Blue Dollar 2013 Projections .... Blue Sky...!!

[Rich One]

The above projections below seem Good $8,85.....!!


http://www.infobae.com/notas/685802-En-2013-la-brecha-entre-el-dolar-oficial-y-el-blue-se-ampliaria-hasta-el-50.html

 

[el_expatriado]

The people I talk to think the difference is going to get smaller in 2013 since the government is going to start devaluing at 2% per month now. Remember we got the difference in the first place because they refused to let the dollar keep pace with inflation Now if they fix that, we probably shouldn't see the blue getting too much higher -- i.e. it should maintain a 30-35% difference or perhaps even close the gap.

 

[Rich One]

The people I talk to think the difference is going to get smaller in 2013 since the government is going to start devaluing at 2% per month now. Remember we got the difference in the first place because they refused to let the dollar keep pace with inflation Now if they fix that, we probably shouldn't see the blue getting too much higher -- i.e. it should maintain a 30-35% difference or perhaps even close the gap.

You may be right the gap may stay where it is now...?? However that assumes that all other variables remain steady and no NEW variables intervine...??? The people I talk to believe the gap will increase since inflation will start galloping in 2013....!! Above the 25% level.

 

[Farenheit]

No wonder locals say stuff like "Yanqui, go home" when mercenary foreigners brag about making profits on the devaluation of the national currency.

 

[MikeB12]

What's immoral about passively benefiting from the mismanagement of a currency? No one on this thread is talking about actively putting pressure on the peso like George Soros did to the british pound.

Economists have a pretty bad record of making predictions, its impossible to account for black swan events which account for the bulk of variance.

 

[Rich One]

No wonder locals say stuff like "Yanqui, go home" when mercenary foreigners brag about making profits on the devaluation of the national currency.

Yanqui Go Home...?? now is more like Yanqui Come Home .... We need Chevron et. al. badly to invest in Argentina...!! Only Yanquis benefit from the devaluation ?

 

[French jurist]

It would be interesting to check what those analysts forecasted during the past years.

That's indeed quite sure the official rate will devaluate more quickly during the year to come.
Not that sure that the spread will increase though (my intuition tells me it will remain about the same or even decrease a bit but I'm no expert).

On the very short term (by the end of december), I was expecting the blue to reach 7:1, it might well reach it (already going up lately) or at least 6.70/6.80 (we'll know in about 7/10 days with the half aguinaldo).
I wonder too if the blue will decrease slightly in january or february... That could well be.

Now let's wish that the summer season will make nice crops for the Argentinean economy (Achilles' heel?).

 

[Rich One]

It would be interesting to check what those analysts forecasted during the past years.

That's indeed quite sure the official rate will devaluate more quickly during the year to come.
Not that sure that the spread will increase though (my intuition tells me it will remain about the same or even decrease a bit but I'm no expert).

On the very short term (by the end of december), I was expecting the blue to reach 7:1, it might well reach it (already going up lately) or at least 6.70/6.80 (we'll know in about 7/10 days with the half aguinaldo).
I wonder too if the blue will decrease slightly in january or february... That could well be.

Now let's wish that the summer season will make nice crops for the Argentinean economy (Achilles' heel?).

You will be correct! you have covered all bases, increase, decrease and stay the same

 

[ElQueso]

No wonder locals say stuff like "Yanqui, go home" when mercenary foreigners brag about making profits on the devaluation of the national currency.

Yeah...instead of being pissed off at their own government's mismanagement of their economy and currency?

 

[Sockhopper]

It must feel rotten to be an Argentine living on a peso income from his local employer and out for a modest meal to see foreigners at the next table buying expensive wines because they got their pesos with $US at the black market, 30% plus better, exchange rate. Especially when those foreigners so often say that their country's systems and its approaches to money are better or uncorrupted. Were I Argentine, I'd hope that they're here for a more dignified reason than needing somewhere to luxe out in on the cheap or because they thought they should just be able to live here and have more than 90% of Argentines have.

Imagine the outcry in the US media were Brazilians, say, able to take advantage of a similar situation with US currency when they’re in NYC. Or, is this just another of those things that couldn’t possibly ever happen........