Without Argentina

[EdRooney]

History shows as a general rule that when you tell political leaders: "anything is better than this!" they will give you precisely what you asked for: cualquier cosa.

I have mentioned NAFTA above as an example, since it is the poster-child for trade agreements: it had the unique effect of sapping the economies of all 3 signatory nations. Mercosur would do well to avoid such a fate.

For an idea of what the EU's ideas of international trade are, one need only look at the mess in its own kitchen: unemployment above 15% in much of the Eurozone, Greece in utter tatters, Latvia with 10% of the population fled due to economic misery, over half of Spain's youth without jobs... There is a basic reason for this: Germany insists on all countries running surpluses but refuses to finance its trade partners (a mathematical impossibility). Having sucked dry Greece, Spain, the Baltics, Portugal, Italy... it now needs new victims. And here comes Camberiú fleeing from the zombie house and says to Dracula "Anywhere is better than the zombie's, let me stay here!"

Trade deals are fine, but given past history the burden of proof is on you to show how it will actually be free and equitable trade.

 

[camberiu]

[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]For an idea of what the EU's ideas of international trade are, one need only look at the mess in its own kitchen: unemployment above 15% in much of the Eurozone, Greece in utter tatters, Latvia with 10% of the population fled due to economic misery, over half of Spain's youth without jobs... [/background]

Trade deals are fine, but given past history the burden of proof is on you to show how it will actually be free and equitable trade.

Really? You are comparing a trade deal with a currency union? There is a HUGE difference between the two. Yes, if Dilma was looking to bring Brazil into the Euro, I'd be up in arms too. But you linking the Eurozone with a free trade agreement between Brazil and the Eu is completely off. Two very different things.

 

[Noesdeayer]

lease,please.Lula said at least 2 years ago that he would make a "deal with the devil",if he thought that it'd be good for Brazil and he has done just that.It remains to be seen how this gamble plays out.Personally,I'd rather believe in the "Confidence Fairy" than the Cristina "Tooth Fairy" concept.Just close your eyes and wish really hard.No harsh spending cuts needed.
EdRooney: Was it only Germany that "sucked Greece,Spain,the Baltics,Portugal and Italy dry" or did irratic ,sclerotic ,corrupt and incompetent local governance have something to do with it?

 

[EdRooney]

That's a good point, but the issue I was raising is how harmful EU trade policy is. Look at the history: the two become intertwined.

For example, note in the article that Brazil's move toward a trade zone was accompanied by a visit from the IMF. Now compare that to Greece's situation: Greece is locked in a trade zone with Germany that limits its control over exports, and then on the other hand it has the IMF telling it it can't run deficits to stimulate demand to buy the German goods it has been forced to import. I.e., it has both hands tied, both fiscal and monetary policy are out of its control. This was essentially the situation that forced Mexico into default after NAFTA took effect: they signed away control over trade to the US and once the trade imbalance screwed over their growth, they signed control over fiscal policy to the IMF.

Brazil is in recession and the usual economic witchdoctors are prescribing the same no-growth medicine that is keeping Europe in stagnation (medicine that Rousseff is gladly chugging). The less it grows, the more dependent it will become on IMF credit, the more it goes into debt, the more the IMF will control its fiscal policy. At that point, being stuck in a relationship where Germany sucks its demand dry just as it is doing now with Greece, would mean that the tools for Brazil to return to growth (ie, fiscal + monetary) would be completely disabled: both hands tied behind its back.

Look, I'm not saying that a trade deal would necessarily be a bad thing. In fact none of this has to happen if Mercosur or Brazil on its own can reach an agreement that looks nothing like NAFTA/CAFTA/TPP. What I don't understand is your assumption that anything is better than being chained to zombie Argentina. Can't you just say: "this may be positive but we have to work to ensure we dont get screwed?"

 

[thorsten]

EdRooney, do you really believe the major issues Greece is facing nowadays come primarily from the trade zone? I agree that this is not too advantageous for Greece, but honestly I think Greece is a bit like the Argentina of the EU - always looking for the fault externally, not acknowledging that they didn't reform the country for decades, lived over their means at the cost of future generations and a ton of mismanagement in all areas of public services - and this is still the case, even with the newly elected government.

 

[camberiu]

He is completely off, mixing up the eurozone with the European common market. The European common market was founded is 1957 and brought huge economic gains to all member countries, including Greece, Spain and Portugal. Even the most radical euro skeptics admint that the free trade zone known as the European Common Market worked extremely well as a means to bring economic development to Europe. Things went to hell after the maastricht treaty and the creation of the European Union and ultimately the Euro, which is a completely different animal. Blaming the current crisis in Greece, Spain and similar on free trade is completely misguided.

 

[EricBluegrassFiddle]

¿Te dormiste?

No sigo mucha la politica aca como antes....prefiero Netflix.