Corona Virus May Hit Argentina Hard

[jantango]

Coronavirus | Buenos Aires Ciudad - Gobierno de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires

Es una enfermedad causada por un virus que se transmite a través de las gotas de estornudos y tos, y del contacto con manos a ojos, boca y nariz.

www.buenosaires.gob.ar

 

[steveinbsas]

News flash!! First case of corona confirmed in Argentina.. Just now.

Primer caso de coronavirus en la Argentina: trasladaron al paciente a otra clínica

Primer caso de coronavirus en la Argentina: trasladaron al paciente a otra clínica

www.lanacion.com.ar

Does this make Recoleta the "epicenter" for the coronavirus in Argentina?

 

[Iznogud]

Does this make Recoleta the "epicenter" for the coronavirus in Argentina?

Iz

 

[Joglide]

I can identified with Ries growing up in part in upstate NY the freezer was always full of meat and fish. Not the kind you buy in the store either the kind you get with guns, bows and poles. Always canned stuff from the garden too.

I am however very glad at this point I am prepped my wife in her poverty thinking was firmly against it. And always saying this will not come here. Well it is here.

Was an incredible experience when I was in Farmacia last week buying all kinds of antibiotics and more even a nebulizer and breathing meds. Girls ask me are you or is someone sick? I said no the virus is coming and I am getting ready. They just got this so shocked look on their faces with jaws on the floor.

Weeks ago the wife all bug eyed as we are overloading on groceries, clean supplies, disinfectants and more while she is just fuming that is not coming here. Well it is here.

I did not stop there my parents sold there place and moved in with my brother some time ago. I had enough to last them a year dropped on them in the last months from Amazon. We just put them in quarantine in the lower part of his house. Nice part is they can walk out the door for a walk in the park etc from there.

If I find myself standing in the middle of a night mare with my wife and me well as a result of being prepared it will not be fun but I can look at it and say I did what I thought was best. Yet I really do hope that everyone is laughing their asses off at me at an asado next year and calling me a fool for prepping nothing would give me more pleasure than all of this prepping coming to nothing.

As this unfolds I wish all of us the best believe me.

Respect the need for sensible caution and concern but from your post and that of Perry I sense the fear of a global catastrophe unprecedented in modern times. This paints a doomsday scenario so what am I missing here? As I read the media, the virus has killed a relatively tiny number of mostly elderly frail people and those with underlying medical conditions. As I understand it, there is no cure as yet but the number of fatalities is miniscule. The great majority of people seem to have mild symptoms and quickly recover though possibly contagious and even those more severely affected generally recover. China seems to have effectively contained the virus by 'lockdown' and numbers are diminishing steadily. Argentina seems to be generally unaware that its public culture of intimate contacts, kissing etc on greeting, mate etc etc, makes it vulnerable to rapid contagion, but as a primarily young population even the poorer districts are unlikely to have severe fatalities.

 

[Pensador]

China has not and cannot tell the truth that is impossible for them that means we still really have little information to work with except that this virus spreads so fast that it virtually knocked air pollution and normal road traffic in a country of 1 billion down by over 50%. End of the world not yet a lot pain very possible. So worst case scenario I know I have done all I can do.

 

[perry]

Respect the need for sensible caution and concern but from your post and that of Perry I sense the fear of a global catastrophe unprecedented in modern times. This paints a doomsday scenario so what am I missing here? As I read the media, the virus has killed a relatively tiny number of mostly elderly frail people and those with underlying medical conditions. As I understand it, there is no cure as yet but the number of fatalities is miniscule. The great majority of people seem to have mild symptoms and quickly recover though possibly contagious and even those more severely affected generally recover. China seems to have effectively contained the virus by 'lockdown' and numbers are diminishing steadily. Argentina seems to be generally unaware that its public culture of intimate contacts, kissing etc on greeting, mate etc etc, makes it vulnerable to rapid contagion, but as a primarily young population even the poorer districts are unlikely to have severe fatalities.

I do not know where some people here are getting their information but a death rate of 3.4% for the general population and for men 75 and over a death rate of 15 % is not mild symptons -

Please read the link below .in regards to your miniscule statement

WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought

World health officials say the death rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.

www.cnbc.com

In Italy in just one week they have close to 100 deaths and this will certainly grow as most of the population gets infected.

