Bolsonaro potential new president of Brazil serious implications

I don't know how to explain this further to you. Brazil is a constitutional republic. It has a powerful and independent judiciary. It has a powerful and independent bi-cameral parliament in which the new president does not hold the majority. It has a very well organized and well financed opposition that managed to gather 46% of the total votes and controls several states and major cities. it has a free press that is mostly skeptical or hostile towards him. It has an armed forces that have repeatedly and publicly sworn to uphold the CURRENT constitution no matter who wins the presidency and that are keeping him at arms length.
That is how a functioning republic is supposed to work: That even if the masses elect a raging lunatic as a president, there will be enough checks and balances in place so that he can't do much damage. So what he says and what he wants is mostly irrelevant.
Now if you cannot or simply refuse to comprehend that, all I can say is enjoy your new buggy man.

Lets agree to disagree Camberiu. All dictators can easily overturn congress and implement draconian laws. My instinct says that this will end very badly for Brazil and its neighbours.

I understand that you support this president but many do not. He offers only a extreme option for Brazils future. At the beginning there could be a honeymoon period but by the second year it will go the way of Macri and even worse.
 
"That even if the masses elect a raging lunatic as a president, there will be enough checks and balances in place so that he can't do much damage. So what he says and what he wants is mostly irrelevant. "

once again, the trump comparisons ring true.

i hope you are right camberiu, in that he is more bark than bite. i guess time will tell. these elections are showing that the right is feeling underrepresented all over the world, so this is the result.
 
"That even if the masses elect a raging lunatic as a president, there will be enough checks and balances in place so that he can't do much damage. So what he says and what he wants is mostly irrelevant. "

once again, the trump comparisons ring true.

i hope you are right camberiu, in that he is more bark than bite. i guess time will tell. these elections are showing that the right is feeling underrepresented all over the world, so this is the result.

I think it is very wishful thinking on the part of Camberiu. Looking through history there are many clear examples of leaders like Bolsonaro who take power in so called democratic countries who take absolute power. If someone is determined they can overide democracy and create hell.
 
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i hope you are right camberiu, in that he is more bark than bite. i guess time will tell. these elections are showing that the right is feeling underrepresented all over the world, so this is the result.

I am not worried about him rounding up homosexuals and killing them. To think that he will do that is just silly. What I am worried about is that he has no clue on how to address the serious structural problems that the country faces. There are massive budget shortfalls that need to be addressed. pension reforms, tax reforms and labor reforms must be made. That requires the building of consensus and alliances, which he is not good at.
He got a total of 57 million votes. Votes for Haddad + absentees + blank votes were 89 million. He is in a very weak political position and has very little time to drag the country out of a very deep recession. In this scenario, identity politics can't take you very far.
His situation is a lot more difficult and complicated than anything Trump has ever faced. And unlike Trump, he is not charismatic at all.
 
And the number of votes never was an impediment to install a dictator.
Adolf Hitler won only 30+ percent of votes , and it was enough to destroy the weak Weimar German republic.So it did Mussolini.
But Brazil has stronger institutions than Argentina, A Brazilian Cristina would have never be possible
 
I wonder if certain groups from Brazil are going to start to move to Argentina ? IE: I am given the impression (correct?) that times could be very
very rough for the LGBTQ community in Brazil.
 
Is this scenario technically possible? Sure. Is it likely. I find the odds of that extremely slim.
"All his generals" are like a handful of them, all infantry. One of the misunderstandings around Bolsonaro is that people think most of he top brass supports him, which is not the case at all. He is a grunt. An infantry captain who started his career as a grunt. He is popular with infantry conscripts and infantry NCOs. But the elite of the Brazilian Army, the professional divisions such as Electronic Warfare, Intelligence, Armored/Mechanized, Engineering, Air Cavalry, etc... despises him, as they view him as a brute and simpleton. His popularity is even lower with the Airforce and the Navy (the most prestigious branch of the Brazilian military). Unlike say, Argentina, the practices of torture, oppression, assassination, where always controversial within the Brazilian military. As much so that in the early 70s, the army hardliners were removed from power by the army moderates, exactly because they could not stomach the abuse, the tortures and the assassinations. All political prisoners and guerrillas were freed and given full amnesty (Dilma and my own father among them), and the gradual process of returning to a normal constitutional democracy was defined as goal by the army rulers.
So thugs like Bolsonaro have very little support among the top brass, which today is made up mostly by moderates. Even General Geisel, who ruled Brazil from 1974 until 1979, who lead the process of return to a normal democracy and is considered within the army as the model of what a Brazilian general should be, referred to Bolsonaro on his memoir as a "piece of shit" and that is a good reflection of how he is viewed across the board. So it is not like he has lots of generals to pick from.
Also, even if he did, most appointees need to be approved by Congress. So does the increased number of judges. Does Bolsonaro has the majority of Congress? No, he does not.
It is important to remember that both Lula and Dilma tried the same approach of populating the executive and supreme court with their puppets, and even with a much broader Congressional base than Bolsonaro has today, they failed. And to add on top of that, Bolsonaro has been in congress as a representative for 30 years and has not been able to get a single one of his bills passed. Not one, in 30 years. He was also unable to get a single mainstream politician or political figure to agree to be his vice-president. Even the most rabid anti-PT figures, like Janaina Pascual, refused to share the ticket with him. So he had to rely on an obscure pariah retired infantry general to be his vice-president, after his 7 previous choices rejected his invitation. That speaks volumes about this lacking ability to form alliances and coalitions. Hitler, Mussolini and even Chavez where skilled politicians who were able to build coalitions and bring different groups together. Bolsonaro has never been able to display such ability, even on this election, where he ran as an outsider without any broad political coalition behind him.

So unless he is able to completely transform himself, I don't see him accomplishing this "soft coup" that you speak of.

Hey camberiu,

Thanks for the interesting information. I wasn't saying that the scenario is very likely. I was merely pointing out that Bolsonaro is on record as aiming for this exact situation, and that we've seen very similar things occur historically. I was also pointing out a global political trend towards fachist methodologies. Or rather, to be more nuanced, we are seeing a move away from corrupt entrenched establishment politics towards a populist/charismatic alternative, the far right has taken over this space in many countries , though other alternatives are far better suited and possible.

I very much hope that you are right and that we don't slide into a new historical period of populist fachist methodologies and related opresión, whether in Brazil, the USA, Europe, or anywhere else.

I do however believe that downplaying these worrying possibilities and not taking them seriously is a path of folly. As you say, fear mongering that a fachista authoritarian regime is inevitable, or very likely, is also hyperbole and dangerous. But let's take the possibilities a little more seriously...

Cheers!
 
Bolsonaro..!! Presidente.

Correa is down, Dilma is down, Cristina is down , Bachelet is down , Kuchynsky is gone.... Evo is next?? Is this the end of the Populist Governments in South America..??
 
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