Argentina economic outlook

[Fettucini]

I read a very interesting report from today from the Center for Economic Policy on Argentina that Pericles posted on the thread about the pension scam, which for me represents a realistic view of the Argentine economy as it looks at all the facts in more detail.

At first I thought maybe it was written by a pro-Argentine-government person, as to see such a swing in reasoning from everything I read in the international press regarding Argentina was strange, but it appears the writer is an important economist from the US, from a very credible firm.

The report basically looks at all the factors of the Argentine economy and explains why the prospects of a default in 2009 or the distant future have not much reasoning, especially compared to how the press have portraid it in recent weeks.

I would be interested in other people's opinions on this report, as below:
CEPR - Argentina: The Crisis That Isn't

Do you think this is a realistic or optimistic view of Argentina?

Why then do all the international press say the opposite? This report looks pretty well researched I think. Is there something missing here?

 

[Grazie]

It never hurts to be positive during these tough economic times. Reality bites!

 

[Fettucini]

So you think that the writer is being overly positive about Argentina? On which of his points would you argue against?
Or maybe he has a reason to want to promote Argentina in a positive way? I don't know.

 

[perry]

Thanks Fettuchini for posting this and I am not an apologist for the Kirchner government as some have said on this forum. Yes I have strong beliefs and opinions but I temper that by presenting facts as well as listening to other opinions from reliable sources.



For me Argentina has been the only Last Frontier and our great isolation from the world will be our blessing in the future.

 

[objectiveous]

Why then do all the international press say the opposite? This report looks pretty well researched I think. Is there something missing here?

One possible explanation is the effect that the announcement had on investors. In other words, regardless of the governments intention, the result has been very bad.

Also, it's important to look at the set of signals that the government is sending and not just this particular issue. For example, the official inflation numbers.

 

[criswkh]

If you talk with most Argentina people they are worried about what will be coming in 2009 or 2010. Some people say it won't be as bad as 2001. I would like to be optimist on the whole economic situation, but then again with all the different numbers one can never really know. Just be prepared...

 

[citygirl]

I read the report with a great deal of interest as well and found they had some very credible points. Thank you Pericles for posting that link.

I do think they underestimated the drop in pricing for commodities and overestimated the economic growth. However, it did raise some interesting points that are worth for me further investigation.

However as objectiveous states, the government certainly isn't sending out positive economic signals. From nationalizing the private pension plans to consistently under-stating the inflation rate (which is probably closer to 30%), the actions raise warning signals.

 

[Fettucini]

There's more interesting research here from Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley - Global Economic Forum
It's the second story down in the page

 

[Stanexpat]

I read a very interesting report from today from the Center for Economic Policy on Argentina that Pericles posted on the thread about the pension scam, which for me represents a realistic view of the Argentine economy as it looks at all the facts in more detail.

At first I thought maybe it was written by a pro-Argentine-government person, as to see such a swing in reasoning from everything I read in the international press regarding Argentina was strange, but it appears the writer is an important economist from the US, from a very credible firm.

The report basically looks at all the factors of the Argentine economy and explains why the prospects of a default in 2009 or the distant future have not much reasoning, especially compared to how the press have portraid it in recent weeks.

I would be interested in other people's opinions on this report, as below:
CEPR - Argentina: The Crisis That Isn't

Do you think this is a realistic or optimistic view of Argentina?

Why then do all the international press say the opposite? This report looks pretty well researched I think. Is there something missing here?

The author of this report is a far left guy and big supporter of Hugo Chavez. Of course he's a also probably going to say nice things about Hugo's pals as well. Unless you are a big supporter Hugo's I would think anything this guy says is suspect and certainly doesn't represent mainstream reputable economic thinking. An article of this guy supporting Chavez can be found in the link below. This is only one of many pro-Chavez stuff this guy has written.

Mark Weisbrot: Democracy Still Alive and Well in Venezuela

 

[Stanexpat]

There's more interesting research here from Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley - Global Economic Forum
It's the second story down in the page

I agree with the Morgan Stanley assessment. Of course a lot has changed in the couple of months since this was written including the events of the current week. It would be interesting what they would say today.