6,337 New Covid-19 Infections 7/30, Extended Quarantine..?

[bartleby]

The entire narrative driven by the MSM,of course...

 

[dsp27]

The positivity rate is 42%, not 50+ (see here: https://www.buenosaires.gob.ar/laci...operativo-detectar-en-la-ciudad-son-positivos), and given that testing isn't random, suspected infected people and their close contacts are being tested here, as well as health professionals, it's very unlikely you'd get a positivity rate close to 5%.

And while 7500 infected people in a day is not a small number, it makes more sense to consider it as a percentage (we can do that, right?). The rate of increase in Argentina is ticking up by 2.5 - 3.5% per day, not great, but it's not a surge. The rate of increase is much less than it was earlier in the pandemic, and the R-number is estimated to be very close to 1. Current predictions (https://covid19-projections.com/argentina) show a possible peak toward the end of this month and about 15,000 total deaths. If that comes true, Argentina will have done very well indeed, compared to other Latin American countries.

But sure, maybe FOMO and Instagram jealousy should inform public health policy ;-)

It would be interesting to see what % of the people who die from Covid-19 were actually going to pass away from old age or a secondary heath condition within 2 years. I guess we will know the "true" winners and losers in 3-4 years once we can run the statistics and check. The fue, poverty, crime, depression, alcoholism (some exacerbated by the total shut down) also kill thousands of people but obviously no one is paying attention to those figures. And everyone is obsessed with Covid-19 (meanwhile CFK is taking over all the poderes). I fear we will end up adding a few months to the lives of some elderly people at the end of their lives while subjecting a much large number of the younger and active population to a decade of poverty and ultimately reduced lifespans and quality of life for an entire generation. I am not advocating going a la Brasil or US, these are the other extremes, but ultimately we need to learn to live with Covid until there is a vaccine.

P.S. The positivity rate should be ~10% or less of tests. 40% even with targeted testing is way too high. This tells us the true rate of infection is likely 2-3x larger than the ones reported.

 

[antipodean]

The positivity rate is 42%, not 50+ (see here: https://www.buenosaires.gob.ar/laci...operativo-detectar-en-la-ciudad-son-positivos), and given that testing isn't random, suspected infected people and their close contacts are being tested here, as well as health professionals, it's very unlikely you'd get a positivity rate close to 5%.

And while 7500 infected people in a day is not a small number, it makes more sense to consider it as a percentage (we can do that, right?). The rate of increase in Argentina is ticking up by 2.5 - 3.5% per day, not great, but it's not a surge. The rate of increase is much less than it was earlier in the pandemic, and the R-number is estimated to be very close to 1. Current predictions (https://covid19-projections.com/argentina) show a possible peak toward the end of this month and about 15,000 total deaths. If that comes true, Argentina will have done very well indeed, compared to other Latin American countries.

But sure, maybe FOMO and Instagram jealousy should inform public health policy ;-)

Thats fantastic news, but 42% and R1.03ish is CABA, which is actually doing "better" than many places especially with testing programs and despite it having "looser" restrictions that other provinces. Do you have the latest national stats on positivity rates and R-number, including PBA?

Projections on cases and deaths are all well and nice, but unless someone can project when the virus will actually end, it is kinda strange to celebrate a final death toll before talking about the pandemic in past tense.

Anyway for some global and regional perspective of the situation today:

 

[Johnny]

I don't know that I've ever seen so many people who can chew on the same worn out gristle, over and over and over again.

 

[EL_TIGRE_de_Tigre]

I don't know that I've ever seen so many people who can chew on the same worn out gristle, over and over and over again.

IMPRESSIVE ... huh?

 

[antipodean]

140+ days of quarantine - one starts to run out of hobbies and things to renovate around the home

 

[Renzi]

I don't know that I've ever seen so many people who can chew on the same worn out gristle, over and over and over again.

I enjoy scrolling through pages and pages colorful scatterplots in search of an actual point that's trying to be made.

 

[Alby]

Thats fantastic news, but 42% and R1.03ish is CABA, which is actually doing "better" than many places especially with testing programs and despite it having "looser" restrictions that other provinces. Do you have the latest national stats on positivity rates and R-number, including PBA?

Projections on cases and deaths are all well and nice, but unless someone can project when the virus will actually end, it is kinda strange to celebrate a final death toll before talking about the pandemic in past tense.

Anyway for some global and regional perspective of the situation today:

View attachment 7189View attachment 7190View attachment 7191View attachment 7192View attachment 7193View attachment 7194

Exactly why the comparisons being made by many pundits and governments between Sweden and its neighbors (and the resulting premature declaration that the Swedish model failed) are nonesence. The Swedes maintain that in 12 months the deaths will be on a par, but their economy will have held up better. It will be interesting to see who turns out to be right.

 

[FrankPintor]

It would be interesting to see what % of the people who die from Covid-19 were actually going to pass away from old age or a secondary heath condition within 2 years. I guess we will know the "true" winners and losers in 3-4 years once we can run the statistics and check. The fue, poverty, crime, depression, alcoholism (some exacerbated by the total shut down) also kill thousands of people but obviously no one is paying attention to those figures. And everyone is obsessed with Covid-19 (meanwhile CFK is taking over all the poderes). I fear we will end up adding a few months to the lives of some elderly people at the end of their lives while subjecting a much large number of the younger and active population to a decade of poverty and ultimately reduced lifespans and quality of life for an entire generation. I am not advocating going a la Brasil or US, these are the other extremes, but ultimately we need to learn to live with Covid until there is a vaccine.

P.S. The positivity rate should be ~10% or less of tests. 40% even with targeted testing is way too high. This tells us the true rate of infection is likely 2-3x larger than the ones reported.

You're right, it would be interesting to know that. There are lots of links out there if you want to search for "years of life lost" or YLL for short, and of course "Covid-19". I've seen estimates of 11 - 15 years of YLL per Covid victim, which is perhaps a bit higher than you'd expect, and it does seem to indicate that the virus isn't just taking the oldest and weakest.

 

[Alby]

There are a couple of gaping holes in the data so far.

There is not enough breakdown of deaths by age cohort. We know the oldest people are the most likely to die and the young people the least. But there is a huge group of people in between; it would be nice to know that what the death rate is for each cohort, so that each person could make a judgement about her or her likehihood of dying based on his or her age, instead of based on the average across all age groups.

It would also be good to know what percentage of survivers of the virus are becoming long haulers. We all read horror stories of their experiences and none of us would want to become one. But, again, to assess our risk and to decide how to go about life in this new world, it would be useful to know if those cases are few and far between, or quite common, and, also have that figure by age cohort.