What will the Dollar be worth End 2020.!

[EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre]

Most of the Argentines I hear planning to leave are looking either at Spain or Australia.

Spain makes perfect sense for the language aspect. Australia may as well due to the climate and I am guessing ease to immigrate compared to EE UU??? Someone would have to fact check me on that one.

 

[antipodean]

Spain makes perfect sense for the language aspect. Australia may as well due to the climate and I am guessing ease to immigrate compared to EE UU??? Someone would have to fact check me on that one.

Australia can be difficult to immigrate to unless you are a New Zealand citizen, have a hefty sum to invest in job creation or are young and fit some exceptional skill set (which given a shortage of working class people to keep the economy running, can actually be surprisingly unexceptional!)
It does offer a quite similar lifestyle to Argentina. Laid back, suburban, similar weather, lots of BBQs, rugby etc only way, way, way better paid and everything just kind of works. Think $150k per year or more to hold a "stop/ go" sign on a roadworks site.

As for the European Union (EU) or Unión Europea (UE) it can be very easy to immigrate to. Not only for those with Italian or Spanish passports, but pretty much anyone who has about EUR 250-500k to buy a property - it can come with a golden PR visa attached in countries like Spain, Portugal, Greece etc with rights to work and study.
Many middle class Venezuelans actually sold everything and moved to Spain using this option and now live in fancy neighbourhoods like Retiro in Madrid but work in supermarkets.

 

[EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre]

Australia can be difficult to immigrate to unless you are a New Zealand citizen, have a hefty sum to invest in job creation or are young and fit some exceptional skill set (which given a shortage of working class people to keep the economy running, can actually be surprisingly unexceptional!)
It does offer a quite similar lifestyle to Argentina. Laid back, suburban, similar weather, lots of BBQs, rugby etc only way, way, way better paid and everything just kind of works. Think $150k per year or more to hold a "stop/ go" sign on a roadworks site.

As for the European Union (EU) or Unión Europea (UE) it can be very easy to immigrate to. Not only for those with Italian or Spanish passports, but pretty much anyone who has about EUR 250-500k to buy a property - it can come with a golden PR visa attached in countries like Spain, Portugal, Greece etc with rights to work and study.
Many middle class Venezuelans actually sold everything and moved to Spain using this option and now live in fancy neighbourhoods like Retiro in Madrid but work in supermarkets.

makes sense, i had the climate part of Australia right.

 

[antipodean]

And the Kirchneristas have a solid base of supporters who will stand by them through thick and thin. Oh yes, they will grumble, but they will follow Cristina to the gates of Hell and back again.

https://www.infobae.com/politica/20...omo-arrepentido-en-la-causa-de-los-cuadernos/

https://www.infobae.com/politica/20...omo-arrepentido-en-la-causa-de-los-cuadernos/

Amen to that timely point!

 

[Stantucker]

[QUOTE
"Chavez/ Maduro style forced disappearances and torture centers" ?? This is pure fantasy. If this was real, Guido would have disappeared long ago.
[/QUOTE]
I guess you're forgetting Michelle Bachelet's UN report of the more than six thousand killed by Maduro's security forces. And those opposition leaders that suddenly decided to "commit suicide" when in police custody? They can't touch Guaidó because they fear the consequences, not because they're opposed to or aren't involved in torture and forced disappearances. Just Google desparecidos en Venezuela and see how many different articles come up.

 

[Dougie]

You’ve got to wonder about the economists who predict values to the right of the decimal points. What’s the point? The peso loses about a point a week. As of now the sell rate according to La Nacion is $73,5. There are about 120 days left in 2020. $193 seems high but I’d expect it to be well above $100. Western Union pays $115 in some provinces now. The blue rate is $128. What sort of drop will occur if the debt talks collapse? Is there a a point beyond which it cannot fall further? Personally, I hope the talks collapse and Argentina is shut out of the capital markets. It doesn’t deserve access to more money.

Looks like a deal is imminent - https://outline.com/A5s3Ge

Argentina Debt Proposal Offers a Breakthrough, Deserves Support

"After months of often difficult negotiations, Argentina made a new offer to creditors Sunday that stands a solid chance of anchoring one of the largest sovereign debt restructurings in the history of emerging markets. By potentially lifting a big cloud hanging over the country’s ability to grow solidly and inclusively — directly for the government’s finances and indirectly by improving prospects for private sector activity — such an orderly and collaborative resolution could help overcome long-standing economic challenges that have recently been worsened by Covid-19."

Why hope or don't hope that they get shut out of capital markets? The investors are big boys. If Argentina can legally can borrow again by restructuring previous debt and investors decide that the reward of a high interest rate outweighs the risk then that's their choice.

 

[antipodean]

Looks like a deal is imminent - https://outline.com/A5s3Ge

Argentina Debt Proposal Offers a Breakthrough, Deserves Support

"After months of often difficult negotiations, Argentina made a new offer to creditors Sunday that stands a solid chance of anchoring one of the largest sovereign debt restructurings in the history of emerging markets. By potentially lifting a big cloud hanging over the country’s ability to grow solidly and inclusively — directly for the government’s finances and indirectly by improving prospects for private sector activity — such an orderly and collaborative resolution could help overcome long-standing economic challenges that have recently been worsened by Covid-19."

Why hope or don't hope that they get shut out of capital markets? The investors are big boys. If Argentina can legally can borrow again by restructuring previous debt and investors decide that the reward of a high interest rate outweighs the risk then that's their choice.

Watch this space. I suspect Albie's "economic miracle" will be a massive new (but "sustainable") loan of fresh dollars, justified by the unprecedented nature of the pandemic in the wake of the "damage done by the previous administration" and the fact that all other countries are "borrowing more than us". Sold!

In other news MercadoLibre is now worth 16% more than the entire Argentine Central Reserve. I wonder how many hardliners are already cooking up arguments to expropriate the online sales plaform with war cries of "compras soberanas x todxs!"

 

[Dougie]

Watch this space. I suspect Albie's "economic miracle" will be a massive new (but "sustainable") loan of fresh dollars, justified by the unprecedented nature of the pandemic in the wake of the "damage done by the previous administration" and the fact that all other countries are "borrowing more than us". Sold!

This alone is going to help a lot -

"With a five-year window of no amortization payments and an average coupon rate of under 2%, Argentina would receive valuable time to re-allocate resources in support of structural reforms, social sector spending and poverty relief."

Do you believe there will be many subscribers to a new USD offering?

 

[antipodean]

When it comes to lending money to Argentina it seems that foreigners are just as guilty of never learning their lesson.
I would imagine new loans or "assistance packages" would come with opportune strings attached - if it were me, I would see a loan of a few billion as a price to pay (and loose) for some kind of preferential market access / concession and the state protection that comes with to allow me or my associates to cash-in on another front. Am not convinced that "free market" ideals of the past are running high around the world at the moment to bet that anyone will insist on sweeping reforms. Instead they may push a more mercenary approach in getting a deal that is made just for them, something a "popularist" government could better work with.

 

[jblaze5779]

I don't feel bad for the foreign investors. If you give a crackhead $100 bucks, you're never seeing that hundred again no matter how much they say they'll give you tomorrow.

If you invest in Argentina you are dumb.