Argentines start bringing their money home

[Rad]

Who said that nobody will want to go to BsAs? There will always be tourists coming to Argentina. But it may be 30% or 40% less in 2009 than in 2008. That WILL have negative effect on buy-to-let businesses.
Btw, airfare from London to Barcelona is maybe 50 Euros (or 40 GBP). Airfare from London to BsAs is 1200 Euros. Big difference! The savings on cheap food and wine in BsAs will not balance it out. And the Brits are now cancelling their cheap vacations to Spain. Other Europeans are in similar situation. Spaniards are in deep shit.
Brazilians have to deal with their own problems, like devalued currency for ex. And Americans? Many will choose much cheaper US destinations or Cancun over Argentina.

I am in Canada. I was planning to return to BsAs for this (canadian) winter and although I have no financial problems, I am also thinking of canceling my plans. Will take care of my family business and maybe go for a short vacation in SoCal...

 

[bigbadwolf]

Who said that nobody will want to go to BsAs? There will always be tourists coming to Argentina. But it may be 30% or 40% less in 2009 than in 2008.

Going off-topic but tourism everywhere will take a hit as everyone tightens their belts. Tourist destinations will have to compete more intensively for the tourist dollar or euro -- something mismanaged Argentina is ill-able to do. Even during the heyday of the last few years, the country has been off the beaten track: cities like BsAs lack the crucial infrastructure necessary to support tourism. And Argentina's officials are either too indifferent or too incompetent to do anything about it.

 

[citygirl]

Agreed - I think most people in the world are thinking twice about taking expensive vacations. No one is saying that the tourism dollars will stop completely but there definitely is going to be a decrease in tourism.

And for those that don't think Argentina will be affected - I do think we're seeing a storm brewing here. Look at the factors:
30% inflation
40% drop in commodities prices
??% drop in tourism dollars

I think there will be a market correction here.

 

[syngirl]

I completely agree that the BA and Argentina tourism boom is, perhaps not going to bust, but is certainly going to deflate in the coming months, ie from Christmas through the end of temporada for NA tourists (april or so). Markets are up today, but I've been talking with friends at home who've lost 10k - 50k - 200k in the past few weeks. These people, many of whom are just a few years from retirement, are not going to be flying down to Argentina any time soon. And if they do they'll be even more shocked when they realise the prices are not cheap here compared to what the whole marketing blitz tries to sell them.

As my boss said to me yesterday, when he and his girlfriend came to visit last year he spent about 3k on flights for the two of them, US100-200 a night for hotels, most of which were crappy -- I witnessed this, the rooms were tiny, crap in comparison to things closer to home. They got dinged on internal flights because they don't have DNI, renting an apartment made no sense because they were only anywhere for a few nights at a time, and all the tourist rentals want premiums then. Meals he soon found that although they were cheaper than home, if you wanted a good quality one he'd spend 40 bucks easy. He spent way more on the trip than he would have going to Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia etc

In all, he said to me that as nice as Argentina was, there's no way in this economy he would ever do the 22 hour flight again, when he can get a flight to Mexico for half the price or less, fly only 6-8 hours, and the prices will be the same or better than Argentina. For Canadians, there's a lot more places to go in the 6-10 hour flight range that are just as nice and cheaper than Argentina, so I think a lot will not bother coming down. Same with people from the West coast of the States. It's a long effing flight down here -- that makes a week in Mexico, Panama, Cartagena, or the Caribbean a lot more appealing.

Ecuador is also topping a lot of the tourism lists for being the next "hot" destination and I can't tell you the number of featurettes I've seen on things like GMA about it. BA/Argentina had it's turn in the spotlight last year, of course they start pushing somewhere else. So if they want the tourism boom to continue here they really need to get their s$%t together -- this is not the time to be introducing higher fees, new tourist taxes etc. If the government goes through with this Aerolineas purchase, the first thing they should do is slash prices on all flights coming from NA down here and come up with an internal flight package a la TAM / GOL airlines in Brasil that encourages tourists to get down here and spend.

Argentina loves to make a quick buck, it's never in it for the longterm investment. So here they are, about to eff it all up again. The country seems to just want to get as much money out of the tourists in a couple of years as possible, they make no moves to try and grow the industry into a longterm money maker. Typical of the country, that's why it's aways up down up down.

 

[perry]

I do agree that tourism to Argentina from USA and Europe will go down in the next 1 year. Saying that I believe that tourism from Brazil will continue to grow to offset that . It is Argentinas main source of tourist income bringing in 70 percent of all monies.

In the short term the Dollar will be strong but I am pessimistic about its strength and see it being devalued I do feel that Argentina has become expensive for Europeans and United States citizens due to the get rich mentality prevalent here. I do not agree at all with Hotel prices at current prices and also internal airfares are far too expensive.

Argentina will have a much better ride than Europe and USA in the coming years due to many factors . The simple fact is that there is very little personal credit and a small participation in the stock markets will be our saving grace.

The world as we know it will change dramatically soon

 

[jedard]

Stanexpat.

Your right on the ( pardon the pun) money. Christina has just recently suggested that the ARG GOV will enact a new law to hold 25% of those deposited funds.
As far as the economy in the southern cone, the two countries that are at risk have been identified as Bolivia and Argentina.
Brazil was very far-sighted when they decided to fatten their reserves following the huge increases in the then commodity markets.
Not so Argentina.
Lets see how intelligent these esteem fellow are as we move on

People pulling their money out of insured bank accounts in the U.S. and Europe to bring it back to Argentina is like running into a burning building to avoid a fire.

The banking system in Argentina is rated at 129 out of 134 countries in the following link.

washingtonpost.com

Leaving their money were it was would have been the smart move as the Peso is probably going to fall significantly against the dollar while this crisis continues. What were these people thinking?

 

[jedard]

Sorry Canuk, your wrong, and so are any others who feel the tourist trade is going to decline here in Argentina. One only has to take a look at the passenger loads on Air Canada for example, almost fully booked right through to February.
Argentina has a big draw and its the fallen peso coupled with huge inflation making it a dream vacation for Canadians and the Chinese market.

 

[diosaarenosa]

The top bankers will still get their big bonuses.

Tangobob, not that I take the content of the evening standard very seriously, but this featured yesterday.....

Bankers ‘should repay bonuses’ | News

 

[Rad]

Sorry Canuk, your wrong, and so are any others who feel the tourist trade is going to decline here in Argentina. One only has to take a look at the passenger loads on Air Canada for example, almost fully booked right through to February.
Argentina has a big draw and its the fallen peso coupled with huge inflation making it a dream vacation for Canadians and the Chinese market.

Jedard, you are looking at a lagging indicator. Canadians have been buying vacations because until just recently they have not felt the effects of the global credit crisis. But now, the real estate bubbles in the western provinces have popped, commodities and stock market are down and jobs are not as safe as they were few months ago. I know plenty of people who are now thinking of cancelling their winter vacations.
Also look at the exchange rate - last winter, when I was in BsAs, 1 CAD got me 3.15 ARS. Today, the same 1 CAD gets me only 2.83 ARS. Add 25% - 30% inflation in Argentina and suddenly, things are not as cheap as they were just a year ago.

 

[jedard]

Sure your right but then the load factors on Air Canada seem to tell a different story, unless of course all those booked seats are not tourists.
Canadians are not like the USA, they just don't give a damn. There vacations come first