Could Milei win in the first round?

[earlyretirement]

I doubt it.

He can win in the first round only if Patricia Bullrich and Rodríguez Larreta support him.

According to the preliminary data Milei had received 30.04%, but after the final vote count Milei had received only 29.86 % of the votes against JxC 28.27% (Bullrich + Rodríguez), and Massa + Grabois 27.28%.

IMO Milei is going to win the run-off.

But you are just taking an attitude that NONE of those people would change their minds. Remember before the PASO (mid-term elections) many didn't think Milei actually had a shot. So things are different now. Many people now realize he isn't a joke. So you have to account for a certain/significant % that will change and vote for him.

Meanwhile very few if any that voted for him will change against him. It's the opposite. So you have to account for that.

Milei is gaining traction now.

 

[earlyretirement]

I rode with a taxi driver on Friday who was talking mad trash about Milei, and said he was going to vote for Massa, because he was the least bad of a poor lot. His major beef with Milei was actually a lack of experience. He said that Milei has never had a real job, has no track record, has no qualifications, and this taxista simply wasn't willing to hand the reins of government to "un novato" (amateur or beginner).

He wasn't enthusiastic about Massa, but he was very positive about voting for Massa.

This was a rarity; the vast majority of taxistas I have spoken with have been firmly anti-K, as are most small business people with whom I have spoken.

This taxi driver was a moron. It's morons like him that has kept Argentina going backwards since the good ole days when Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in the world.

My annoyance with Larreta is the thing he's done/doing to the streets here in Retiro. They've had Paraguay east of 9 de Julio torn up for 6 months now. The one block they finally finished, between Esmeralda and Maipú, now has some green areas, and maybe 5 or 6 parking places, but it's also now only one lane wide, whereas before it was two lanes.

But the whole thing has been a terrible boondoggle. At one point early on, they tore it up, then resurfaced it, and then tore it up again. The block between Suipacha and Esmeralda, (just west of the one I mentioned above), is still closed to through traffic. At one point, it was even closed to pedestrians for a few days. The whole business just reeks of graft and corruption, and reminds me of Macri's time as Jefe de Gobierno, when he threw all those construction jobs to his buddy Nicky Caputo's companies.

There is so much corruption you wouldn't believe it. I've built a lot of buildings, houses, bought/sold a lot of land. You wouldn't believe the amount of kick backs government officials want. I NEVER paid then and my projects took much longer but I knew once you pay you never stop.

The stink of corruption has followed Larrata and his Verruca Salt sidekick around for decades now. Their expenditures are so far beyond their means there's no possible legal explanation. I wonder if Dr. Favaloro at least raised a smile from beyond the grave the night Larrata's ambitions died?

Yes, exactly.

I am not certain Milei will pull this off. My gut tells me he can't. He barely edged out a win in 'las paso' and only 63% voted. I am more inclined to think that the "no shows" will NOT vote for him. I am thinking Massa pulls this thing out in October.

Do you want to place a wager on this? I will give you 3 to 1 odds. We can have some third party hold the funds in escrow. I will take up to $50,000 US but you have to decide by September 20 and we have to find a way to safely escrow it. I'll take this bet with anyone that wants to bet and give you 3 to 1 odds. This is for the winner of the Presidency.

Bold prediction, not one many are making

Exactly. People are high or ignorant if they boldly proclaim that Milei doesn't have a shot. I've studied politics and economy my whole life and my money is on Milei.

I dislike Milei for many reasons as I dislike all the politicians in Argentina . I feel though that Milei is having a tremendous amount of help to win the elections in Argentina and there seems to be something planned about this . I predict he will win and the country will go to hell in a handbasket. He is not a leader that unites people but the opposite which will cause the worst crisis ever seen in Argentinas history by March 2024 . I am not a peronist and do not follow any political party currently But for me Milei will be the most damaging for Argentina by a long shot!

