pericles said:
Let me answer this question with all the information that I know . Personally I have never sold an apartment in Puerto Madero as I do not like the neighbourhood and find it lacking soul.
The real prices in Buenos Aires are nowhere near the figures you have quoted and are average prices of 2000 US dollars a metre. In many neighbourhoods with gorgeous architecture 1000 to 1500 US dollars a metre you can find property that is very attractive.
Pericles, I know that in average neighborhoods the sq mt is around 1700usd, premium areas in Recoleta, Palermo and Belgrano are over 2000usd, In Puerto Madero the sq mt is over 4000usd for some buildings ( I will post some links later on )
pericles said:
Regarding the Official Data this is completely true and it is due to many factors ie. less properties for sale due to Government regulations that closely monitor the sale price. In the high demand areas or Recoleta and Barrio Norte including Palermo there is very high demand still with a small volume for sale. The foreign market of late has slowed considerably due to worldwide aprehension as well as the Farmers Strike that completely slowed the economy for three months.
I agree with you, but by word of mouth I hear some sellers taking offers at around 8% less of the asking price. I have seen the prices for properties increase in the last 6 months, I have followed several properties, for example a 2 br apt that was initially being sold at 77000usd several months ago, it is now at 98000usd and
still unsold... so yes, prices keep going up, but there is no demand to convalidate these prices. Of course there are exceptions, but in the big numbers these prices are not being accepted
pericles said:
Regarding Buying in Miami there is absolutely no comparison to buying in Buenos Aires as you are buying in a depression as well as in a city that is prone to constant Hurricanes Rents of property in USA give a very small return which in many cases are less than 2 percent per annum . In Buenos Aires the returns can be up 10 percent and more per annum.
I am not comparing architecture or cultural life, but I see that for some time now, the real estate market here has been mainly an investors market, and investors do not care about architecture or city life, they want to make $, they bought in BA cheap back in 2001/02, they sold with a nice profit already, and right now, there are no buyers. They already have their money and are surely buying in Europe and/or the US to sell in some 4-6 yrs. Regarding rentals here, the general profit is at a 6% for long term rentals - a historic low - and the short term market will be affected by the world recession that will cause tourism to decline. The only way the short term rental market will survive is through another peso devaluation.
Certain premium properties in premium areas ( and I am not talking about whole neighborhoods, but specific blocks and buildings ) might keep their price/value in time, but we are talking 7 figures here.
pericles said:
I do believe that we will have a Worldwide depression and of course Argentina will be affected . Saying that we are one of the very few countries in the world that has a independent system now that will work in our favour in the coming years. Few people here will lose their life savings and their homes due to the compulsive gamblers of Wall Street who have put the World at great peril.
The participation of Argentines in the stock market and in the Banking system is less than 10 percent . In most countries of Europe and the USA it is over 70 percent.
If you look at the Great Wall Street Crash of 1929 Argentina was much better off than USA and Australia where I grew up. Unemployment reached 50 percent in this dark period something that was unheard of in Argentina.
People need to realise that we have the worlds richest land, the Worlds best water supplies and also one of the worlds most educated and literate population . This combined with our isolation from the Calamity of the World Financial markets will put us in great stead in the next years.
I don´t think the system is independant here, lets see what happens with commodities and less exports. I agree about the banking system, but I think it is the combination of uncertainty abroad, and a dark history of Argentine banks keeping people´s savings, unpaid debt, etc what causes investors to not trust this country. As much as I think the region should network, I don´t think a lack of financial markets and access to credit ( any type of it, mortgages, industry loans, etc ) will do any good. Capitalism is not dead, and I don´t think going the Chavez/Evo/Fidel way is the solution. We might not starve, but that won´t turn us into a developed country.
