Without Argentina

[nkotb]

nm

 

[EdRooney]

A couple of questions and an observation:

1. How do we know this is indeed a free trade agreement as indicated in the article? In the case of other pending "trade" agreements such as the trans-pacific partnership (TPP) or past agreements such as NAFTA, they could in no way be classified as freeing up trade, since they place huge restrictions on intellectual property and limit the free migration of professionals such as doctors. Even by WTO standards, the proposed EU/Mercosur agreement would seem to be at best a preferential trade agreement (PTA), and PTAs do more to hinder trade than free it up (especially given Brazil's huge shares in global commodity markets).

2. Camberiu, do you have any sources on Lula's fear of inflation ruining his legacy? Portuguese sources are fine.

3. I could not help but guffaw when the article said that the IMF (in the person of Christine Lagarde) had invoked the Confidence Fairy to scare Rousseff into further austerity. The ink isn't even dry on Brazil's USD $50 billion investment agreement with China, and here comes the IMF to say "better shape up or no one's going to want to invest in your economy". The only amazing part is that anyone keeps buying the snake oil the IMF is selling.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

Is Mujica out already? Did Tabare get re-elected again??

¿Te dormiste?

 

[camberiu]

2. Camberiu, do you have any sources on Lula's fear of inflation ruining his legacy? Portuguese sources are fine.

You can just Google it.


http://www.valor.com.br/politica/3987400/lula-defende-ajuste-fiscal-e-cobra-apoio-de-movimentos-sociais-dilma

http://tribunadainternet.com.br/lula-teme-os-aloprados-que-cercam-dilma/

 

[EdRooney]

Sounds like mind reading to me.

That Lula, Rousseff and the PO in general are in favour of (and heavily implementing) anti-Keynesian austerity in a recession is a matter of basic facts. What their intimate fears are, however, is a matter for folks with magic 8 balls and Ouija boards.

That said, how about #1? Got any evidence for saying this is indeed a free trade agreement and not an investors' rights accord like NAFTA?

 

[Silvie]

Is Mujica out already? Did Tabare get re-elected again??

Where have you been?

 

[camberiu]

Sounds like mind reading to me. That Lula, Rousseff and the PO in general are in favour of (and heavily implementing) anti-Keynesian austerity in a recession is a matter of basic facts. What their intimate fears are, however, is a matter for folks with magic 8 balls and Ouija boards.

Indeed. It takes incredible psychic mind reading powers to figure out why Lula, who over the past 40 years has been an adamant critic of any and all austerity measures, has, after facing millions of people taking to the streets to protest against rising prices, risked enraging his party and Dilma by giving Levy free reign in terms of fiscal policy. I mean, it is indeed one of the unsolvable mysteries of the universe the reason why we see Lula defending drastic austerity measures during speeches for labor unions, saying that "inflation represents the gravest risk to the working class". It takes a prophet or someone with a real working crystal ball to figure that one out.

That said, how about #1? Got any evidence for saying this is indeed a free trade agreement and not an investors' rights accord like NAFTA?

Evidence? They have not even began to negotiating the treaty yet. Do you have any evidence that it isn't?

 

[EdRooney]

OK so let me restate your original point then:

Finally Finally! Brazil and Uruguay are moving ahead without Argentina in negotiations towards a trade agreement with the EU that no one knows what it will look like, but given overwhelming past experience (NAFTA, CAFTA, TPP...) it will have nothing to do with free trade.​

Furthermore, as to your point about the "mystery" of Lula's austerity support: it is impossible to speak about anyone's true motives, yet this is what all ostensibly "leftist" governments do: they rail against austerity but once in power do a better job implementing it than any rightwing government ever could. Examples: Blair, Clinton, SYRIZA, Menem, PSOE, Obama, PASOK, Hollande... History would seem to be a better guide than groping in the dark about "legacies".

 

[camberiu]

OK so let me restate your original point then:

Finally Finally! Brazil and Uruguay are moving ahead without Argentina in negotiations towards a trade agreement with the EU that no one knows what it will look like, but given overwhelming past experience (NAFTA, CAFTA, TPP...) it will have nothing to do with free trade.​

Furthermore, as to your point about the "mystery" of Lula's austerity support: it is impossible to speak about anyone's true motives, yet this is what all ostensibly "leftist" governments do: they rail against austerity but once in power do a better job implementing it than any rightwing government ever could. Examples: Blair, Clinton, SYRIZA, Menem, PSOE, Obama, PASOK, Hollande... History would seem to be a better guide than groping in the dark about "legacies".

Well, if you look at Lula's and Dilma economic policies from 2008 until about now, they did the opposite of austerity, in every way imaginable. Then, in the last few months, as prices started sky rocketing, the Real plummeted, Petrobras losing a lot of its value and recorded tens of billions of dollars in losses, the "argentinization of Brazil" becoming a popular meme in the media, and 1 million people went to the streets in Sao Paulo to protest, Lula ordered a 180 degree reversal in policy and put Levy in charge. I'll let you guess the motivations behind that.

 

[camberiu]

OK so let me restate your original point then:

Finally Finally! Brazil and Uruguay are moving ahead without Argentina in negotiations towards a trade agreement with the EU that no one knows what it will look like, but given overwhelming past experience (NAFTA, CAFTA, TPP...) it will have nothing to do with free trade.​

And neither does Mercosur, so what is your point? Let's say that the agreement with the EU is not truly free trade. is it great? No. But better than stuck with an equaliy non-free trade, beggar thy neighbor agreement with semi-rogue nation Argentina.