When will property be cheap in Buenos Aires?

[PoorSoul]

It seems lots of loans were given to produce property demand the last couple years. Now with austerity measures and the incoming likely unemployment and overall lower wages in dollar terms does anyone have any predictions on when housing prices will begin to slide? Any risk of defaults and force sells?

 

[perry]

It seems lots of loans were given to produce property demand the last couple years. Now with austerity measures and the incoming likely unemployment and overall lower wages in dollar terms does anyone have any predictions on when housing prices will begin to slide? Any risk of defaults and force sells?

I have worked as a realtor for 10 years here in Buenos Aires. Now semi retired. Prices have come down from their peak in January 2018 by 15% minimum . Of course most realtors will bullshit to you and say the market is stable but I am in contact with many realtors and sales are down 80% since January . The last few years was a complete bubble in real estate as the fundamentals of the economy were very bad but with cheap credit and a very overvalued peso it was a great deal to take out a home loan .
In January close to 40% of all sales were with credit and properties below 150 thousand 60% . This pushed prices artifically up for all real estate . Now people are regretting they did not sell then as the market is completely paralysed and only the very exclusive or the very well priced is selling .

Based on my studies of the market and supply and demand there is a perfect storm happening now . There is a huge stock of rental properties that are up for sale since the roi is dismal at less than 2% per year for most properties . If you look at the portal Zonaprop there is double the ads of just last year meaning that the supply is very high and demand is low . This will only worsen and I believe we will see some huge price changes in us dollars for Buenos Aires property . If the peso continues to devalue prices could be half in a few years as has happened in many cities around the world in crisis . Athens Greece which has by the way has a stable currency lost over 50 % of its property value since its peak in 2006 . Argentina which has the worlds worst performing currency ( except the bolivar venezolano) many anylists are predicting a peso of 70 by next june 2019 . Now if this happens and it is more likely due to the massive devaluation of late there will be many desperate sellers eager to get dollars. At the current moment there is fear but there is not desperation that is the second stage . I personally would not buy property now in Buenos Aires unless a great deal is presented to you . Wait one year and see what happens first .

 

[Ceviche]

Perry is a wise man. I second his views. Guys, listen to him

 

[Pensador]

I was told this was coming buy a man in URU he said wait till it drops then buy. I am waiting and it seems it shaking out pretty much like the man said it wold very much like Perry.

 

[jantango]

Perry wrote: I personally would not buy property now in Buenos Aires unless a great deal is presented to you.

Don't you think that an owner who is eager to sell now during the economic crisis would accept any reasonable offer to get their hands on dollars? There are less than desirable properties on the market for a long time that owners would probably sell to anyone who shows up with dollars. Why would a buyer have to wait for a great deal when one can make an offer that a seller can't refuse? If there is an abundance of apts for sale, then it's a buyer's market. It sounds like a good time to buy in BA.

 

[Bajo_cero2]

In 2002 crisis you were able to buy real estate with over 50% off.

 

[London2Baires]

Here is some interesting info, enjoy

http://www.ambito.com/932735-real-estate-con-suba-del-dolar-crecen-los-cazadores-de-oportunidades

 

[perry]

Perry wrote: I personally would not buy property now in Buenos Aires unless a great deal is presented to you.

Don't you think that an owner who is eager to sell now during the economic crisis would accept any reasonable offer to get their hands on dollars? There are less than desirable properties on the market for a long time that owners would probably sell to anyone who shows up with dollars. Why would a buyer have to wait for a great deal when one can make an offer that a seller can't refuse? If there is an abundance of apts for sale, then it's a buyer's market. It sounds like a good time to buy in BA

If you can wait this is not the best time as the prices have not deflated to their real levels. By next year the supply of properties for sale will reach very high levels as Argentinians lose their patience. After the 2001 crash prices in Recoleta dropped to 1000 us dollars a metre. Prices are in general three times dearer at 3000 a metre in this neighbourhood.

 

[Ceviche]

On another note, when is a good time to buy a car.

A high end one ?

 

[Bajo_cero2]

The same, they are too expensive to maintain.