Dollar blue at 139

dsp27

Registered
Default on the 22nd?
No, Argentina will not default. It's not worth it. The current debt is ~17% of GDP. When ARG defaulted in 2001 it was like 150%. A default would be ridiculously stupid. Bond holders will also lose if Argentina defaults and the already fragile global markets will be afflicted so both sides will be pressured till the last minute to compromise -- and I think they will.

Now the blue rate is illogical. A blue at about 110-115 makes sense but 140 is pure speculation so enjoy it while it lasts. It's a very very very small market and it's rigged. It's not really "free" there's a market maker somewhere in the city porteño that can influence the price as they see fit. At some point they will dump a massive amount of $ to cash out and profit (bringing down the blue to more moderate levels). The Dollar Liqui and MEP are a more accurate measure of the dollar but even they have a certain level of distortion.
 
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Rich One

Registered
Infobae reports it's an excellent momento to buy a new car. Prices are quoted in official dollar rate? historically low prices. Change your blue dollars

Last Thursday, the blue or informal dollar traded at $ 138, a new high with which it has already accumulated a jump of 83.4% so far in 2020 and widens the gap with the wholesale dollar to 104 percent. The values of the 0 km are fixed in pesos at the value of the official dollar.

 

domthegreat

Registered
Infobae reports it's an excellent momento to buy a new car. Prices are quoted in official dollar rate? historically low prices. Change your blue dollars

Last Thursday, the blue or informal dollar traded at $ 138, a new high with which it has already accumulated a jump of 83.4% so far in 2020 and widens the gap with the wholesale dollar to 104 percent. The values of the 0 km are fixed in pesos at the value of the official dollar.

Yeah this seems too good to be true.

Can you transfer in this much via WU without drawing a ton of AFIP problems into your life? Even if you give it to family or something to buy here thats a killer offer I think.
 

Johnny

Registered
No, Argentina will not default. It's not worth it. The current debt is ~17% of GDP. When ARG defaulted in 2001 it was like 150%. A default would be ridiculously stupid. Bond holders will also lose if Argentina defaults and the already fragile global markets will be afflicted so both sides will be pressured till the last minute to compromise -- and I think they will.

Now the blue rate is illogical. A blue at about 110-115 makes sense but 140 is pure speculation so enjoy it while it lasts. It's a very very very small market and it's rigged. It's not really "free" there's a market maker somewhere in the city porteño that can influence the price as they see fit. At some point they will dump a massive amount of $ to cash out and profit (bringing down the blue to more moderate levels). The Dollar Liqui and MEP are a more accurate measure of the dollar but even they have a certain level of distortion.
Agreed with all of that. Tons of froth in that blue rate valuation.
 

on the brink

Registered
For whatever it's worth: in Uruguay, it takes 207 pesos argentinos to buy a US dollar. According to a piece I read, that is the real value of the peso outside Argentina.

About car buying, it is really a great opportunity for those with dollars to get a car at an unbeatable price. Right now they are priced in official-rate dollars payable in pesos, which means half-price at blue dollar rates. Six years ago the same thing happened, and I bought a Toyota SUV at the USA dealer's invoice price.
 
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Ries

Registered
The real question is not the dollar to peso number, but the inflation to exchange rate ratio.
If every single price in Argentina followed the dollar rate exactly, then, yes, this would be a terrible thing.
But it doesnt.
Some things track pretty directly and quickly- say, the price of a new Iphone.
Other things lag by months, sometimes even years.

The amount the Blue rate affects the cost of living in Argentina is the real issue- and its complex, non-intuitive, and inexplicable how some things go up a proportionate amount, while other prices go up at varying relationships to the dollar, and at seemingly random times.
 
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