scotttswan
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Is Dilma not one of the few Brazilian politicians who hasn't been personally linked in the lava jato investigation. Whilst some of the people impeaching her are heavily involved.
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camberiu
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Dilma's impeachment had nothing to do with Lava Jato. She is being impeached for cooking up the government finances.
The Supreme Court, of which 8 of the 12 serving justices were appointed either by her or by Lula, has ruled that the impeachment proceedings are lawful and constitutional.
Cunha, the speaker of the house and one of the main sponsors of the impeachment has just been removed from power by the supreme Court. Temer, the vice president and the would be President of she is impeached, is probably next to be targeted by the supreme Court.
Time to take the trash out, from all parties.
The Supreme Court, of which 8 of the 12 serving justices were appointed either by her or by Lula, has ruled that the impeachment proceedings are lawful and constitutional.
Cunha, the speaker of the house and one of the main sponsors of the impeachment has just been removed from power by the supreme Court. Temer, the vice president and the would be President of she is impeached, is probably next to be targeted by the supreme Court.
Time to take the trash out, from all parties.
scotttswan
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Will anyone be left?
camberiu
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If the judiciary does it job, very few will be left. Most of them will be getting a "visit" from the nice Japanese federal police agent (as Lula calls him).
Noesdeayer
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Dilma is being impeached on a technicality which had been used several times before with other Brazilian administrations.
As a columnist in "Folha de Sao Paulo"-probably the most reliable newspaper in Brazil-wrote last week this is not a coup d'etat.It is a cover up cooked up Cubha,Temer et all
in order to try and hide their own corruption in that they seem to have failed.I am not a Brazilian but I say Dilma's hands are clean.If she goes who,indeed,is going to be a better president for ALL of the Brazilians and not for only a few? That is the big question?
Apparently,Henrique Meirelles will be appointed by Temer and will enact necessary budget cuts in retirement,social plans,stricter taxation etc.
Will the PT and the "Sem Terra" "Landless Peasant Grouping" take this lying down? Humn? The big winner is,of course,the Brazilian Judiciary which deserves sincere congratulations. O Brasil Pra Frente --------Forward Brazil !!
As a columnist in "Folha de Sao Paulo"-probably the most reliable newspaper in Brazil-wrote last week this is not a coup d'etat.It is a cover up cooked up Cubha,Temer et all
in order to try and hide their own corruption in that they seem to have failed.I am not a Brazilian but I say Dilma's hands are clean.If she goes who,indeed,is going to be a better president for ALL of the Brazilians and not for only a few? That is the big question?
Apparently,Henrique Meirelles will be appointed by Temer and will enact necessary budget cuts in retirement,social plans,stricter taxation etc.
Will the PT and the "Sem Terra" "Landless Peasant Grouping" take this lying down? Humn? The big winner is,of course,the Brazilian Judiciary which deserves sincere congratulations. O Brasil Pra Frente --------Forward Brazil !!
camberiu
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I would not call a federal crime and a violation of the Fiscal Responsibility law a "technicality". People did some serious jail time at MCI Worldcom and Enron for lesser book keeping "technicalities". The fact that this crime was not persecuted before does not make it OK.
Even the former attorney of her party, who she indicated to the supreme court, ruled that the impeachment proceedings are legal and constitutional. Again, Her former party lawyer. Who she indicated to the Supreme Court.
No, they are not. She used everything on her power to try to derail the Lava Jato investigations, including cutting funding to the Federal Police. She put the Brazilian Intelligence Service to unlawfully monitor the phone calls and emails of the judges and prosecutors on the Lava Jato investigation, and as soon as they informed her that Lula's arrest warrant was about to be issued, she nominated him as a minister, in order for him to gain immunity.
Once she is impeached, they will come after her and Lula really hard.
Who knows. The country is polarized at a level we have never seen before. Temer is a weak politician who might have a very short term, since his candidacy might be invalidate by the Supreme Court due to the campaign finance fraud practiced by Dilma (he is her vice-president, after all).
