Could Milei win in the first round?

[Ries]

Pretty clear who is winning

not sure of how a video of a couple of hundred fans watching Milei vote is "winning". I mean, I saw a million women protest against the abortion laws, and it still took a year or so more to "win". The day aint over yet.

 

[perry]

not sure of how a video of a couple of hundred fans watching Milei vote is "winning". I mean, I saw a million women protest against the abortion laws, and it still took a year or so more to "win". The day aint over yet.

People will soon find out the real reasons for the rapid rise of Milei in the coming year .. There will he huge changes in Argentina that are similar to what happened in Russia under Gorbachev . Buyer beware !

 

[redlobster]

There will he huge changes in Argentina that are similar to what happened in Russia under Gorbachev . Buyer beware !

I'm more afraid the post-election situation might resemble Russia of 1917 rather than Russia of 1985.

 

[Rich One]

If there's ballotage, the third candidate that didn't get in, will have a key card, in the future government support in Congress.

I'm more afraid the post-election situation might resemble Russia of 1917 rather than Russia of 1985.

More of a Trosko movement than a Gladnost or Perestroika. Who's the Gorbachev.

 

[grosso95]

not sure of how a video of a couple of hundred fans watching Milei vote is "winning". I mean, I saw a million women protest against the abortion laws, and it still took a year or so more to "win". The day aint over yet.

Before the PASO a lot of people saw Milei as a wasted vote vs the opposition. Seeing as he was leading the PASO and now a lot of people will vote for him as the clear favorite. This entire election has been about milei, for good or bad.

Elections are mostly a popularity contest after all. Rally turnout is not a scientific method at all but just comparing vs bullrich and massa + paso results it's clear he is the winner, the only question is if it is today or on the second round.

 

[Big Swifty]

If Milei doesn't win outright and is forced into a runoff, I'm curious what the candidate who came in third will do as far as an endorsement (or if they don't give one at all) and who their supporters will hold their nose and vote for in the second round. Will their second vote cancel each other out or will most of them vote in a strategic way so that the "greater of two evils" loses, and how much consensus is there on which of the two advancing candidates is the greater evil?

I'm wondering if like Trump, Milei's support has a significant floor and a ceiling that isn't that much higher but will have a hard time bringing over opposition and undecideds to his side for the second round. Can he grow his already significant support to put him over the top or does he have a hard ceiling of support that can't be increased?

 

[grosso95]

The runoff is most likely Milei-Massa.
I would think at least Macri endorses Milei and maybe even Bullrich and other JxC come out against Massa, I don't see Bullrich supporting Milei directly.

If Milei wins a portion of JxC would go and ally with him anyways, he said so himself.

 

[lunar]

If Milei doesn't win outright and is forced into a runoff, I'm curious what the candidate who came in third will do as far as an endorsement (or if they don't give one at all) and who their supporters will hold their nose and vote for in the second round.

Even if the candidate who lost urges his supporters to vote for candidate A, they might still decide to vote for candidate B instead. I believe that Massa's supporters would be more likely to vote for Milei than for Bullrich. The same goes for Bullrich's supporters.

 

[Big Swifty]

Even if the candidate who lost urges his supporters to vote for candidate A, they might still decide to vote for candidate B instead. I believe that Massa's supporters would be more likely to vote for Milei than for Bullrich. The same goes for Bullrich's supporters.

Of course a candidate's endorsement is no guarantee that their followers will vote in such a way in any potential second round. I'd safely guess the number of supporters who do follow the endorsement to be between 1 and 99 percent.

I'm still waiting on my DNI, am unable to vote, and so haven't been following this election to the degree where I can say with any certainty that polling shows how potential supporters of losing candidates C, D, and E would vote in a second round. I'm sure that if a second round is needed there'll soon enough be polling that gives us a better picture of where support will turn compared to our personal, subjective opinions on where support will turn. Unless someone is an Argentine political scientist, all of our prognostications and beliefs are mostly based on our personal, subjective hopes for who will ultimately win the second round - we'd like to think supporters of C, D, and E will support A/B but without valid polling results or examples from recent history (Milei is pretty much a unique situation in recent ARG politics - no?) to back up those beliefs.... And I have no idea of what the average Argentine's opinion on polling is (do they tell the truth, or like in the US are certain people more prone to not being truthful when being polled?), but recent history shows that even the polls can be wrong and the actual votes are the only poll results that matter.

 

[wrangler]

Pretty clear who is winning

Ummm, he's trailing MASSA by about 6% with 83% of the vote in.