Dollar Value Predictions 2021/2022

[Dougie]

EF who?

 

[Wade K.]

Oh- I didnt realize I was talking to "the wealthy".
I was talking about the blue rate, and Argentina.
In Argentina, there are perhaps a 100 families with "a store of wealth".
The rest of the people actually do have to buy food, pay rent, and take the subte.

In the USA, a relatively wealthy country, the median net worth of a family (not an individual) is around $120k USD. That would include home equity.
So, like most americans, I dont stay up at night worrying about where to store my enormous trove of wealth, and weather gold or bitcoins is better.

Argentina, of course, is much worse off- generally figures show median net worth to be around 1/20th of the US averages.
So the idea that gold has any relevance to the average citizen of either country is kind of far from my realm of understanding.

But you guys must not only be genius economists, but also extremely wealthy, to be so concerned with storing your immense wealth in gold.
I have a nice gold stud in my left earlobe. That counts, doesnt it?

For 99% of the people on earth, gold is not "money" and "storing wealth" is a pipedream.

But this is the "BAExpats forum" so how to handle a financial crisis from the home country may be pertinent. Not to mention the Blue Rate exists in order for Argentineans to buy Dollars in order to preserve their wealth as the Peso steadily erodes might be pertinent. But you do you.

 

[TWB103]

I am far from wealthy. I have been lucky, and born white and middle class, but I bought both my place in rural washington and my apartment in Buenos Aires many years ago, when prices were much cheaper.

By what you describe you are wealthy by virtually all Argentines' and many 'First Worlders' standards. Why the false modesty?

I'd say you were far luckier to be born in the US and not Somalia, than being 'born white'.

 

[TWB103]

My wife's ex sold their property unexpectedly and she came home late with a tatty Vea bag full of pesos. Needless to say I didnt get much sleep that night fearing the peso could massively drop in value, that someone would get a tip off and invade our, at the time, not so secure home and if the money changers would exchange the scrappy peso notes for dollars. Fun memory.

 

[semigoodlookin]

A debate where both sides are correct but seeing it from different perspectives, but neither wants to back down. Bitcoin is the future, gold remains a good storage option for wealth, and of course the average family is not thinking about either, especially in Argentina.

 

[Alpinista]

I agree with some posters here that the USD as transaction currency / medium at least in the short and mid term (if not long term) is and will be the most common way of doing deals and exchanging goods.

However, in terms of value storage I would prefer other currencies (JPY, CHF, SGD). Looking over the last 10-20 years the USD has lost (if I am not completely mistaken) against most major currencies. I don't assume a demise of the USD and expect it to be remain the world's most dominant currency, but I expect it to keep losing against most major currencies (especially because of the deficit spending).

To put something in a bank safe with a horizon of at least 5-10 years I would probably prefer gold. Regarding Bitcoin I am highly skeptical. Who can say that the Bitcoin is worth 50'000 USD, 1m USD or 200 USD? It might be that cryptocurrencies are indeed the future, but they remain highly speculative and therefore not really an ideal medium of wealth storage.

One last thought: the Bitcoin network has a higher energy consumption than the state of Norway (source):



Given that there is a clear worldwide need to get greener and cleaner, this is complete madness.

 

[jeff1234]

If I'm not mistaken all of bitcoins value is based on the cost of the electricity and computing needed to create it. So it's a bet that no one will invent a more efficient computer or one that requires much less electricity.
Personally I'd never bet that a new technology won't happen.

 

[Dougie]

If I'm not mistaken all of bitcoins value is based on the cost of the electricity and computing needed to create it. So it's a bet that no one will invent a more efficient computer or one that requires much less electricity.
Personally I'd never bet that a new technology won't happen.

I'd recommend looking up - Proof of Work - which is how the Bitcoin network is secured. It's definitely not a bet that no one will invent a more efficient computer.

There are other methods of securing blockchain networks such as Proof of Stake, which don't require large amounts of energy, that the Ethereum network is transitioning too.

The large venture capital firms that brought you Google, Facebook, Twitter, Uber, and so on...are pouring billions of dollars into these networks. It is definitely the future of assets. Which cryptocurrency networks win out and how it's all eventually regulated is to yet to be seen.

Portfolio | Andreessen Horowitz

…

a16z.com

 

[Ries]

If only you knew what I look like.
Lets just say no one is going to mistake me for E.F. Hutton.

 

[Ries]

One interesting thing that is going on in the USA right now- Houses are selling at incredible speed, for incredible prices. Its almost as if US citizens are adopting the argentine attitude that the only safe place to hoard your wealth is in real estate.

This a pretty much national phenomenon, not restricted to the coasts, or the big cities. Even in extremely rural areas, prices are way up, and there is very little for sale.