Dollar Value Predictions 2021/2022

FrankPintor

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I think there's a pathway to an exchange rate between 200 and 250 per USD, the "Dolar Soya" sort of points the way, now we have demands for a "Sheep Dollar", special rates for monotributistas providing services for overseas companies, etc. This all needs to converge, and the motivation for the government is that it needs to stop selling Dollars for 140-150 Pesos for imports, while selling them at 200+ "Super Minister" Massa doesn't seem stupid, maybe be has a roadmap for that.
 

Reply Guy

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Your post doesn't seem to be aging well.

"end of 2022" I didn't say September. I still believe we'll be around 300 or more by end of 2022. We'll see. Do you have a price target?

DXY is still around 108 and Mr. Powell is saying prepare for pain. Don't fight the fed.
 

jblaze5779

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Massa was somehow able to fool everyone in the US (again). He predicts 50% inflation for 23, I dont know where they got that possibility from.
 

Reply Guy

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The geniuses on the Macri economics team thought jacking interest rates to the 75% would work too
 

antipodean

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This morning's headline at 09:50 was "Con la nueva suba de tasas, el Gobierno busca mantener la brecha cambiaria debajo de 100%"
It's 12:52 and the CCL is already back at 303 and MEP catching up fast - putting the brecha back over 100%. Another short lived and fast celebrated "victory" down the drain.
Essentially all Masa selling is smoke and doing exactly what he criticised the former government of doing. With each new "dollar" they create, the state needs to spend/ print more money to prop it up. So while it is cutting costs on healthcare, education etc, it is still well and truly on a spending spree elsewhere. When you have multiple exchange rates, the "real" economy will always gravitate towards the highest one dragging prices with it.
 

Traveler

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Still don't think the peso is going hit $300 during the next 3.5 months @Traveler ? 🤣
I hope it goes higher as I exist here on dollars. I do find it par for the course that the Chinese market I buy my wine at jumped prices about 25% last month after they raised them (at least on wine) about 20% a few months back; however, as the blue dollar declined from 330 or so to around 270 there's been no decrease in their prices.
 

Quilombo

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I hope it goes higher as I exist here on dollars. I do find it par for the course that the Chinese market I buy my wine at jumped prices about 25% last month after they raised them (at least on wine) about 20% a few months back; however, as the blue dollar declined from 330 or so to around 270 there's been no decrease in their prices.
This is the fun of Argentina, when the dollar goes up everyone loses, even people with dollars lol

The problem we have is that when we talk about the dollar we have to ask: which one? Month to date the official dollar has appreciated only 6.06%, which is less than inflation at 7%, and don't get me started on the CCL or Blue since that's completely out of whack and lurches in different directions depending on how the wind is blowing and whatever batshit idea the Ks come up with on a whim via DNU.

All that being said, it's better than the crawling crawling peg of early this year which was ~3.5% a month, but with inflation likely to hit 100%, they need to start doing 8.3% a month minimum to prevent sharp devaluations they keep saying they want to avoid, and to prevent the brecha from growing even further.

If we use this month as a baseline, we'll close out 2022 at ~$171.20 on December 15th, and if the Blue/CCL brecha of 93.01%/110.64% holds, we can expect a Blue ~$330.43 and CCL of ~$360.62.

All this being said, I personally expect the Blue and CCL brecha to grow (once again undermining the government's stated strategy) as today the government announced that those who receive subsidies for utilities will now be prohibited from accessing the MEP/CCL in addition to the "savings" dollar, and there is the expectation of a "Dólar Qatar" (making the dólar tarjeta basically the same as the CCL come October) which will put more pressure on the blue since using todays' CCL/Blue exchange rates it would be 25 pesos per dollar cheaper to buy blue dollars in cash and deposit them to pay for dollar consumptions made via credit cards online/abroad.

Long story short, Ks cut off nose to spite face, sky is blue, and water wet.
 
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