In all my life I have never seen whole cities quarantined or the controls put in place to restrict movement for a simple flu that at best has a death rate of less than 0.3% -. This is over 10 times more dangerous and more contagious as proven by the Diamond princess etc etc .

Pensador has been very helpful on this thread and shown common sense from the beginning . Its human nature to want to help your family , friends, and contacts . Unfortunately some on this forum have downplayed this issue and worse labeled us as doom abd gloomers . This shows a inmature approach and a unwillingness to accept that bad things happen and preparation is fundamental as to give one a fighting chance of surviving this period .

This event will not blow over soon and certainly has not run its course in China . Wuhan and the province of Hubei is still completely locked down . There has been no loosening of the quarantine there . Now there are new quarantines in South Korea and North Italy and very soon in the USA and other European countries .

China is in economic ruins because of this virus and the situation is by no means under control . Yes there are less cases being reported for the simple reason that there are less medical workers due to the majority getting sick from the virus and no completely honest statistics . Many experts have said that the infection and death rate are many times higher than be stated -
Figures have shown that doctors and nurses have been coming infected at very high levels at close to 30% .

Nearly 3,400 Chinese healthcare workers have gotten the coronavirus, and 13 have died

Medical workers fighting the new coronavirus in China face resource shortages and a high risk of infection.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[dilmah]

but the number of fatalities is miniscule

it's minuscule exactly because the disease is still contained to a few regions.

 

[Pensador]

The potential scope of impact from this now global health crisis is a big unknown except for what we have already seen. What have we seen so far is the only information we can make sensible analysis with and take action based on our understanding. Not sure which it the CDC or the WHO but a short time ago the advice was prepare like it will be here tomorrow.

Looking at some of what we know and what has made out into social media. The major factors are health, economy and survival in a worst case scenario.

Hospitals - Overrun with a high percentage of the medical staff sick or infected as well you might need to handle things on your own
Economic - Supply chain interruptions not much food or meds around. While being more dangerous to get your hands on them as the sick are out and about trying to get the same things.
Local epidemic - Well you do not want to get infected yourself then you become a spreader which could result in the death of others. Stay inside and stay away from it. It is in my opinion our duty to try and not become infected so as not to further the spread.

Take all the potential into consideration then factor the 3rd word countries and cultures we are in.Eating and mate, ever notice everything is communal here not just mate. Go to an asado and notice everyone with eating utensils in everyone elses plates and meal dishes, or even their fingers for that matter.

Have you been to the public hospitals? I have been in a few and there is no way they can handle an epidemic and private medical while it may be decent is by no means a prepared system for a local epidemic.

Fortunately I was trained in how to work in bio hazard environments some decades ago. It is not terribly difficult to avoid something like this unless your on the front line medical response or just happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time when the out break starts.

1. Disinfection measures - Hand washing and sanitizing everything that comes in your house can work to reduce your chances of getting infected yourself and being another spreader.
2. Prepping - Having the food, cleaning and medical supplies on hand to isolate yourself and minimize not just your chances of getting infected but your chances of becoming a spreader as well.

IMHO it is our responsibility to prepare as best we can in any way we can not just to protect ourselves but the people around us by not getting sick which no one wants to be sick but also becoming a spreader which could leading to the potential death of others even if you get through it just fine.

Further as I watch locals most think I am nuts and think nothing is going to happen. I hope they are right but given the culture, poverty, medical infrastructure, and other factors. Once again IMHO this is not something to shrug off or pay little attention too. At the very least I do not want to be a spreader I will most satisfied if I achieve that. On the other hand I do not want to be dead nor do I want my wife in this world without me especially given the potential of a worst case scenario as this crisis even on its current small level at the moment continues to unfold.

Fear monger, doom and gloom not yet but prepared for it if that happens to be where this is heading.

 

[Joglide]

I do not know where some people here are getting their information but a death rate of 3.4% for the general population and for men 75 and over a death rate of 15 % is not mild symptons -

This shows a inmature approach and a unwillingness to accept that bad things happen and preparation is fundamental as to give one a fighting chance of surviving this period .

