Corona Virus May Hit Argentina Hard

[Weyland]

Yes this virus will overwhelmed the health services precisely because people panic about it when they shouldn't. mortality rate of COVID-19 is anywhere from 2 to 4 percent, and not at 50% like it was for the bubonic plague or the 100% mortality rate for septicemic plague in untreated victims. The Spanish flu had a mortality rate of about 2.5-3% also very similar to Coronavirus. Third of the world's population got infected and about 100 million people died but mostly due to extremely poor sanitation and malnutrition (blame war). In the case of coronavirus, the poorest would suffer the most (war torn countries, africa, etc) but this kind of death had already happens for other reasons, such as the war in Syria that killed so many innocent women and children and the world did not give a fuck about it. This clearly shows that COVID-19 is a middle class worry, because now it can get an old rich ass at the comfort of their home where they feel most confident in their privilege to best safety.

Now, for a bit of contrast, CDC estimates that this season, from October 1, 2019, through February 29, 2020 the less-sexy influenza has already killed 20,000 – 52,000 people just in the USA alone, in spite of the widely available vaccines. Right, so as long as there is a vaccine for the politicians in fear of incompetency, the death toll ceases to matter, for some reason. Do you really not see the absurdity of the situation?

For stats and reports please do your own homework so that i don't have to go to multiple websites now digging for this info, it's all out there.

1. You really believe the Chinese built 2 new massive hospitals in weeks because of an irrational panic? Sounds like you're the racist.

2. The common cold doesn't have a mortality rate of 2 - 4%. A Harvard epidemiology professor predicts 40 - 70% of the world population will get covid-19 over the next year. If 50% of 7.5B people get the virus that's 3.75B, 2% of that is 75 million people dead. Maybe governments should do everything in their power so that it doesn't come to that.

3. Do your homework on statistical distribution and fat tail risks.

PS I'm probably younger than you and in great health, so it's not because I'm rich and old that I'm worried about the impact on this virus. Wars and squalid poverty are horrible too, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try to lesson the impact of this virus.

 

[Pensador]

Looks like everything is shutting down everywhere. We are fortunate to have been where we were or here as this unfolded we had the most time to prepare. Perhaps all this shutting down everywhere will reduce the inbound infected enough to lesson the brunt of the blow this will deliver if the governments here take the correct actions quickly. We shall see.

www.drudgereport.com looks like something out of a movie this morning for sure.

 

[camberiu]

The 4 stages of the Coronavirus.

 

[Serendipity]

Corona virus tracker

Coronavirus Dashboard

Live coronavirus dashboard tracker. See data, maps, social media trends, and learn about prevention measures.

ncov2019.live

 

[semigoodlookin]

1. You really believe the Chinese built 2 new massive hospitals in weeks because of an irrational panic? Sounds like you're the racist.

2. The common cold doesn't have a mortality rate of 2 - 4%. A Harvard epidemiology professor predicts 40 - 70% of the world population will get covid-19 over the next year. If 50% of 7.5B people get the virus that's 3.75B, 2% of that is 75 million people dead. Maybe governments should do everything in their power so that it doesn't come to that.

3. Do your homework on statistical distribution and fat tail risks.

PS I'm probably younger than you and in great health, so it's not because I'm rich and old that I'm worried about the impact on this virus. Wars and squalid poverty are horrible too, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try to lesson the impact of this virus.

I completely agree with the point you're making, especially number 2 and 3. However, unless I am missing something number 1 lends itself to expat0tree's point about people being irrational. For example, not once in the post you quoted did he mention Chinese people and then you throw racisim out there? Even if he said the Chinese had panicked, why would that be racist? Accusations like that need to be explained rather than just casually throwing it at someone. Again, apologies if I have missed something and expat0tree has proven to be racist elsewhere in this thread.

Another, more minor point, he also never mentioned a common cold. He did talk about regular seasonal flu, which is not the same as the common cold. That said, I do believe the mortality rate he cites from the CDC for the 2019/2020 flu season is incorrect... I thought the death toll was 16,000.

 

[steveinbsas]

Another, more minor point, he also never mentioned a common cold. He did talk about regular seasonal flu, which is not the same as the common cold.

Actually, l believe he did, in post #555 of this thread, when he equated the coronavirus with the common cold.

 

[steveinbsas]

we all are going to get the virus sooner or later, sit back and take it in, the body needs to battle the flu like symptoms to become immune to it, which is not any different from the typical common colds we had all experienced. mortality rate of covid-19 is in par with common colds, a bit more infectious and a bit harder on the immunocompromised elderly but overall the same.

The quote above is from post #555.

 

[Pensador]

Uruguay 29 new cases this morning closing boarders no Argentinian entry except cargo. If URU really clams down there is still a chance they need to quarantine every citizen for a 8 weeks asap. That would allow the a symptomatic spreader to stop spreading and manifest and then the next group they infected to manifest. Which could in turn lighten the load on the medical system as well.

The boarder run is now a no go for permatourists who would ever have imagined the perma run would get shut down like this. Certainly not me.

 

[London2Baires]

This was just publised.

For those who are interested it's an expert analysis of the data and trends looking at how different types of social isolation policy relate to potential health system over capacity.

It's both grim and sobering reading, about 20 pages but well worth it.

Cheers!

 

[Weyland]

I completely agree with the point you're making, especially number 2 and 3. However, unless I am missing something number 1 lends itself to expat0tree's point about people being irrational. For example, not once in the post you quoted did he mention Chinese people and then you throw racisim out there? Even if he said the Chinese had panicked, why would that be racist? Accusations like that need to be explained rather than just casually throwing it at someone. Again, apologies if I have missed something and expat0tree has proven to be racist elsewhere in this thread.

Another, more minor point, he also never mentioned a common cold. He did talk about regular seasonal flu, which is not the same as the common cold. That said, I do believe the mortality rate he cites from the CDC for the 2019/2020 flu season is incorrect... I thought the death toll was 16,000.

Expat claimed there were some racial elements for people being concerned about this virus.

I probably shouldn't have said that, I'm sure expat tree is perfectly nice person. I just think it's irresponsible for people to go around claiming that this is nothing more than a cold or flu when death rate is much higher for coronavirus.