Who is he having "help" from?? The guy is giving his blood, sweat and tears to fight for the Presidency. Help? Of course you have to have help to win a Presidency of a nation. What are you referring to or implying? Honestly I want to know as I don't understand your cryptic meaning.

"The country will go to hell in a hand basket"? LOL. It is ALREADY hell in a hand basket. How much worse do you want to see it? The status quo is NOT working. Didn't you also leave Argentina because it was so bad Perry??? I believe you did. So did I. Why? Because the country went to sh*t. Things will be HORRIBLE no matter who is President in 2024. Milei isn't such magic solution. A shitstorm is coming. That's for sure. That IS coming no matter which of the 3 win. Not much can stop that. We are talking about putting things on track not for our generation but most likely for the next. There are no quick and easy solutions but something MUST change in Argentina. But make no mistake it probably will get worse before it gets better.

But something has to change. I kind of laugh at posts like yours that criticize but offer no solutions or changes for Argentina. What's your plan??? I'm very passionate about Argentina. I love Argentina. I consider myself a Porteño. I've had 2 kids that were born there. I got married there. I started many businesses there. I started a hotel there. I have brought in hundreds of millions of dollars into Argentina. I love this place. Not to make money or anything else. I love it because it is "home" to me. I want to see it do well.

I get angry when people just criticize or talk sh*t about Argentina but they offer no solutions. I don't agree with everything Milei says or does. NOT by a long shot. Just like I didn't agree with everything Trump said or did. I think he made more mistakes than he did right. But he had a chance to do them right. He had a lot of good ideas. I don't want to see Milei go the direction of Trump.

I might be in the small minority but I do believe change CAN happen someday in Argentina. It will take blowing stuff up and changing laws and sacrifice and changing of methodology and way of thinking. But I dream of a day my kids or my kids kids that are Argentine can be proud of their country and say it's one of the best countries in the world. A day when they can hold their Argentine passport and be so proud. I own properties there and they will always have a "home" there. I never sold off everything as I loved Argentina too much. I am now going to start buying more real estate there and help others to as well.

#MakeArgentinaGreatAgain

 

[perry]

This taxi driver was a moron. It's morons like him that has kept Argentina going backwards since the good ole days when Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in the world.


There is so much corruption you wouldn't believe it. I've built a lot of buildings, houses, bought/sold a lot of land. You wouldn't believe the amount of kick backs government officials want. I NEVER paid then and my projects took much longer but I knew once you pay you never stop.

Yes, exactly.


Do you want to place a wager on this? I will give you 3 to 1 odds. We can have some third party hold the funds in escrow. I will take up to $50,000 US but you have to decide by September 20 and we have to find a way to safely escrow it. I'll take this bet with anyone that wants to bet and give you 3 to 1 odds. This is for the winner of the Presidency.

Exactly. People are high or ignorant if they boldly proclaim that Milei doesn't have a shot. I've studied politics and economy my whole life and my money is on Milei.

Who is he having "help" from?? The guy is giving his blood, sweat and tears to fight for the Presidency. Help? Of course you have to have help to win a Presidency of a nation. What are you referring to or implying? Honestly I want to know as I don't understand your cryptic meaning.

"The country will go to hell in a hand basket"? LOL. It is ALREADY hell in a hand basket. How much worse do you want to see it? The status quo is NOT working. Didn't you also leave Argentina because it was so bad Perry??? I believe you did. So did I. Why? Because the country went to sh*t. Things will be HORRIBLE no matter who is President in 2024. Milei isn't such magic solution. A shitstorm is coming. That's for sure. That IS coming no matter which of the 3 win. Not much can stop that. We are talking about putting things on track not for our generation but most likely for the next. There are no quick and easy solutions but something MUST change in Argentina. But make no mistake it probably will get worse before it gets better.