Nobody knows what will happen. But that is not excuse not to prosecute corrupt politicians.
rrptownley
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This Washington Post article gives an excellent summary of Rousseff's impeachment and the principal players involved.
camberiu
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"[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]Brazil is not Argentina. High inflation is politically unacceptable in Brazil. Any government today that takes the high inflation route is committing political suicide. I am very skeptical that Dilma will finish her term. If an impeachment happens, I expect political change to have profound impact on Argentina's economy. It is Dilma who insists in subsidize Argentina by accepting their violations of the Mercosur treaty without repercussions. Her successor would face tremendous political pressure to change that posture."[/background]
[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)] -Camberiu, July 2015[/background]
[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]So it came to pass. Today mark the day in which the Dilma government and the 14 year long Lula's reign over Brazil comes to an end. It is the second presidential impeachment in Brazil within the last 25 years. Any presidential impeachment is a traumatic experience, and this one in particular left the nation polarized at a a level we have never seen before. Large segments benefited greatly from Dilma's clientelist/populist policies, and are sad to see her go. While others, overburden by a regime that implemented the heaviest tax burden in the history of the country (much of it ended up stolen) are gleeful to see her go, and welcoming of change. [/background]
[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]But the big takeaway of the whole process is how much stronger and credible the Brazilian republican institutions have become since the end of the military dictatorship in 1984. In these last 32 years many things happened: we had a popular indirected elected president who died on the eve of taking office and was replaced by a highly unpopular vice president. A new constitution was drafted. It was bloated and overbearing, but also made nepotism within the state apparatus virtually impossible, and allowed for a new generation of police, judges and prosecutors to be hired and promoted exclusively on merit, instead of political connections and affiliations. We elected a populist right wing president who froze the bank account of millions, tried to control inflation with crazy unorthodox economic policies and ended up impeached. He was replaced by Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who re-invented Brazil by managing to build the most broad and consensual political coalition in the history of the country. The Real currency was born, the federal budget was balanced and over 100 years of inflation was put to an end. Fiscal responsibility laws were put into place, and the judiciary was charged with oversight and auditing of government finances, and government owned business were privatized. We then elected a populist left wing government, who remained in power for over 14 years and reversed most of the reforms implemented by the previous administration. A while corruption rose to unprecedented, for the first time in Brazilian history, the judiciary rose to the challenge. The rules established by the 1988 Constitution bore fruit , and a new generation of politically unaffiliated police investigators, prosecutors and judges leaped into action and politicians, public servants and extremely wealthy businessmen were investigated, charged, arrested and tried, something unprecedented in Brazilian history. And more importantly, as Dilma is being impeached, as her supporters and opponents stage large and loud protests, the military remains secluded inside their barracks, completely uninterested on the political developments and committed to limit their role to what was specified by the Constitution. Considering that historically, political turmoil in Brazil inevitably lead to political coups, military interventions and bloodshed, that fact that none of that happened over the past 32 years is quite remarkable, and demonstrates that, although still full of problems, the public and the political institutions in Brazil have matured. [/background]
[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]No one but a true prophet can accurately predict what the political landscape in Brazil will look like moving forward, but the latest developments seem to confirm my expectations that whatever happens moving forward, the faith of the people on the institutions and the rule of law today are at an unprecedented level. [/background]
[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)] -Camberiu, July 2015[/background]
[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]So it came to pass. Today mark the day in which the Dilma government and the 14 year long Lula's reign over Brazil comes to an end. It is the second presidential impeachment in Brazil within the last 25 years. Any presidential impeachment is a traumatic experience, and this one in particular left the nation polarized at a a level we have never seen before. Large segments benefited greatly from Dilma's clientelist/populist policies, and are sad to see her go. While others, overburden by a regime that implemented the heaviest tax burden in the history of the country (much of it ended up stolen) are gleeful to see her go, and welcoming of change. [/background]
