Dollar $11,65 Pesos Unstoppable Tommorow Over $12 ?

[Rich One]

The Economist predicts a Drastic Shake of the Exchange Rates In Argentina.

"The Economist" vaticinó una "dramática sacudida" del tipo de cambio en Argentina....!!!


English version!!

http://www.economist.com/blogs/americasview/2014/05/argentine-peso
http://www.infobae.c...ambio-argentina

 

[EdRooney]

To alleviate some of the mystery, just about all of these companies use the contado con liqui to determine their rates. They do not follow the Blue, because at least in theory they remain legal by buying Argentine stocks quoted on foreign markets and then selling them in USD/GBP/EUR, which nets them a lower rate than the Blue.

That said, over the past decade or so, one of my favourite spectator sports has been watching expats read tea leaves to predict their ForEx rates, so please don't let me get in the way...

 

[Jaredberryman]

From what I understand, the dollar is going up for the same reasons as in January. In January, the government found a way to temporarily bring it down because they offered bonds to banks in exchange for lowering the dollar reserves (by law banks can have a percentage of their currency in dollars). Of course the bonds were a good deal and this gave the gov. some cash dollars, which they could put into the market and bring down the blue dollar while subsequently devaluating the official rate. That was a stop gag measure and surely now that effect has run its course. Dollars are drying up and so the blue marketing is going up again. The reasons for the blue market devaluation are the ones listed in the infobae article above. If they were smart, they would take the time now to do a major devaluation of the official currency and go ahead and lift the cepo. It will be ugly, and the reserves will disappear, but it's bound to happen sooner or later.

 

[EdRooney]

I don't understand why that would bring reserves down, wouldn't it do the opposite? Since BCRA spends reserves to keep the peso low, so letting the Peso drop would mean spending less reserves. Also, the more the dollar goes up, the more grain producers will sell their hoards, leading to influx of dollars. Yet the K's don't want to do it suddenly because they fear the political/macro shock effects. Or am I misunderstanding you?

 

[Matiasba]

As I said many times, the "veranito" will last only a few months, the harvest time, and then by july we ll have the same situation than in january. Although, this time the government took mixed orthodox and heterodox measures to stop inflation, its like now they want to negotiate with the right, with the economic power, to make this next year and a half more peaceful. Im pesimistic and do not think they will make it, I expect hyperinflation, or something that make governability impossible to CFK, I expect hard times, history shows us that since dictatorship, and including them, EVERY SINGLE GOVERNMENT ended with a financial and social crisis.

 

[Redpossum]

As I said many times, the "veranito" will last only a few months, the harvest time, and then by july we ll have the same situation than in january. Although, this time the government took mixed measures to stop inflation, its like now they want to negotiate with the right, with the economic power, to make this next year and a half more peaceful. Im pesimistic and do not think they will make it, I expect hyperinflation, or something that make governability impossible to CFK, I expect hard times, history shows us that since dictatorship, and including them, EVERY SINGLE GOVERNMENT ended with a financial and social crisis.

Now there's a calm, well-reasoned prediction based upon historical examples. I have to respect that.

 

[Rich One]

As I said many times, the "veranito" will last only a few months, the harvest time, and then by july we ll have the same situation than in january. Although, this time the government took mixed orthodox and heterodox measures to stop inflation, its like now they want to negotiate with the right, with the economic power, to make this next year and a half more peaceful. Im pesimistic and do not think they will make it, I expect hyperinflation, or something that make governability impossible to CFK, I expect hard times, history shows us that since dictatorship, and including them, EVERY SINGLE GOVERNMENT ended with a financial and social crisis.

Alleluyah Matias spoke he has seen the light! At last!

 

[Churchill]

I wrote to Azimo. They said there was a glitch in the system. The rate has been adjusted and now shows as 17.11. Still not great but obviously an improvement on the 16.01 they offered this morning.

 

[French jurist]

Important news:

http://www.cronista.com/economiapolitica/Sorpresa-en-los-bancos-el-BCRA-se-niega-a-vender-dolares-desde-que-comenzo-la-jornada-20140522-0110.html

 

[Alicia karr]

So the central bank is not selling dollars to anyone and giving notes of credit instead? What does this mean? They're protecting their last remaining dollars? Forgive my limited grasp of Castellano and economics, es como decir "lunfardonomics".......