This is the calm before the real storm no matter who takes power. Macri made the mistake of thinking a few cosmetic reforms and some pro business talk would bring in dollars. Initially investors had hope, and then later fled as they saw nothing significant was going to change. Unfortunately he didn't have the courage to push real structural reforms in the current economic model that would give investors reasons to move capital to Argentina.
FF will most likely implement stronger currency controls, price controls, higher export taxes - all things that will temporarily give Argentina some more life - but will just band aid the current problems and further kill economic activity. Then they will turn to China for funding and economic projects. 5G networks, renovation of ports and highways. They will include 50 year contracts that will siphon money off of Argentina for decades to come.
At end of 2020 the world economy will go through a major correction. Argentina will be set on fire. China, the US, Europe and rich Argentines will strip it of it assets on the cheap. The most vulnerable will be devastated. FF and Macri will blame each other. All the political class will be to blame.
The lithium boom will be a small bright spot in the Argentine economy. Bringing wealth to the northwestern part of Argentina. Salta Governor Juan Manuel Urtubey will take credit and be elected president in 2023 as the economy begins to recover, blaming both sides for the crisis, while claiming to be different. Nothing will change. The cycle will start again.
www.forbes.com
