Could Milei win in the first round?

[Redpossum]

¿Puede Javier Milei ganar las elecciones en primera vuelta? El veredicto de los encuestadores

La posibilidad de que Javier Milei gane en primera vuelta, sin ballotage, no fue descartada por los encuestadores consultados por <b>Página/12</b>, aunque la mayoría lo ve muy improbable.<h3><ul><li><b><a href="https://www.pagina12.com.ar/584494-sergio...

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Pagina12 talks to the various pollsters

 

[Redpossum]

And there's more on the same subject in this story -

Qué dicen las encuestas: Sergio Massa y Javier Milei, los mejor posicionados para entrar al ballottage | Fotografía de la carrera electoral, a siete semanas de las generales

Las encuestas arrojan que Patricia Bullrich no logra retener los votos que obtuvo Horacio Rodríguez Larreta en las PASO. El crecimiento del líder de La Libertad Avanza y las chances del ministro de Economía. Muchos interrogantes abiertos.

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[Don Alberto]

I doubt it.

He can win in the first round only if Patricia Bullrich and Rodríguez Larreta support him.

According to the preliminary data Milei had received 30.04%, but after the final vote count Milei had received only 29.86 % of the votes against JxC 28.27% (Bullrich + Rodríguez), and Massa + Grabois 27.28%.

IMO Milei is going to win the run-off.

 

[Rich One]

Many Argentino Acquaintances wish Milei would win on the first round by KO.

 

[Redpossum]

Many Argentino Acquaintances wish Milei would win on the first round by KO.

I rode with a taxi driver on Friday who was talking mad trash about Milei, and said he was going to vote for Massa, because he was the least bad of a poor lot. His major beef with Milei was actually a lack of experience. He said that Milei has never had a real job, has no track record, has no qualifications, and this taxista simply wasn't willing to hand the reins of government to "un novato" (amateur or beginner).

He wasn't enthusiastic about Massa, but he was very positive about voting for Massa.

This was a rarity; the vast majority of taxistas I have spoken with have been firmly anti-K, as are most small business people with whom I have spoken.

 

[Quilombo]

I'm a betting man, and I put the odds of anyone winning 1st round at under 1%.

I also think the only instance in which Milei has any chance of losing is a ballotage between him and Bullrich. If she managed to get even a small percentage of the Peronist vote I think she could pull it off as most Peronists will simply stay home or vote en blanco, but we also don't know what Milei's ceiling is yet, so who knows.

 

[Alfred_Arnold]

I'm a betting man, and I put the odds of anyone winning 1st round at under 1%.

I also think the only instance in which Milei has any chance of losing is a ballotage between him and Bullrich. If she managed to get even a small percentage of the Peronist vote I think she could pull it off as most Peronists will simply stay home or vote en blanco, but we also don't know what Milei's ceiling is yet, so who knows.

I agree here...but I'll wager a guess just for fun and conversation:

1st round:
PB high teens
SM high 30s
JM low 40s
Decent amount in blanco or impugnado

2nd round
SM higher 30s/very low 40s
JM high 50s/low 60s
Decent amount in blanco or impugnado

 

[Redpossum]

I agree here...but I'll wager a guess just for fun and conversation:

1st round:
PB high teens
SM high 30s
JM low 40s
Decent amount in blanco or impugnado

2nd round
SM higher 30s/very low 40s
JM high 50s/low 60s
Decent amount in blanco or impugnado

Ah, you never know. Perhaps Myriam Bregman will finish the 1st round ahead of Bullrich. It would be amusing if people voted for a Communist who has zero chance of winning, instead of en blanco or such. If nothing else, it would infuriate dear Patricia beyond words, and that has some amusement value, (especially if she had a public meltdown).

You know Larreta would get a laugh out of seeing her humiliated.

 

[FrankPintor]

Ah, you never know. Perhaps Myriam Bregman will finish the 1st round ahead of Bullrich. It would be amusing if people voted for a Communist who has zero chance of winning, instead of en blanco or such. If nothing else, it would infuriate dear Patricia beyond words, and that has some amusement value, (especially if she had a public meltdown).

You know Larreta would get a laugh out of seeing her humiliated.

Seeing Larrata washed up is already amusement enough though, imagine going from lunches with Bill and designing your own vaccination and digital nomad campaigns to being a mere ex-mayor of a medium-sized city.

(I wouldn't be so pissed at him if my car hadn't been towed a few times before his little earner was finally stopped).

 

[Redpossum]

Seeing Larrata washed up is already amusement enough though, imagine going from lunches with Bill and designing your own vaccination and digital nomad campaigns to being a mere ex-mayor of a medium-sized city.

(I wouldn't be so pissed at him if my car hadn't been towed a few times before his little earner was finally stopped).

My annoyance with Larreta is the thing he's done/doing to the streets here in Retiro. They've had Paraguay east of 9 de Julio torn up for 6 months now. The one block they finally finished, between Esmeralda and Maipú, now has some green areas, and maybe 5 or 6 parking places, but it's also now only one lane wide, whereas before it was two lanes.

But the whole thing has been a terrible boondoggle. At one point early on, they tore it up, then resurfaced it, and then tore it up again. The block between Suipacha and Esmeralda, (just west of the one I mentioned above), is still closed to through traffic. At one point, it was even closed to pedestrians for a few days. The whole business just reeks of graft and corruption, and reminds me of Macri's time as Jefe de Gobierno, when he threw all those construction jobs to his buddy Nicky Caputo's companies.