But something has to change. I kind of laugh at posts like yours that criticize but offer no solutions or changes for Argentina. What's your plan??? I'm very passionate about Argentina. I love Argentina. I consider myself a Porteño. I've had 2 kids that were born there. I got married there. I started many businesses there. I started a hotel there. I have brought in hundreds of millions of dollars into Argentina. I love this place. Not to make money or anything else. I love it because it is "home" to me. I want to see it do well.

I get angry when people just criticize or talk sh*t about Argentina but they offer no solutions. I don't agree with everything Milei says or does. NOT by a long shot. Just like I didn't agree with everything Trump said or did. I think he made more mistakes than he did right. But he had a chance to do them right. He had a lot of good ideas. I don't want to see Milei go the direction of Trump.

I might be in the small minority but I do believe change CAN happen someday in Argentina. It will take blowing stuff up and changing laws and sacrifice and changing of methodology and way of thinking. But I dream of a day my kids or my kids kids that are Argentine can be proud of their country and say it's one of the best countries in the world. A day when they can hold their Argentine passport and be so proud. I own properties there and they will always have a "home" there. I never sold off everything as I loved Argentina too much. I am now going to start buying more real estate there and help others to as well.

#MakeArgentinaGreatAgain

I beliieve you are a very sincere man Early Retirement and your love for Argentina is genuine and uplifiting . Unfortnately Argentina is the greatest prize in the world atm for a select group of people and they will do everything to get him in power . I have posted this today as a record of my thoughts and if I am wrong I will come on this forum and apologise to all members . Argentina under this man will get much worse not better and I see changes in the country that few would ever believe now . His comments on auto determination of the kelpérs are very telling what does this mean exactly ? This plays into seperatism and argentina has many territories Patagonia .Mendoza, Cordoba who want to be independent and under this new government I feel it will happen . Argentina is the last frontier of the planet and its resources infinite can you imagine the elite are rubbing their hands in glee to able to control these assets using seperatism to divide and conquer . look at Russia , Yugoslavia , Iraq just some recent countries that were seperated in many different entities .

 

[FrankPintor]

Calling Villaruel out for her denial of the crimes against humanity committed by the Argentinian dictatorship and her attempts to whitewash those convicted of these crimes is absolutely valid. It is most certainly not a cheap shot. Not all of the victims of the dictatorship have been found, let alone buried, and she's already trying to rehabilitate some of the worst of those found guilty of murder and torture.

In a time where fascism has been succeeding in Latin America, particularly in Brazil with Bolsonaro, Chile with Kast (from a Nazi family with connections to Colonia Dignidad), and now with Villaruel, it's exceedingly valuable to identify and expose those who play the democratic game but will never respect its rules or conventions.

I understand there's a legal project to have apologism for the dictatorship made a crime (similar to Germany, where Holocaust denial is a crime), and I really hope it becomes law soon enough to stop those like Villaruel from infiltrating and poisoning democracy here.

 

[earlyretirement]

I beliieve you are a very sincere man Early Retirement and your love for Argentina is genuine and uplifiting . Unfortnately Argentina is the greatest prize in the world atm for a select group of people and they will do everything to get him in power . I have posted this today as a record of my thoughts and if I am wrong I will come on this forum and apologise to all members . Argentina under this man will get much worse not better and I see changes in the country that few would ever believe now . His comments on auto determination of the kelpérs are very telling what does this mean exactly ? This plays into seperatism and argentina has many territories Patagonia .Mendoza, Cordoba who want to be independent and under this new government I feel it will happen . Argentina is the last frontier of the planet and its resources infinite can you imagine the elite are rubbing their hands in glee to able to control these assets using seperatism to divide and conquer . look at Russia , Yugoslavia , Iraq just some recent countries that were seperated in many different entities .

Thank you Perry. As I believe you are. I agree with you that Javier is plain WRONG on many issues. I don't disagree with you there. But I think the other political parties also are doing a lot of wrong things.

Let's see about Argentina. I do believe it will get worse before it gets better no matter who is in office. But it's going to take something drastic to change things.

