Dollar $11,65 Pesos Unstoppable Tommorow Over $12 ?

[ghost]

Say, folks a question for you all > If a foreigner wants to bring a large amount of US greens, where to stash the dough
so to make the adequate "timing" cambios en la calle Florida>? One can not put the Dollars in the banks right?

Perhaps giveth to a one famous attorney to hold it for you ? Or is there another better ways ? 'cause me thinking to making the plunge there muy pronto and have to enhance my gringo dinero to benefit in harvesting the more AR pesos.

Open a bank account there in UR and do the repeated runs acroos the water.? Or just use the Xoom services?
Any one with any sort of helping hand amongst the BAexpats? Anyone?

WTF are you talking about.

 

[ghost]

NOW we are getting down to real world explanations. If I understand you correctly -

I'm a soy farmer. I sell my crop for pesos. I pay off my debts, and then I have a chunk of money. I don't want to hold that in pesos, because inflation will cause my chunk to lose value. So I trade my pesos for dollars, thinking they will hold their value better. This creates demand for dollars, so the blue goes up.

How is that?

My point being that real economics can be understood in real world terms. Deliberate obfuscation of the issue serves only to hide the machinations of the speculators, and to persuade everyday people that economics is too complex for them to understand.

You are 15% right.

 

[ghost]

The only part of that I didn't know was that the sales were transacted in dollars. I have been following at least headline news in Argentina for a bit over six months now, and since I arrived I've been spending a solid hour reading newspapers, (slowly, haltingly) almost every morning. And I know about the Chinese buyers defaulting on soy shipments, too. You'd think the Argentine soy exporters would be hurting for money.

OK, so, Rich One said-


I suggested a series of steps by which that might happen, and you have both pointed out that wasn't it.

So, looking again at what Rich One said, if the farmers sold their soy for dollars, how does them wanting to buy dollars make sense? They already had dollars, as you've explained it.

Here is the way the Chinese do business. They negotiate a contract and agree on price and sign the deal. Once the ship is half way to China they start to negotiate again. How would you like to do business that way?

 

[HeyHeyJose]

Here is the way the Chinese do business. They negotiate a contract and agree on price and sign the deal. Once the ship is half way to China they start to negotiate again. How would you like to do business that way?

Oh man this brings back memories. I lived and worked in Beijing many years ago and that practice is at all levels of the economic activity. Everything I thought I knew about "pricing" and contracts was put over its head. Even though I dealt only in China many friends told me it was common across SE Asia.

 

[HeyHeyJose]

I think the price will be allowed to fluctuate up to $12 - $13 pesos, beyond that many people could panic and aggressively hit the market, causing a further spiral of the exchange rate.

Tomorrow I will see my "guy" and exchange some money, let's see what he has to say about this sudden increase.

 

[NoVegetables]

It has been explained well on this site: has to do with the liquidation of soy exports (likely one of the main reasons)

My real question is why now?

It can't be that they were waiting for a low price of the dollar because the dollar hasn't changed much in months.
It can't be that the soy farmers decided that mid/late May is time to move their products, without cause or reason.
It would nice to know what the variables are that converged on this particular moment.

 

[internationalguy]

Last year, as I was getting ready to move here, the dollar hit the $10 dollar barrier for the first time exactly around this time in May. I don't know why but the pattern seems to be the same. Unfortunately last year by the time I came they had lowered it to 8.6 or something.

 

[garryl]

The rumor on the street is that there will be big change soon, blue goes around 13.

 

[Churchill]

Azimo rates have gone DOWN for the £ after the blue RISE yesterday. Offering 16.01 this morning. Even for skimming a whack of the top they should be offering 18.

 

[Redpossum]

Xoom is offering 10.63 as of circa 1100 today (Thursday).