Could Milei win in the first round?

[Wayne Tompkins]

It may have backfired.

The media needed a villain, and Milei fit the bill. It was classic "build him up, then tear him down." My Argentine in-laws are terrified of him. The sad thing is if Milei had bubbled under in the PASO like the polls suggested, Patricia Bullrich would this morning be the president-elect. I don't like everything about her but even she would have been an improvement. We seem to share the same sense of humor. The punchline in that prison ad where she proposed to name the prison after Cristina Kirchner is the funniest political ad ever. I'm still laughing.

 

[Rich One]

Massa is now a Pastor Brasileiro preaching a government of coalition. Massa won because he is the best candidate, just hearing his excellent acceptance speech, no Kirchneristas around appealed only to family values. Milei instead read a prepared speech, very weak. Only dogs, no family.
Massa with all the government resources at his disposal, plus economic measures he may take, could he not be elected President ?

 

[Redpossum]

This result is like a dose of Tylenol. The political temperature has been reduced, but the illness remains. I'm a little surprised more people didn't see Bullrich as the reasonable alternative. She's not the warmest and fuzziest person, but is she really that disliked?

They say a picture is worth a thousand words. This is on the west side of Triunvirato, just south of the tracks near Rosas station in Villa Urquiza, and it's been there for weeks. You can see someone has scraped a bit at the bottom right, trying to hide where the poster added an E to her name so it says "Bullreich", but other than that nothing has been done to remove it.

 

[Quilombo]

For those of us who live here, last night's results are like a reprieve from heaven.

I'm still bullish on Milei's chances - looks like Massa already got Laretta's voters, so except for maybe some of Schiaretti's and Bregman's, I sorta feel like 37% is close to Massa's ceiling and floor. Let's assume for example that Massa manages to get's all of their votes (not likely), that puts him at 46.16%. If Milei gets 70% of Bullrich's voters, he's president. I find it hard to believe that Bullrich's voters would let Massa become president, they're the most radical of PRO and motivated by their hate of Ks.

She's not the warmest and fuzziest person, but is she really that disliked?

Empirical so take it with a grain of salt, but the adjective I always hear people use with her is perra with a capital P

 

[Pierre Smith]

^ nah, it's Boric v. Kast again. There simply isn't a 50%+1 for Milei, he's now dropped below 30% in the counting.

 

[Big Swifty]

I like following prediction markets which are known to be pretty accurate. Maybe because people aren't making predictions based on what the heart desires but the wallet and the desire to win, not lose, the money they wager.

This is the only one I found (so far) and it looks like they haven't yet updated to take into account yesterday's results.

Polymarket | Argentina Presidential Election: Who will wi...

Polymarket | Patricia Bullrich is seeking election to the presidency in the 2023 Argentine general election, currently scheduled to take place on October 22, 2023. This market will resolve to "Yes...

polymarket.com

 

[wrangler]

I'm still bullish on Milei's chances - looks like Massa already got Laretta's voters, so except for maybe some of Schiaretti's and Bregman's, I sorta feel like 37% is close to Massa's ceiling and floor. Let's assume for example that Massa manages to get's all of their votes (not likely), that puts him at 46.16%. If Milei gets 70% of Bullrich's voters, he's president. I find it hard to believe that Bullrich's voters would let Massa become president, they're the most radical of PRO and motivated by their hate of Ks.


Empirical so take it with a grain of salt, but the adjective I always hear people use with her is perra with a capital P

That's what I call fuzzy math. Good luck with that.

 

[Brit_In_BA]

Do people genuinely think Massa is a dead cert(well as certain as one can be) to win? Forgive my ignorance, but I don’t see how a Bullrich voter would switch to Massa over Milei in the second round

 

[wrangler]

Do people genuinely think Massa is a dead cert(well as certain as one can be) to win? Forgive my ignorance, but I don’t see how a Bullrich voter would switch to Massa over Milei in the second round

I think Massa is likely to win, yes. There was a huge #antimilei movement. Let me also mention that the peronistas took a huge beating, which gives Massa's victory even more merit. Yes, it's safe to say, that a lot of Bullrich's votes will go to Massa, since a lot of them where radicals, and they won't vote for Milei, who is considered very dangerous, not to mention, how badly milei has insulted them.

 

[Jtee125]

Is there not a case to make that polling in Argentina is notoriously unreliable and that it’s a pretty fuzzy battleground until the final election? Still, I always place more confidence in prediction markets than polls as Big Swift explains