I TOTALLY agree with you about Argentina being the last frontier on the planet. It's so pristine and beautiful. Let's what I'm always trying to push upon people. Just how special it is. I don't think even Argentines know what a gem they have. That's why I want to see things turn around. If they can get their act together, I believe it's one of the best places to live for anyone on the planet.

At least with Milei, many foreigners are looking to invest there again as they believe there is at least some hope of a turn around. I don't see that with any other political parties and the status quo.

Thanks for posting. I know you love Argentina as much as I do.

 

[TWB103]

Thank you Perry. As I believe you are. I agree with you that Javier is plain WRONG on many issues. I don't disagree with you there. But I think the other political parties also are doing a lot of wrong things.

Let's see about Argentina. I do believe it will get worse before it gets better no matter who is in office. But it's going to take something drastic to change things.

I TOTALLY agree with you about Argentina being the last frontier on the planet. It's so pristine and beautiful. Let's what I'm always trying to push upon people. Just how special it is. I don't think even Argentines know what a gem they have. That's why I want to see things turn around. If they can get their act together, I believe it's one of the best places to live for anyone on the planet.

At least with Milei, many foreigners are looking to invest there again as they believe there is at least some hope of a turn around. I don't see that with any other political parties and the status quo.

Thanks for posting. I know you love Argentina as much as I do.

The moment THE MOMENT this country begins to turn its self round expect mass migration, illegal and legal, as is happening in the US and Europe. In fact Argentina will be seen as a more attractive option even. Great for investors and speculators I guess but Argentina will rapidly change in more ways than one.

 

[toongeorges]

I do not share the optimism about the future of Argentina, though I would certainly wish it.

Argentina can only progress if 3 moderate governments are elected in a row that do things that make common sense. This is the time required to build trust and the minimum time required before a "lluvia de inversiones" can start.

Argentines do not have that patience. They do not elect sustained and moderate improvements. They choose for instant radical change.

Whenever a government takes over that wants to fix imbalances introduced by populists, it has to cut spending drastically. Things get worse before they get better, because people lose massive subsidies. Before things can go better, there are new elections and people elect again politicians that shower them with hand outs at the cost of sacrifycing Argentina's future.

Argentines are addicts of subsidies and the populists know very well how to play the people to keep coming back. Politics here is all about people serving the politicians. Argentina is collateral damage.

 

[earlyretirement]

The moment THE MOMENT this country begins to turn its self round expect mass migration, illegal and legal, as is happening in the US and Europe. In fact Argentina will be seen as a more attractive option even. Great for investors and speculators I guess but Argentina will rapidly change in more ways than one.

Yes, I know. But it's already starting. I only have 2 Airbnb's there and the last several guests have all been Russians. They are paying top dollar. I also have been recently retained by Russians to purchase homes there. So I know it's already happening. It's the type of thing maybe the every day ex-pat doesn't see but I'd venture to guess you talk to respected immigration attorneys like Bajo_cero and I'd guess if I'm seeing it then he is too. I'd love to hear comments from him on this issue.

Argentina is one of the easiest countries in the world to be a "permanent tourist". I don't know if that changes. But they already have Mercosur and all of Venezuela and Colombia are living in Buenos Aires already. They can go to school free and work there.

I think it moves more of making it less easy for them and easier for people with $$$$ to move there. I'd like to see golden visa programs in place where $XXX,XXX invested in Argentina automatically gets you a DNI. I do believe a DNI will become more valuable there heading into the future. People don't realize what a gold mine Argentina is with natural resources. The only thing in the news is all the Sh*t about bad economy but it's bountiful with so many natural resources it boggles the mind.

I do not share the optimism about the future of Argentina, though I would certainly wish it.

Argentina can only progress if 3 moderate governments are elected in a row that do things that make common sense. This is the time required to build trust and the minimum time required before a "lluvia de inversiones" can start.

Argentines do not have that patience. They do not elect sustained and moderate improvements. They choose for instant radical change.

