CFK to start limping soon?

[nicoenarg]

Seeing how Argentina shot itself in the foot by nationalizing YPF (discussed here on this forum) is becoming clearer with the steps that the EU as a whole and Spain are taking against Argentina.

EU Parliament is already calling for trade sanctions against Argentina:

http://buenosairesherald.com/articl...t-calls-for-trade-sanctions-against-argentina

My prediction is that it is going to get much worse for Argentina with further isolation and further trade sanctions against it.

I don't think Trade sanctions of any kind are a direct result of nationalization of YPF. I think this was probably cooking for a while now with Argentina's own trade restrictions.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-from-repsol/2012/04/20/gIQAMgzfVT_story.html

What CFK tried to reverse with trade restrictions, and nationalizations was the trade deficit (among other things) and now she will find herself completely screwed over in that respect because lesser Argentine exports means more trade deficit. No brains here, none whatsoever.

Silverlining here for CFK is that she still has exactly three friends in the world: Chavez, Raul, and Ahmedinejad!

 

[garygrunson]

Is the trade between Argentina and EU that big? I really don't know. I know that the trade between Asia and other South American countries are huge. While I am sure it is still not good for Argentina.

 

[YanquiGallego]

Spain is the number 1 investing country in Argentina, followed by the US. Basically you are chopping off the hands that feed you.

As a Spanish-American, I feel that if the 51 percent really were to go, as Cristina boasts about it on her Twitter, for ¨el pueblo Argentino¨ the Argentines, I wouldnt have minded this hostile action so much, however, we all know that this 51 percent means Cristina will probably just be able to add a few Hermes and Louis Vuitton bags to the collection, another gold and diamond Rolex or two, and mr Budou will be able to pay off the Ferrari and Harley with much more ease.

 

[nicoenarg]

Is the trade between Argentina and EU that big? I really don't know. I know that the trade between Asia and other South American countries is huge. While I am sure it is still not good for Argentina.

The EU as a whole is Argentina's second biggest trading partner (if I remember correctly).

EDIT: And Argentina currently holds a trade surplus over the EU.

 

[gusgutier]

Spain is the number 1 investing country in Argentina, followed by the US. Basically you are chopping off the hands that feed you.

You´re confused, it is the other way. YPF was one third of Reapsol profits, that´s to say , now is less feeded. Then you can check profits in Argentina for BBVA, Santander, Telefonica, Movistar, etec. They don´t bring money here, they took it out.
Where do you get the concept that private companies feed people ? Is it not its essence to "feed" themselves as much as they can ?
Regarding to other post, UE is the thrid Argentina client.

 

[JHB1216]

As a Spanish-American, I feel that if the 51 percent really were to go, as Cristina boasts about it on her Twitter, for ¨el pueblo Argentino¨ the Argentines, I wouldnt have minded this hostile action so much, however, we all know that this 51 percent means Cristina will probably just be able to add a few Hermes and Louis Vuitton bags to the collection

It is amusing to me that the people as a whole do not trust anyone yet they are taking the word of these politicians that are habitual liars and thieves that they are doing the right thing for the people.

 

[nicoenarg]

You´re confused, it is the other way. YPF was one third of Reapsol profits, that´s to say , now is less feeded. Then you can check profits in Argentina for BBVA, Santander, Telefonica, Movistar, etec. They don´t bring money here, they took it out.
Where do you get the concept that private companies feed people ? Is it not its essence to "feed" themselves as much as they can ?
Regarding to other post, UE is the thrid Argentina client.

I think you're confused about what YanquiGallego meant when he said "chopping off the hands that feed you". Its simply an expression that means that Argentina is cutting off its cash supply.

As for your statement that private companies don't feed people because they take out their profits (just because you stated that kind of sounds like you don't know how private enterprise, or government enterprise for that matter, works). You do know that foreign companies, even if they take out profits, hire local population, in turn, feeding them? Or do you think that they bring both money and labor from the EU here and then take them all back with them?

As for EU being the third trading partner, well, they are still pretty important (although I have seen it both ways, EU being second ahead of China, or EU being third after China).

 

[gusgutier]

I think you're confused about what YanquiGallego meant when he said "chopping off the hands that feed you". Its simply an expression that means that Argentina is cutting off its cash supply.