This event will not blow over soon and certainly has not run its course in China . Wuhan and the province of Hubei is still completely locked down . There has been no loosening of the quarantine there . Now there are new quarantines in South Korea and North Italy and very soon in the USA and other European countries .

China is in economic ruins because of this virus and the situation is by no means under control . Yes there are less cases being reported for the simple reason that there are less medical workers due to the majority getting sick from the virus and no completely honest statistics . Many experts have said that the infection and death rate are many times higher than be stated -
Figures have shown that doctors and nurses have been coming infected at very high levels at close to 30% .

Nearly 3,400 Chinese healthcare workers have gotten the coronavirus, and 13 have died

Medical workers fighting the new coronavirus in China face resource shortages and a high risk of infection.

www.businessinsider.com

You are right to say the problem should not be ignored and reasonable precautions taken by all but I restate that a death rate of 3.4% of those infected (not of the general population) and a reported infected group of less than millions and in specific areas should not be considered more than relatively (note relative numbers) remains miniscule by world historical terms. The great majority of those infected are according to WHO probably uncountable but very significant, and they recover most without even registering it is the virus. You mention the cruise ship: even on a highly infected cruise ship of primarily elderly people many with underlying health issues did not result in the death of hundreds even when quarantine was initially disorganised.

As for the claim that China cannot report the truth and has an economy in ruins, the World Economic Forum states:
"China is the world’s second-largest economy and leading trading nation, so economic fallout from coronavirus also threatens global growth.
Economists polled by Reuters between 7-13 February said they expected China’s economic growth to slump to 4.5% in the first quarter of 2020, down from 6% in the previous quarter – the slowest pace since the financial crisis. However, the economists were optimistic China’s economy would recover quickly if the virus could be contained."

The economic effects of the coronavirus around the world | World Economic Forum

The WHO and World Bank appear to accept the evidence that China has so far effectively contained the virus even in its epicentre.
The response of sceptics is not immature: there is a downside to over-reaction and extreme anxiety (as in the early days of HIV-AIDS virus) as there is to ignoring real risks. The most severe predictions of infection spread suggest an uncontrolled and uncontained global epidemic could lead to as many as 20% of the workforce off sick for 2-4 weeks but the large majority recovering. That would be very significant but still not catastrophic in world historical terms compared to great plagues of the past and even to post-1918 influenza epidemic.

 

[perry]

You are right to say the problem should not be ignored and reasonable precautions taken by all but I restate that a death rate of 3.4% of those infected (not of the general population) and a reported infected group of less than millions and in specific areas should not be considered more than relatively (note relative numbers) remains miniscule by world historical terms. The great majority of those infected are according to WHO probably uncountable but very significant, and they recover most without even registering it is the virus. You mention the cruise ship: even on a highly infected cruise ship of primarily elderly people many with underlying health issues did not result in the death of hundreds even when quarantine was initially disorganised.

As for the claim that China cannot report the truth and has an economy in ruins, the World Economic Forum states:
"China is the world’s second-largest economy and leading trading nation, so economic fallout from coronavirus also threatens global growth.
Economists polled by Reuters between 7-13 February said they expected China’s economic growth to slump to 4.5% in the first quarter of 2020, down from 6% in the previous quarter – the slowest pace since the financial crisis. However, the economists were optimistic China’s economy would recover quickly if the virus could be contained."

The economic effects of the coronavirus around the world | World Economic Forum

The WHO and World Bank appear to accept the evidence that China has so far effectively contained the virus even in its epicentre.
The response of sceptics is not immature: there is a downside to over-reaction and extreme anxiety (as in the early days of HIV-AIDS virus) as there is to ignoring real risks. The most severe predictions of infection spread suggest an uncontrolled and uncontained global epidemic could lead to as many as 20% of the workforce off sick for 2-4 weeks but the large majority recovering. That would be very significant but still not catastrophic in world historical terms compared to great plagues of the past and even to post-1918 influenza epidemic.

Regarding your over optimistic response on China I suggest that common sense applies. Most small and médium sides businesses are close to bankruptcy as there is no cash flow. They have at best two months left before the majority will be in liquidación. How can a economy grow 4 percent if there is absolutely no economic activity ?

Argentina as well is suffering due to not be able to export to China . This country is the motor of the world and without its participation the whole pack of cards will collapse.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com