Whenever a government takes over that wants to fix imbalances introduced by populists, it has to cut spending drastically. Things get worse before they get better, because people lose massive subsidies. Before things can go better, there are new elections and people elect again politicians that shower them with hand outs at the cost of sacrifycing Argentina's future.

Argentines are addicts of subsidies and the populists know very well how to play the people to keep coming back. Politics here is all about people serving the politicians. Argentina is collateral damage.

I don't necessarily disagree with you. Your points are intelligent and spot on target. Anyone that reads my posts for the past 13 years knows I'm NOT a dreamer. I'm logical and common sense driven. I've accomplished quite a bit in my life and I hope to accomplish more (autobiography) and hope to revolutionaize real estate market in Latin America with technology. I don't know if it will happen in my life time but it's a goal of mine that my kids see that sometimes in THEIR lifetime.

I agree with you about Argentines being stupid and ignorant. They aren't patient either. Like I said, things will be there a mess. But I can tell you this. 20+ years ago EVERYONE told me I was crazy. Everyone. They all told me doom and gloom stories about Argentina and how I'd fail. I worked with many people in politics from all political parties. Many even invested with me. I would on a daily/weekly/yearly basis think of EVERY single way I could get cheated and failed and would work backwards to protect myself and my investors. You know that scene in the movie, Limitless with Bradley Cooper? That's how I felt. I felt like I could see 50 steps ahead of everyone. It's crazy but true.

Against all odds, an American accomplished a lot there. Its hard as hell working there. I was working mostly 16/17 hours a day for 7.5 years in a row. I joke with people I worked the equivalent of 20 years during those 7.5 years. It was by far the toughest thing I've ever done in my life. But it was the most rewarding thing I did in my life.

I totally fell in love with Argentina and I am in fact still in more in love with Argentina than ever. The easy play would be staying in the USA. I have enough money to live anywhere in the world. But I choose Argentina every day of the week. It's where my heart is.

People might call me a dreamer. But you know what? Maybe I AM a dreamer of a wonderful and powerful and rich Argentina.

 

[wrangler]

Do you want to place a wager on this? I will give you 3 to 1 odds. We can have some third party hold the funds in escrow. I will take up to $50,000 US but you have to decide by September 20 and we have to find a way to safely escrow it. I'll take this bet with anyone that wants to bet and give you 3 to 1 odds. This is for the winner of the Presidency.

No, I won't wager. I still think Milei Loses the elections.

 

[wrangler]

@earlyretirement Should Milei win, I hope he faces a lot of resistance in his policies.

Legislative Opposition: If the president's party does not have a majority in the legislative chambers (the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies), opposition parties can challenge or block legislation that they disagree with.

Judicial Review: The judiciary, particularly the Supreme Court, can declare certain actions or laws unconstitutional if they violate the country's constitution.

Federalism: Argentina is a federal republic, meaning that individual provinces have their own governments with certain powers. Provincial governments can resist or push back against national policies they disagree with.

Public Opinion: Public opinion and popular protests can influence government actions. A government may reconsider or modify its actions if faced with significant public opposition.

Gremios and Sindicatos: Unions, or "sindicatos," and other workers' groups, known as "gremios," play a significant role in Argentine politics. If they oppose certain policies, they can organize strikes, mobilize their members for protests, and use their influence in various sectors of the economy to apply pressure, and they should.

Media and Civil Society: A free press and an active civil society can hold the government accountable by shedding light on potential misconduct or unpopular policies. I hope the media comes down on him like a ton of bricks.

Internal Party Politics: Even within a political party, there can be differences of opinion. Some members of the president's party might not fully align with all of the president's policies, leading to negotiations or modifications. Hopefully he will face stiff resistance from within his closest allies in do time, when they realize he is destroying the country.


So, should he win, He won't be Tsar, He will have a difficult time implementing his radical policies. Lets hope for the well being of Argentina 'this guy' does not win.