Don´t you get that cash supply goes on the other way ? Example : YPF won in 12 years ar $ 40.000.000.000, then send out of the country ( 25% of this amount to Spain) ar $ 45.000.000.000. May be you can ask about ar$ 5.000.000.000 difference. Well , it´s that Repsol sold this amount of company¨s financial assets, so the co is smaller than a time before.

You do know that foreign companies, even if they take out profits, hire local population, in turn, feeding them?

Do you have a puppet idea about working ? When you work for a company, they don´t feed you like a pet, but a set a contract selling them good or services. The rule of capitalism is that if you or yhe con has amor profiatble supplier, you or the other breaks the contract. Ther is no master/ slave relationship.

As for EU being the third trading partner, well, they are still pretty important (although I have seen it both ways, EU being second ahead of China, or EU being third after China).

Relevant anyway.

P.S : Quote went wrong, and my words are taken like those of Nico. Sorrry, I hope you can distinguish them.

 

[nicoenarg]

Yeah I see the messed up quote now.

You said:

"Don´t you get that cash supply goes on the other way ? Example : YPF won in 12 years ar $ 40.000.000.000, then send out of the country ( 25% of this amount to Spain) ar $ 45.000.000.000. May be you can ask about ar$ 5.000.000.000 difference. Well , it´s that Repsol sold this amount of company¨s financial assets, so the co is smaller than a time before."

I don't know about the numbers you posted so I am not going to comment on them. However, I fail to understand what you're getting at. Yes, everyone knows that if you own something, and that something makes money resulting in profits, it is not only in your interests to take that profit but instead is your RIGHT to take it.

I will give you a pretty simple example, you buy a house, you have the RIGHT to live in it. If I come along and tell you, "yo! you imperialist! Just because you bought the house doesn't mean you get to take advantage of it! I am going to tell you to move out and let me live in it since I have no other shelter to go to." I really want you to tell me honestly, would you move out and let me live there? (And if you are willing to do that, please PM me your address and we'll arrange for a lawyer to get the deal signed legally.)

Point being that Repsol bought YPF fair and square (it does not matter to me what your opinion is or was of Menem, YPF was sold by Argentina, and was bought by Repsol).

So your whole example of "Oh my LORD, they are taking away profits!" is irrelevant. Repsol did not invest in Argentina as a humanitarian gesture. This is business and the awesome reality of business is that you put in hard work (whether physical or mental) and you get to reap the rewards.

You said:

"Do you have a puppet idea about working ? When you work for a company, they don´t feed you like a pet, but a set a contract selling them good or services. The rule of capitalism is that if you or yhe con has amor profiatble supplier, you or the other breaks the contract. Ther is no master/ slave relationship."

Right. I don't know where you got the master/slave relationship and I have no idea where you got the "pet" relationship from my post above. However, in any business dealing, when two parties come together, they do so keeping their own interests in mind. This is a known fact and hence all further contracts are designed based on that fact. So, when the Argentine government sold YPF, they were looking out for themselves (or the people, whatever you want to believe, it doesn't matter). When Repsol bought YPF, they were looking out for their own interests (this includes the shareholders, some of which, by the way, were/are Argentine).

Keeping the above in mind, when the Argentine government tries to get investment from outside, they are looking out for their own interests. They want to be reelected. They want people to have jobs. They (ideally) want reduced crime. They (ideally) want people to have education, etc. When a foreign company decides to invest in Argentina, they are looking out for themselves. They want profits, pure and simple. However, a direct result of investment in Argentina by a foreign company is inflow of capital AND people getting jobs.

Now, getting to the point, when anyone goes to a company to get a job. They are looking out for themselves just like the company who hires that individual is looking out for themselves. That's the way it is. So, I hope its clear what I am talking about now and I REALLY hope you don't jump to some other alien conclusion.

Another thing to note here is that even government run organizations HAVE to make profit to survive or rather, thrive. The GOAL of a government run company should NOT be to make profit (or it can be, depending on how they present it), however, to be able to meet their other goals (in case of YPF, exploration and increased output of oil) they need profits.

Also, I have said this in another post, a hostile takeover is different than a negotiated takeover. Its probably in the water that the politicians drink here but they seem incapable of doing anything in an honorable manner. Yet they expect others to treat them with the utmost respect that at times amounts to worship.

