Could Milei win in the first round?

[wrangler]

One can venture with a certain degree of Certainty that Milei will be in the Ballotage...? Please argue the opposite venue ?

Ballotage? hmmm, maybe, he will likely lose it, should it come to that.

 

[Reply Guy]

I am not certain Milei will pull this off. My gut tells me he can't. He barely edged out a win in 'las paso' and only 63% voted. I am more inclined to think that the "no shows" will NOT vote for him. I am thinking Massa pulls this thing out in October.

Bold prediction, not one many are making

 

[Pierre Smith]

Yeah, the headline on this article is dumb, but the content is very edifying:

It was a telling moment and speaks to the air of invincibility that hangs over Milei . . .

According to conversations with more than a dozen officials and candidate advisers, the political old guard is still bewildered by his rise and somewhat resigned to defeat. Longtime congresswoman Margarita Stolbizer, who backs Bullrich, admits that the Milei phenomenon keeps growing.

Milei keeps dominating the public conversation . . .

The ruling Peronist party and the probusiness Juntos por el Cambio alliance have been used to alternating power for years as Argentina’s two main coalitions. At party headquarters, officials from both sides privately acknowledge that they are struggling to reset their strategies.

But pollsters and insiders doubt either camp can get their act together to stop him. “A month has passed and you see little dynamism and a lot of difficulties in the two main coalitions,” said Alejandro Catterberg, director of polling firm Poliarquia.

If this stuff is even half-true, it's a very enviable position that Milei is in.

One can imagine that it's a Trump style shock win that also gives him at least a chance at controlling the congress.

 

[antipodean]

Looking at the VP debate last night it, and the 500.000+ audience "votes" as to who performed best, was apparent that Millei-Villaruel are the only ones with a message most people want to listen to. This trend is not slowing down and I have the impression that more people are jumping aboard in hope of a dramatic change as they see it gain momentum. I see it as a possibility they take it on the first round.

Villaruel (52% of audience votes) ultimately she said little of substance nor explained anything logically (other than the gradual step by step approach for removing the social plans they would implement), but she knew how to put on a show and could defend herself well against cheap shots from Rossi about being a baby-steaing friend of Videla et al. Show time.
Rossi (16% of audience votes) came across as a rambling old mobster of a career-politician without any actual beliefs or policies, typical of an old-school political movement in its death throws. Pathetic.
Petri (26% of audience votes) was comparatively smooth talking and generally had logical and well rounded arguments. Boring.
Randazzo and Del Caño (6% of audience votes between them) both actually had the most intelligent things to say and were the most interested in debating specific policies with arguments backed by specific examples grounded in reality. Why bother.

 

[Redpossum]

Rossi (16% of audience votes) came across as a rambling old mobster of a career-politician without any actual beliefs or policies, typical of an old-school political movement in its death throws. Pathetic.

death throe - Wiktionary, the free dictionary

en.wiktionary.org

 

[wrangler]

Yeah, the headline on this article is dumb, but the content is very edifying:





If this stuff is even half-true, it's a very enviable position that Milei is in.

One can imagine that it's a Trump style shock win that also gives him at least a chance at controlling the congress.

BIG IF, He won't be controlling congress, or the gremios, or the sindicatos. They will chew him up, and spit him out.

 

[wrangler]

Looking at the VP debate last night it, and the 500.000+ audience "votes" as to who performed best, was apparent that Millei-Villaruel are the only ones with a message most people want to listen to. This trend is not slowing down and I have the impression that more people are jumping aboard in hope of a dramatic change as they see it gain momentum. I see it as a possibility they take it on the first round.

Villaruel (52% of audience votes) ultimately she said little of substance nor explained anything logically (other than the gradual step by step approach for removing the social plans they would implement), but she knew how to put on a show and could defend herself well against cheap shots from Rossi about being a baby-steaing friend of Videla et al. Show time.
Rossi (16% of audience votes) came across as a rambling old mobster of a career-politician without any actual beliefs or policies, typical of an old-school political movement in its death throws. Pathetic.
Petri (26% of audience votes) was comparatively smooth talking and generally had logical and well rounded arguments. Boring.
Randazzo and Del Caño (6% of audience votes between them) both actually had the most intelligent things to say and were the most interested in debating specific policies with arguments backed by specific examples grounded in reality. Why bother.

The 500,000 audience and votes means nothing. We don't know who watched, who didn't it seems that those mostly interested in Milei watched. I don't know at how you can arrive at any scientific conclusion from this. I still say Milei loses badly. I think people are being fooled here. Time will tell.

 

[Pierre Smith]

BIG IF, He won't be controlling congress, or the gremios, or the sindicatos. They will chew him up, and spit him out.

That's just it, my theory is that the entire JdC could just fall in line if he wins resoundingly. That plus a few deputies, could make the country somewhat governable.

 

[wrangler]

That's just it, my theory is that the entire JdC could just fall in line if he wins resoundingly. That plus a few deputies, could make the country somewhat governable.

Should Milei win, His ability to sway others in a position of power, will depend greatly on his margin of victory against the other candidate. If he wins by a wide margin, he will have more power to sway legislators and others in power. Even so, he will be in constant negotiations with others and will have to compromise. Should he barely pull out a win, then he will not have the same influence... Right now, there is every indication that this is going to ballotage. There is no sign that he will have a resounding win. However, lately polls have been proven wrong everywhere.

 

[perry]

I dislike Milei for many reasons as I dislike all the politicians in Argentina . I feel though that Milei is having a tremendous amount of help to win the elections in Argentina and there seems to be something planned about this . I predict he will win and the country will go to hell in a handbasket. He is not a leader that unites people but the opposite which will cause the worst crisis ever seen in Argentinas history by March 2024 . I am not a peronist and do not follow any political party currently But for me Milei will be the most damaging for Argentina by a long shot!