Could Milei win in the first round?

[wrangler]

The Bullrich voters will decide who will be the next President.

Yes, and they don't want their dollars to become worth less here in Argentina. They like the Dollar Blue -> Peso system. Therefore voting for Milei will put that under threat. I see a high percentage of them voting for Massa.

 

[wrangler]

Massa comes from UCEDE that is the historic liberal party and he has a long experience in politics having no enemies while Milei has no experience in
Politics neither working. He called “pissing old men” to JxC voters that now he needs…

Let me also add, that a lot of those who voted for Bullrich, are radicales, and he has consistently insulted them as well.. Shows you Milei is not very smart politically. He created a lot of enemies, and that will come back to bite him in the rear.

 

[Rich One]

Yes, and they don't want their dollars to become worth less here in Argentina. They like the Dollar Blue -> Peso system. Therefore voting for Milei will put that under threat. I see a high percentage of them voting for Massa.

Argentinians that hold dollars under the mattress constitute a Small % of the voters.IMHO

 

[Reply Guy]

Let me also add, that a lot of those who voted for Bullrich, are radicales, and he has consistently insulted them as well.. Shows you Milei is not very smart politically. He created a lot of enemies, and that will come back to bite him in the rear.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1716462605143777540

 

[Ruta Otto]

Argentinians that hold dollars under the mattress constitute a Small % of the voters.IMHO

I wouldn't be so sure https://www.ambito.com/finanzas/dol...dad-argentinos-que-lo-eligen-ahorrar-n5497159

 

[Reply Guy]

.

 

[wrangler]

I wouldn't be so sure https://www.ambito.com/finanzas/dol...dad-argentinos-que-lo-eligen-ahorrar-n5497159

I think more Argentines have dollars than one might think especially JxC Argentines. Furthermore, Argentina has one of the highest amount of U.S. dollars in the world. This could spell trouble for Milei.

 

[Quilombo]

I think there's a big difference between those who have less than $500 saved vs tens of thousands. My in laws are the 40% of Argentines that are poor, and I don't believe they have a single dollar to their names, in cash or otherwise. They live, consume, and are paid in pesos. You can't save when you don't make enough money to make it to the end of the month in pesos, let alone dollars.

Sometimes I think some folks forget how privileged users of this forum are. We may not be rich in our countries of origin, but if your country's pension system pays at least $1K a month you're now getting a million pesos vs. the 132K ARS minimum wage for example. The lives we live are very different than those of most Argentines, and I think this makes some of us forget that while there are billions of dollars here "under the mattress" they're under a the mattresses of a relatively small number of Argentines compared to the general population.

 

[mageesa]

I think there's a big difference between those who have less than $500 saved vs tens of thousands. My in laws are the 40% of Argentines that are poor, and I don't believe they have a single dollar to their names, in cash or otherwise. They live, consume, and are paid in pesos. You can't save when you don't make enough money to make it to the end of the month in pesos, let alone dollars.

Sometimes I think some folks forget how privileged users of this forum are. We may not be rich in our countries of origin, but if your country's pension system pays at least $1K a month you're now getting a million pesos vs. the 132K ARS minimum wage for example. The lives we live are very different than those of most Argentines, and I think this makes some of us forget that while there are billions of dollars here "under the mattress" they're under a the mattresses of a relatively small number of Argentines compared to the general population.

Yes I suspect a lot of those mattresses are in vaults in Panama, or the Cayman Islands... though I have read that Argentina has the 2nd most dollars in the world, after the USA!

 

[Brit_In_BA]

Do people genuinely think Massa is a dead cert(well as certain as one can be) to win? Forgive my ignorance, but I don’t see how a Bullrich voter would switch to Massa over Milei in the second round

Well… :’)