What's K's next move?

[El chabon]

Crosspost because there is more traffic here

The way Argentina goes it makes perfectly to nationalize deposits in Dollars

- AFJP
- Aerolineas
- Reserves of banco central
- Writing unpayable ANSESS and AFIP bonds
- Dollar controls
- Import controls
- YPF

There must be something new brewing, that could either be the bank deposits, the mineria or the re-re-elections. I think the last one will more likely after the elections, I fully espect Cristina to hold them in march or april 2013 and if she has a good showing in those(remember she only got about 30% in 2009 and her husband got badly beaten, those seats are up for renewal) she will have the 2/3 mayority to change the constitution.

The AFJP was basically also stealing someones accounts and there was little o no discontent, I am guessing she can do it again, because any smart Argentine doesnt have any dollar account in Argentina anymore.

I haven't seen any figures but the cuenta fijo en Dollars must be basically 0 now and capital flight must be through the roof.

P.S. I expect another assault to Clarin as well

 

[nicoenarg]

Phone companies.

 

[El chabon]

Phone companies.

And begin responsable for the bad service, doubt it.

Prolly the main reason she stays away from the trains mainly.

 

[nicoenarg]

And begin responsable for the bad service, doubt it.

Prolly the main reason she stays away from the trains mainly.

In that respect the move to expropriate YPF was a dumb one too because the NEED to import in the near future WILL increase. Of course they can cook the numbers however they want but I do think CFK wants state control over companies, especially big ones, whether direct or indirect. TBA = the administration, albeit indirect.

EDIT: This is all conjecture anyway. Neither you nor I have any numbers or insider information to predict correctly what they will do next. When I mentioned expropriation of YPF some 4 months or so ago, most everyone said "They don't have the funds, its impossible". So I don't find it beyond reason that she might go after the phone companies, or cows or your underwear next.

The government finds it extremely difficult to keep on selling their lie about Argentina "being the envy of the world" with the economy not making any sense whatsoever, so what that makes the government reach is the point of erratic behavior. And that's what you see in all their decisions. However, their erratic behavior seems to be leaning toward state control over PERCEIVED cash cows. Enter PHONE COMPANIES.

 

[syngirl]

The problem with the YPF takeover is that the company was already in trouble 9billion in debt I believe? They were investing in the country, problem is it was all in refining, now Cristina wants to invest in extraction -- problem is she has no money to do so, so yes, there's various rumours going on of a corralito and other methods she'll use to get the money.

Edenor/Edesur are next on her list.

Everyone I know who has USD in bank accts is talking of pulling them out and installing a safe in their home to put them in.

The other day they reduced number of dollars you can buy from 40% of income to 25%.

Has anyone been watching Lanata on Sunday nights? It's a great show but frankly I usually end up passing out before it's over -- will have to see if I can find it online. Supposedly talked about Moreno last night but I was fast asleep by the time it came on (yes, Loser here). Show's called Periodismo Para Todos on TN if you haven't heard of it.

 

[El chabon]

America not TN

 

[nicoenarg]

Changing the constitution was mentioned. I believe CFK will go for it, but it might be closer to the next round of elections. Not really sure but I'm thinking we're going to devolve from the broke-ass one party system to one person Chavez-style dictatorship.

 

[El chabon]

In that respect the move to expropriate YPF was a dumb one too because the NEED to import in the near future WILL increase. Of course they can cook the numbers however they want but I do think CFK wants state control over companies, especially big ones, whether direct or indirect. TBA = the administration, albeit indirect.

EDIT: This is all conjecture anyway. Neither you nor I have any numbers or insider information to predict correctly what they will do next. When I mentioned expropriation of YPF some 4 months or so ago, most everyone said "They don't have the funds, its impossible". So I don't find it beyond reason that she might go after the phone companies, or cows or your underwear next.

The government finds it extremely difficult to keep on selling their lie about Argentina "being the envy of the world" with the economy not making any sense whatsoever, so what that makes the government reach is the point of erratic behavior. And that's what you see in all their decisions. However, their erratic behavior seems to be leaning toward state control over PERCEIVED cash cows. Enter PHONE COMPANIES.

YPF is all about screwing Euskenazi over, if she was really interested in YPF and there oil and gas output she would have gotten the 100%. Now she can control the dividends payments and the Euskenazi clan is all off a sudden stuck with a debt of 3 billion dollars and no way to pay it back because for atleast the next 3 years there won't be any dividend payments.

YPF is popular, brings in short term cash and if shale gas technology is ever ready the income is for the state coffers.

YPF and all the other multinational companies haven't been increasing there output because the existing wells are almost empty and noone besides from maybe the Chinese are interested in exploring new wells.

I expect that Petrobras might want to jump in the hole YPF left, because they have much more powerfull state behind them.

 

[El chabon]

Changing the constitution was mentioned. I believe CFK will go for it, but it might be closer to the next round of elections. Not really sure but I'm thinking we're going to devolve from the broke-ass one party system to one person Chavez-style dictatorship.

If she gets around 50% of the vote in 2013, she will have 2/3 and can do whatever she pleases.

This can't be a project for 2012, but maybe for 2013-2014.

 

[nicoenarg]

YPF and all the other multinational companies haven't been increasing there output because the existing wells are almost empty and noone besides from maybe the Chinese are interested in exploring new wells.

No one wants to explore new wells, at least not in Argentina, and not willingly. Everything over $40 a barrel (or $42) is taxed a 100%. One has to be an idiot to invest in such a deal where you will either make an eventual loss or will recover your investment over such a long period of time that it WILL be akin to a loss.

When it comes down to business, investing more money in this dark hole does not make sense. However, Petrobras might step in if Brazil and Argentina can strike a special deal. Otherwise, I really don't see why or how any international company would step in. Profits just don't seem to be there.