Campaign Watch

[PhilipDT]

Oh and I'll just get this out of the way.


MACRI 2015

 

[Gringoboy]

Some abiding images remain from last night.
Scioli's face and body language on that stage, for one.
He looked like he'd been dragged on stage like a cardboard cut-out.
Dejection, embarrassment and defeat written all over his face.
If he'd had a shovel handy, he'd have started digging.
And where was Willie Brown in that line up of all the usual suspects?
Macri dancing? You could dine out on that for years.

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

I laughed when Macri's daughter (I assume) tossed that stupid hat off her head ! ...he ran so quickly over to his daughter to grab her, it was like Monty Burns running over to grab the nearest soft and cuddly human to make himself look like the rest of us!

For the record, I like some aspects of Macri's running of the city, the big ticket items have been well executed but some concerns remain such as the Cabildo boulevard fiasco and his potentially socially conservative policies.

Despite the dodgy dancing, he has a mountain to climb to get near the pink house. He will need to "turn" a long list of celebrities and electable faces out in the provinces.

Massa is more of the same for me, re-branded, new PR, but I would fear more of the same self suffocating peronismo with an emphasis on locking up those who break the social contract. For all FpV's economic illiteracy I do believe that some of them actually believe in social inclusion, however it has been poorly executed and has arguably had a counter productive effect.

Anyway, the results can be spun various ways.

1.Government maintains majority and control of the houses. Bad news for the 70% of the country who didn't vote for them! Boudou looked like a game show host whilst Scioli looked like he was ready to hang up his boots.

2. UNEN-UCR-others alliance - We are the new alternative on a national scale! As a block they polled second, however for me it is a coalition that won't hold together in a presidential race, however it will eat into the FpV vote so they are useful and I am grateful for them. I believe the FpV will attack them strongly. They will look at this as an erosion of their traditional base and a potential way back in.

3. Massa/FR - KIngs of the province, poling 3rd nationally in the "good peronismo" block. Hard to see how the govt can stop this freight train in the province, can they strike up enough allies to take a shot at the presidency or are they happy to be kingmakers? Will Massa sit back and let the hopefuls come to him with offers of political gold and silver? Watch this space...

4. PRO - He has come out, with his presidential ambitions laid bare he needed a good city showing, and he got it. Overshadowed by the Massa express but Bergman and Michetti's vote held and more, they grew after their disappointing PASO vote. Back in the game but with an enormous amount of deal making and leveraging of celebrity friends to make a dent nationally. Will be interesting to watch, can he find common ground with the peronist Massa? Making all the right sounds to break from the past and form a modern centre right internationally focused party. Michetti made reference to Buenos Aires ambitions to be a world leading city. Ambition is critical I suppose....mountains to climb!

5. The rest -- good night for the fringe left wing parties, the harder left of the FpV vote might find a home in these parties in 2015.

2015 - Too early to call but deal making will as ever be critical, I think there will be no clear leader on a national scale and we'll be looking at a coalition, but for who? UNEN-UCR-Others+Massa? Macri+Massa? Is Macri planning a solo run and does he really believe he can do it? FpV will have to push hard to win back the left and centre of their voting spectrum who appear to have jumped ship for any combination of UNEN, Massa and the fringe left parties.

These are my impressions based on being too tired to really have a detailed look at the figures. Stayed up too late to have a proper stab at the figures!

 

[Gringoboy]

A little sleepy myself, but I'll leave you with his for the time being:

'Me quiero ir...............'

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

ambito.com probably has the simplest view of the lower house after the elections. FpV's have a majority still and free hand to implement laws. Pro & FR have started bickering already. If I was the govt I would be pleased to see these two starting to become opponents.

Be careful how many fronts you open!

 

[surfing]

[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]Massa/FR - KIngs of the province, poling 3rd nationally in the "good peronismo" block. [/background]

[background=rgb(252, 252, 252)]That's like hearing, "you have inoperable brain cancer, but don't worry it's the 'good' cancer"[/background]

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

[background=rgb(252,252,252)]Massa/FR - KIngs of the province, poling 3rd nationally in the "good peronismo" block. [/background]

[background=rgb(252,252,252)]"Good peronismo"? That's like hearing, "you have inoperable brain cancer, but don't worry it's the 'good' cancer"[/background]

Right, that's what la nacion are (I assume) semi-sarcastically referring to them as.

ps...my eyes, my poor eyes.

 

[John.St]

What? the birdshit scam in the K-bunker? Who did it? B)

 

[French jurist]

Macri dancing 2 months ago

Macri dancing 2 years ago (for that one, check out the little "butt shake" at 0:25 :lol:

Is the guy improving?

 

[French jurist]

Wondering if there's any analysis showing the percentages of votes for each party per age range.
Especifically, I'd like to see the percentages for the 16/18 years old age range (likely much higher for the FPV but I wonder the precises figures).

Anyone?