$200 Limit Now Includes Card Payments

[Iznogud]

I heard this retroactive starting 9/1.

Remember many years ago when the then government went after the hard currency received foreign pensionees?

Smells like a future deja vu is coming.

Iz

 

[Iznogud]

To the regular Joe, it might look like they're after the nickle and dimes of Netflix, Amazon Prime, Spotify and other subscriptions. Not to mention a large number of internet domains .com eegistered abroad. Might look like small potatoes.

But the broader picture is importers and companies with foreign credits are being told they will only be enable to cover 40% of their debt and must refinance the rest. As if it was an easy task.

Hard days ahead for all of us. The fan stands no chance.

Iz

 

[EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre]

To the regular Joe, it might look like they're after the nickle and dimes of Netflix, Amazon Prime, Spotify and other subscriptions. Not to mention a large number of internet domains .com eegistered abroad. Might look like small potatoes.

But the broader picture is importers and companies with foreign credits are being told they will only be enable to cover 40% of their debt and must refinance the rest. As if it was an easy task.

Hard days ahead for all of us. The fan stands no chance.

Iz

Oh, everyone in Argentina is about to get trounced and pay the piper. This is going to get awful ugly.

There are some signs.

We have multinationals and strong regionals fleeing the country en masse.

Currency controls, obviously.

Inflation can not be reined in.

Virus numbers not co operating.

Unemployment as well as lots of sectors grounded from working.

Anyone care to add? Be my guest. This is going to be some kind of a fall.

 

[Johnny]

Sent some yesterday. So far so good.

Sent some today.

 

[antipodean]

Oh, everyone in Argentina is about to get trounced and pay the piper. This is going to get awful ugly.

There are some signs.

We have multinationals and strong regionals fleeing the country en masse.

Currency controls, obviously.

Inflation can not be reined in.

Virus numbers not co operating.

Unemployment as well as lots of sectors grounded from working.

Anyone care to add? Be my guest. This is going to be some kind of a fall.

A state that is almost out of USD reserves to pay the bills, and can barely pays its bills in ARS.

Poverty rates exceeding 50%.

Land grabs.

Insecurity.

Mass protests.

Political infighting (even within the Peronist camp)

Judicial “reform” increasingly viewed as impunity and further delegitimizing institutions.

Labour unrest.

Low approval ratings of the president and many governors.

Elections next year.

Crazy new projects by some legislators, like censoring the internet and other areas of speech.

The sensation is that the country is being ripped apart by a short sighted political class who are only looking out for their own interests, meanwhile everything else falls into the crevasse. The only way for those politicians to protect their interests is to “dig in” and get even more aggressive as resentment towards them grows.
Am conscious of using the “V word” the illustrate the risk usually results in eye rolls, but it is an example of politics gone wrong and self-preservation by the political class to escape accountability. Like many screwed up countries, when there is popular resistance or dissatisfaction, tools of state oppression come out to play - including economic, legal and even criminal tools. On the other hand the fear of such oppression can lead to equally bad consequences as people feel the need to fight the perceived (or real) threat.

 

[Dougie]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1306210813749981185

 

[Dougie]

A state that is almost out of USD reserves to pay the bills, and can barely pays its bills in ARS.

Poverty rates exceeding 50%.

Land grabs.

Insecurity.

Mass protests.

Political infighting (even within the Peronist camp)

Judicial “reform” increasingly viewed as impunity and further delegitimizing institutions.

Labour unrest.

Low approval ratings of the president and many governors.

Elections next year.

Crazy new projects by some legislators, like censoring the internet and other areas of speech.

The sensation is that the country is being ripped apart by a short sighted political class who are only looking out for their own interests, meanwhile everything else falls into the crevasse. The only way for those politicians to protect their interests is to “dig in” and get even more aggressive as resentment towards them grows.
Am conscious of using the “V word” the illustrate the risk usually results in eye rolls, but it is an example of politics gone wrong and self-preservation by the political class to escape accountability. Like many screwed up countries, when there is popular resistance or dissatisfaction, tools of state oppression come out to play - including economic, legal and even criminal tools. On the other hand the fear of such oppression can lead to equally bad consequences as people feel the need to fight the perceived (or real) threat.

Antipodean -

How do you see this unfolding over the next year? Is there a slow decline Venezuela style, where imports even essential ones, become more rare due to the lack of dollars, is there a massive official devaluation? Does AF finish his term?

 

[Iznogud]

Question is: Is this part of the Big Plan?

Does look like the 2001 Shitstorm is brewing again, PLUS the Virus, PLUS the rest of the World is not much better shape, PLUS the Gvmt is doing its best effort to piss everyone eventually willing and potentialy able to help, both internally and internationally.

As in 2001, we are fully exhausted by the efforts made to get this far.

Looks familiar?

But, if you have buried enough money, you'll be able to buy most of the country in a short while.
No questions asked, of course...

Iz

 

[antipodean]

Antipodean -

How do you see this unfolding over the next year? Is there a slow decline Venezuela style, where imports even essential ones, become more rare due to the lack of dollars, is there a massive official devaluation? Does AF finish his term?

Realistically, and best case, I see this as being as just another very stressful and long chapter in the never ending saga that is Argentina.
I do struggle to see Alberto finish his term, the most telling sign for me is the political distancing that is occurring within the Peronist camp, and even by his VP. Last time the movement turned their back on their President it did not end well for that President, after all a movement that has taken the better part of century to build is way bigger and more important than any monkey wearing a presidential sash. My feeling is that the health situation is going to end up being so bad that there will be no way to say any of the deliberate economic harm done by the President was justified, that yes or yes heads will need to roll or someone needs to lay on their sword. Then another monkey will take over, undo a whole lot of changes before some other monkey comes into power and changes again - at all times barely keeping afloat by keeping the masses (or whoever has what they need at that time) the least pissed off as possible, but always with another crisis waiting at the next corner.

The risk scenario however is far higher than ever before that the situation has become or is becoming so bad that it may be impossible to reverse or even slow, and yes we would end up with even more similarities to Venezuela. When people get hungry they get angry, and that is when things accelerate to either appease them with self-destructive popularism or to oppress them with authoritarianism, or a bit of both. I would see this occurring if Alberto manages to drag Peronism down with him before they can distance themselves in sufficient time. Then it is chau for 20+ years.

Another scenario but even harder to see, would be a shift towards liberalisation, but this could also be dangerous if improvised and rushed as could end up with a huge chunk of the Argentines now suffering from poverty trapped in an irreversible manner, making the country more akin to a typical Latin American country where while open, is still poor and for all intensive purposes it is not somewhere most people would choose to be due to the problems that go with that. This scenario would take one hell of a good leader to pull off in a successful way however that protects the interests of all sectors of society and creates a real future for everyone.

 

[QuilmesSlo]

Look for the China card: credit facility, infrastructure project, energy/mining concessions, and sinovac vaccine.

All should have exit strategy. I do not believe in panic-driven decisions; however, an exit strategy is the best way to avoid panic-drive decisions.