What will the Dollar be worth End 2020.!

TheDonald

Registered
Predictions of this nature are simplistic to the point of being worthless.

As I wrote before on this site, a currency exchange rate is made up of two currencies. Not one. The exchange rate is the result of supply and demand for the respective currencies that are being compared.

Any prediction of the peso/dollar exchange rate at the end of 2020 will be influenced by who wins the US presidential election. This influence will be enormous. If Trump wins, the dollar will probably strengthen around 15%. If Biden wins, the dollar will probably weaken about 30%. These ranges are not limited to the peso/dollar. They will also control for the dollar against pretty much every foreign currency.

These are just rough estimates. Also figuring into the calculation will be the debt renegotiation, Argentina's economy, the price of Argentine export commodities and a few other factors. But in my opinion, the strongest influence on the exchange rate will the result of the US presidential election.

I am not making political statements. But economic ones. Investors will buy dollar assets if Trump wins. They will sell dollar assets if Biden wins. That will affect the supply/demand relation for dollars against every currency. This is economic reality.
 

Dougie

Registered
Any prediction of the peso/dollar exchange rate at the end of 2020 will be influenced by who wins the US presidential election. This influence will be enormous. If Trump wins, the dollar will probably strengthen around 15%. If Biden wins, the dollar will probably weaken about 30%. These ranges are not limited to the peso/dollar. They will also control for the dollar against pretty much every foreign currency.
Wow this is a bad take.
 

Rich One

Registered
Predictions of this nature are simplistic to the point of being worthless.

As I wrote before on this site, a currency exchange rate is made up of two currencies. Not one. The exchange rate is the result of supply and demand for the respective currencies that are being compared.

Any prediction of the peso/dollar exchange rate at the end of 2020 will be influenced by who wins the US presidential election. This influence will be enormous. If Trump wins, the dollar will probably strengthen around 15%. If Biden wins, the dollar will probably weaken about 30%. These ranges are not limited to the peso/dollar. They will also control for the dollar against pretty much every foreign currency.

These are just rough estimates. Also figuring into the calculation will be the debt renegotiation, Argentina's economy, the price of Argentine export commodities and a few other factors. But in my opinion, the strongest influence on the exchange rate will the result of the US presidential election.

I am not making political statements. But economic ones. Investors will buy dollar assets if Trump wins. They will sell dollar assets if Biden wins. That will affect the supply/demand relation for dollars against every currency. This is economic reality.
This means if we vote for Biden, will lose 30% value OMG. Is Trump's campaign already using this argument..?
 

EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre

Registered
Imagine believing the peso will gain up to 30% against the dollar if Biden wins the election LMAO
It very well could ...

Biden is on the record as having said, if he were elected President, he would raise the corporate tax rate to 28% and roll back Trumps almost $2T tax cuts ... not to mention what may occur with the working class paycheck / tax rate. A few economists have chimed in and expressed their opinion on a scenario such as this: It seems they (economists) feel if this were to happen, the USD would lose a lot of ground to other currencies as well as really roil The US economy. Now I am not taking sides over who is the better candidate or most capable to lead the country for the next four years. I am merely stating what Biden has said and what economists, as a group feel would be the reaction to the USD in the world market place. Remains to be seen what happens if Biden is the next commander in chief??? But given the whole COVID 19 mess, the last thing the world economy needs is The US balance being upset. It really won't serve the overwhelming majority's needs. Yes, a minority would benefit, but the 90% of the world's population would feel the sting in my opinion.
 

Dougie

Registered
I think they are both senile old men, so my opinion doesn't have to do with politics.

Biden has floated Jamie Dimon as treasury secretary. Larry Summers is a major economic advisor of his. Wall St will run his administration. Corporations will be fine.

Even if the tax cut was rolled back it isn't going to have such a dramatic affect on asset prices. Biden is more open to be free trade agreements like TPP, which would increase corporate profits.

Tell me where investors are going to put their money in a global crisis if they are moving it out of the USD?

The bigger threat to the long term stability of the USD is Feds balance sheet.
 

Redpossum

Registered
I think they are both senile old men, so my opinion doesn't have to do with politics.
Oh, brother! You got that right. My guess is that the dems will nominate the Wicked Witch of the East (aka Hillary Clinton) as VP, and then remove Biden once the election is won, moving Killary into the Presidential slot she's always fantasized about.

Tell me where investors are going to put their money in a global crisis if they are moving it out of the USD?
Physical gold, and possibly Bitcoin. Maybe. Real Estate is the usual hedge. Beyond that, hey, I'm an English teacher, not a financial analyst. If I had a good knowledge of investing, I wouldn't be renting a crappy little apartment in microcentro, would I?
 

Jim Prideaux

Registered
[M]y projection is the high side of the chart ... as in 100+ to the dollar. I just can't see it being any other way. It is a mess out there and it is not going to get better anytime soon with how the Argentine economy is being handled by the current administration.
The debt talks are foundering, moreover. If it reaches the point that creditors walk, as they appear to be close to doing, the qualification of “technical” will disappear from mention of default. A big drop would be expected, despite the claim that iit’s already priced in.
 

Jim Prideaux

Registered
You’ve got to wonder about the economists who predict values to the right of the decimal points. What’s the point? The peso loses about a point a week. As of now the sell rate according to La Nacion is $73,5. There are about 120 days left in 2020. $193 seems high but I’d expect it to be well above $100. Western Union pays $115 in some provinces now. The blue rate is $128. What sort of drop will occur if the debt talks collapse? Is there a a point beyond which it cannot fall further? Personally, I hope the talks collapse and Argentina is shut out of the capital markets. It doesn’t deserve access to more money.
 
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