PS: I am really interested to know what the Argentine official/authoritative book on Economics is. I have a feeling it might be a little off!

 

[gusgutier]

Yeah I see the messed up quote now.

You said:





I will give you a pretty simple example, you buy a house, you have the RIGHT to live in it. If I come along and tell you, "yo! you imperialist! Just because you bought the house doesn't mean you get to take advantage of it! I am going to tell you to move out and let me live in it since I have no other shelter to go to." I really want you to tell me honestly, would you move out and let me live there? (And if you are willing to do that, please PM me your address and we'll arrange for a lawyer to get the deal signed legally.)
You take it from ideological perspective, I´m talking about business and nothing about imperialism.

You said :

So your whole example of "Oh my LORD, they are taking away profits!" is irrelevant. Repsol did not invest in Argentina as a humanitarian gesture. This is business and the awesome reality of business is that you put in hard work (whether physical or mental) and you get to reap the rewards.

That´s right, so If Government spends us$ 9.000.000.000 in fuel imports, and losses us$ 4.000.000.000 (exporting 5.000 m in energy), may be it´ll look for a better scenery.

You said :

Right. I don't know where you got the master/slave relationship and I have no idea where you got the "pet" relationship from my post above. However, in any business dealing, when two parties come together, they do so keeping their own interests in mind. This is a known fact and hence all further contracts are designed based on that fact. So, when the Argentine government sold YPF, they were looking out for themselves (or the people, whatever you want to believe, it doesn't matter). When Repsol bought YPF, they were looking out for their own interests (this includes the shareholders, some of which, by the way, were/are Argentine).

I brought the master/ slave relationship regarding to " don´t chop the hand that feeds you " tryng to say that in no way is needed to do what an employer or investor wants you to do. You don´t work only not to make angry to others.

Keeping the above in mind, when the Argentine government tries to get investment from outside, they are looking out for their own interests. They want to be reelected. They want people to have jobs. They (ideally) want reduced crime. They (ideally) want people to have education, etc. When a foreign company decides to invest in Argentina, they are looking out for themselves. They want profits, pure and simple. However, a direct result of investment in Argentina by a foreign company is inflow of capital AND people getting jobs.

Agree.

Now, getting to the point, when anyone goes to a company to get a job. They are looking out for themselves just like the company who hires that individual is looking out for themselves. That's the way it is. So, I hope its clear what I am talking about now and I REALLY hope you don't jump to some other alien conclusion.

agree

Another thing to note here is that even government run organizations HAVE to make profit to survive or rather, thrive. The GOAL of a government run company should NOT be to make profit (or it can be, depending on how they present it), however, to be able to meet their other goals (in case of YPF, exploration and increased output of oil) they need profits.

Ok. Not knowing if this YPF issue will run well, at present times, if this year profits (51 %) goes to argentine state,, they are us$ 600 M more in the cash register. I addition, if production cuts some fuel imports (last 2 years YPF refined more premium gasoline and aerial fuel than fuel needed for agricultural production, transport and running thermical electrical generation, there was where govt. had to import) it will be profitable.
E.U. potential sanctions must be a thing to be higher that only the short term benefit.
Related to investments, capital is coward but also, maybe mainly, greedy.
Since a month ago, when provinces take off exploiting zones from YPF, at least 20 oil companies were knocking at Governor´s doors lookink for a share of what Repsol was loosing.

You said :
Also, I have said this in another post, a hostile takeover is different than a negotiated takeover. Its probably in the water that the politicians drink here but they seem incapable of doing anything in an honorable manner. Yet they expect others to treat them with the utmost respect that at times amounts to worship.

You have in mind , I think, only a private co. perspective. Obviously, Govt. is not a private actor and if it has the constitutional resourse to achieve goals in a more (in his own consideration) profitable or efficient way, why not ? Oh, I know. For not make angry ghost and potential investors. (I referred to this point a paragraph before)

You said :
PS: I am really interested to know what the Argentine official/authoritative book on Economics is. I have a feeling it might be a little off!

I think it doesn´t exists, but may be you know that Axel Kicillof doctoral thesis was on Keynes. I´ve heard it is online, but not sure.

P.S.: Once and again I don´t get the quoting system.