[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]But the big takeaway of the whole process is how much stronger and credible the Brazilian republican institutions have become since the end of the military dictatorship in 1984. In these last 32 years many things happened: we had a popular indirected elected president who died on the eve of taking office and was replaced by a highly unpopular vice president. A new constitution was drafted. It was bloated and overbearing, but also made nepotism within the state apparatus virtually impossible, and allowed for a new generation of police, judges and prosecutors to be hired and promoted exclusively on merit, instead of political connections and affiliations. We elected a populist right wing president who froze the bank account of millions, tried to control inflation with crazy unorthodox economic policies and ended up impeached. He was replaced by Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who re-invented Brazil by managing to build the most broad and consensual political coalition in the history of the country. The Real currency was born, the federal budget was balanced and over 100 years of inflation was put to an end. Fiscal responsibility laws were put into place, and the judiciary was charged with oversight and auditing of government finances, and government owned business were privatized. We then elected a populist left wing government, who remained in power for over 14 years and reversed most of the reforms implemented by the previous administration. A while corruption rose to unprecedented, for the first time in Brazilian history, the judiciary rose to the challenge. The rules established by the 1988 Constitution bore fruit , and a new generation of politically unaffiliated police investigators, prosecutors and judges leaped into action and politicians, public servants and extremely wealthy businessmen were investigated, charged, arrested and tried, something unprecedented in Brazilian history. And more importantly, as Dilma is being impeached, as her supporters and opponents stage large and loud protests, the military remains secluded inside their barracks, completely uninterested on the political developments and committed to limit their role to what was specified by the Constitution. Considering that historically, political turmoil in Brazil inevitably lead to political coups, military interventions and bloodshed, that fact that none of that happened over the past 32 years is quite remarkable, and demonstrates that, although still full of problems, the public and the political institutions in Brazil have matured. [/background]
[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]No one but a true prophet can accurately predict what the political landscape in Brazil will look like moving forward, but the latest developments seem to confirm my expectations that whatever happens moving forward, the faith of the people on the institutions and the rule of law today are at an unprecedented level. [/background]
Noesdeayer
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Camberiu:
A very complete and interesting analysis. Congratulations are indeed in order to Brazil's institutions and the rule of law that ,as you say,"are at an unprecedented level"..
However,as a U.S.observor who knows Brazil ,I am not altogether convinced that Lula's and Dilma's policies and programs --Zero Hunger and the use of Cuban doctors in northern areas where Brazilian medics were not interested in working -to name just 2 , were simply " clientist/populist".They served a definite purpose for Brazil's poor and for which they were internationally praised.Moreover,in my view and that of other U.S. citizens the raising of approximately 25 million Brazilians into the middle income grouping with its acompaning beneficial effects on the economy should not be ignored.
Finally,a simple question.In Brazil where 7% are of pure African descent and about 45% are mixed race how can you explain that there were so very few black or mixed race faces in the "large and loud" and "gleeful" crowds cheering her impeachment ? Incredibly,I even saw one in black face As an Afro-U.S. woman friend of mine said to the Cuban authorities on a trip we made there in 2005,"Where are all the black people?".They are over 50% of the Brazilian population!
A very complete and interesting analysis. Congratulations are indeed in order to Brazil's institutions and the rule of law that ,as you say,"are at an unprecedented level"..
However,as a U.S.observor who knows Brazil ,I am not altogether convinced that Lula's and Dilma's policies and programs --Zero Hunger and the use of Cuban doctors in northern areas where Brazilian medics were not interested in working -to name just 2 , were simply " clientist/populist".They served a definite purpose for Brazil's poor and for which they were internationally praised.Moreover,in my view and that of other U.S. citizens the raising of approximately 25 million Brazilians into the middle income grouping with its acompaning beneficial effects on the economy should not be ignored.
Finally,a simple question.In Brazil where 7% are of pure African descent and about 45% are mixed race how can you explain that there were so very few black or mixed race faces in the "large and loud" and "gleeful" crowds cheering her impeachment ? Incredibly,I even saw one in black face As an Afro-U.S. woman friend of mine said to the Cuban authorities on a trip we made there in 2005,"Where are all the black people?".They are over 50% of the Brazilian population!
camberiu
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By foreign academicians who mostly don;t know jack shit about Brazil. Instead of fighting poverty by creating an economic climate that stimulated job creation, employment and entrepreneurship, they did the exact opposite and instead put millions on the dole, with no string attached, in exchange for votes.
I am one of those 45%. So are my cousins. So is my mother. So are my aunts. So are many of my friends. We are all cheering. So is Marina Silva. So is Tia Eron. So is Irmao Larazo. So are tens of MILLION of other mixed race Brazilians. But I guess foreign "observers" build whatever narrative they want to build.
