Argentina is in a lot of trouble in the near to mid term (1 to 5 years) ... and quite possibly the longer term (5 to 25 years - A FULL GENERATION or more!) if the current administration mis steps (And I am betting that they will - I don't have so much confidence in them from what I have seen so far.)
odds?
1 to 5 years ... 99.9% (Not 100% because it's never wise to be that sure of anything.) certain life, existence and opportunity will equal or possibly exceed what it was like in the 2001 time frame. This economy is about to get FLATTENED by an ASTEROID with a DIRECT HIT! And tis is why I am expecting an exodus en masse by all those who are able when travel resumes.
5 to 25 years 90% (THAT IS VERY STRONG!) Before the pandemic, Argentina had a plate full of problems. Post pandemic, thrown in a wrecked economy from closure ... with lack of tourism ... and no willing international investment of any size. (There are much better places elsewhere post pandemic ... much more attractive.) I have not yet said the following, but others have and I am in full agreement now ... Here goes:
Argentina is about to mirror Venezuela. And everyone knows how that is turning out. The only real difference it that Argentina has elected official by democratic process and not despots. Either way, their abilities and thinking are similar enough to get the same mess. And once you have a mess, it is hard to recover. The people of Argentina have lived through 2001 ... I have to imaging that those who are thrown back into the soup again are going to loos a bit of zing this time around. It is and will be a real morale breaker. Productivity is going to plummet in this country.
How can you argue with this forecast? (And I tried my best to be OBJECTIVE!)