Could Milei win in the first round?

[Alby]

I think enough Bullrich voters will stay home, or vote in blanco to make it impossible for Milei. They don't have to express their disgust with Massa by voting for Milei.

 

[Big Swifty]

Is there not a case to make that polling in Argentina is notoriously unreliable and that it’s a pretty fuzzy battleground until the final election? Still, I always place more confidence in prediction markets than polls as Big Swift explains

Even the big banks with their experts can be said to be unreliable. This is what Wells Fargo was saying in mid-August after PASO and as far as I can tell is their most recent forecast:

 

[PaulBee]

Even the big banks with their experts can be said to be unreliable. This is what Wells Fargo was saying in mid-August after PASO and as far as I can tell is their most recent forecast:

View attachment 9148

 

[PaulBee]

By normal standards that poll was waaaay off !

 

[Jtee125]

Even the big banks with their experts can be said to be unreliable. This is what Wells Fargo was saying in mid-August after PASO and as far as I can tell is their most recent forecast:

View attachment 9148

Most prediction markets are more fluid than mid-August no? I tend to watch OddsChecker to follow political markets but it’s notably absent for the Argentinian election

 

[FrankPintor]

Even the big banks with their experts can be said to be unreliable. This is what Wells Fargo was saying in mid-August after PASO and as far as I can tell is their most recent forecast:

Was it a forecast? Or wishful thinking?

It was obvious for several weeks that Bullrich's campaign was imploding, and I think it's fair to say it's entirely her fault. She had no positive message to give, her focus was very obviously her personal vendetta against Cristina, including the spiteful and gratuitous promise to name a new prison after her. She would have dedicated her 4 years to pursuing Cristina, not to governing the country. Despite having what seemed to be a sensible, non-loony economist on board, her self-indulgence destroyed her campaign. With her last minute frantic tack back to the centre to get Larrata on board and his votes as well, it was clear she was desperate. Her ungracious concession speech last night was characteristic.

It was also obvious that Massa would improve, he had the party machinery and Axel Kicilof behind him. Perhaps not so obvious was how Milei's vote would collapse, his ceiling is still 30%. It's funny to watch how, as more and more votes are counted, his share goes down. People who live in the remote corners of Buenos Aires province and where they have to bring the voting urns by mule train in Jujuy can't live without some support from the state. And the state can't afford to depopulate these areas either. I think making it clear what bus and train fares would look without subsidies was an excellent and completely fair tactic. Plus, his needless alignment with apologists for the dictatorship must have turned some people off.

I think we've seen peak Milei. Bregman's 2.7%, and a lot of Schiaretti's 6.8% (he is a peronist) will go to Massa. So too will at least some of Bullrich's voters, having been insulted by Milei. Say 10% from there, so 15-17% to add to the 37% Massa scored just now, and he's home.

 

[wrangler]

Do people genuinely think Massa is a dead cert(well as certain as one can be) to win? Forgive my ignorance, but I don’t see how a Bullrich voter would switch to Massa over Milei in the second round

Have you looked at his agenda? Everything that he plans on doing?? It's radically different than bullrich.

 

[Ries]

The media needed a villain, and Milei fit the bill. It was classic "build him up, then tear him down." My Argentine in-laws are terrified of him. The sad thing is if Milei had bubbled under in the PASO like the polls suggested, Patricia Bullrich would this morning be the president-elect. I don't like everything about her but even she would have been an improvement. We seem to share the same sense of humor. The punchline in that prison ad where she proposed to name the prison after Cristina Kirchner is the funniest political ad ever. I'm still laughing.

Considering there are 10 daily papers, ranging from extreme left to extreme right, its pretty hard for me to see how "the media" in Argentina can be construed as a monolith which somehow influences who gets elected. I have seen and heard every possible viewpoint on the media here, and a lot of people only read or watch or listen to the 2 or 3 sources that they like- so if La Nacion is behind a particular conspiracy theory, how could Pagina 12 also be responsible?
I just think that Argentina has less flaming radical libertarians than the US, and a gigantic percentage of the population buys the basic food basket thats subsidized, rides subsidized transit, goes to public schools, works for the government, or is in unions, or uses public healthcare, and so on- a much higher percentage than in the US, for sure. And those people arent buying what Milei is selling.

 

[Ries]

Did any comuna in CABA go Milei? CABA was the stronghold of Bullrich, nationwide, and I cant see a lot of her voters switching to Milei.
I was at a party this weekend with about 30 upper middle class Argentine professionals, some wealthy, some not (a college professor here makes about $500 a month, and there were some there).
Nobody there would admit to planning on voting Milei, although no doubt a few did, but several said they were going with Bullrich, but then voting blanco in the ballotage if there was one. But a good half of those present were vocally pushing Massa as the less of 3 evils.

 

[Reply Guy]

Argentina is the only country in the world that would elect an economic minister presiding over 140% inflation.

Milei needs to moderate his message. He scares a lot of the traditional middle upper / upper class in Argentina. The types that vote for PRO. I'm not sure who they will go for now. That's who Massa and Milei will be fighting for votes.

I see Massa distancing himself from the Ks even more in the next few weeks. A message of I'll end Kirchnerismo without being too radical like Milei.