, with jobs, an education, etc., will find a way around the turmoil. It is always the poor who suffer recessions the hardest.

 

[Rich One]

Don't Worry : La Casa esta en Orden!!!

Kiciloff measures are tantamount to rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic !!

Or as the WSJ put it today " the measures are like poking a finger in the holes of an overflowing cracked dam

The pressure on the blue dollar will continue since its mainly generated by undeclared pesos. can't go to AFIP to approve purchases.

 

[sleazemerchant]

The key here is if Argentina is able to get "reasonable" outside financing or not in the near term; if they can somehow launch a large successful bond offering and implement coherent economic reforms the situation can be stabilized. If they fail to get outside financing the math simply does not add up to arriving to December 2015 without a major balance of payments crisis; there simply will not be the USD available to import enough LNG in the winter to keep the country from grinding to a halt.

 

[BradClark]

Well China is showing the signs of things officialy slowing down (behind the scenes who really knows the true extent). It's having an effect on a lot of countries at the moment.