Dollarization

Status
Not open for further replies.
Why can Columbia live with a 4000 peso Dollar and Paraguay can live with 7300 guarani Dollar but Argentina can not live with a 1000 peso Dollar?

Is Zimbabwe any better today because of Dollarization?
 
Last edited:
Why can Columbia live with a 4000 peso Dollar and Paraguay can live with 7300 guarani Dollar but Argentina can not live with a 1000 peso Dollar?

Is Zimbabwe any better today because of Dollarization?
*Colombia, and that's apple and oranges comparing Argentina to CO and PY.

Colombia and Paraguay do not have capital controls on the level Argentina does, and their currencies float, i.e. they are allowed to move up or down as determined by the market without government intervention, while Argentina even under Milei practices what is called a managed float regime, where the BCRA intervenes in the forex market to currently maintain a 2% monthly devaluation.

Notice how different the currencies have operated over the pas 5 years, and you'll see why you can't compare Argentina:
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot 2024-01-07 at 17.45.17.png
    Screenshot 2024-01-07 at 17.45.17.png
    146.2 KB · Views: 13
  • Screenshot 2024-01-07 at 17.45.37.png
    Screenshot 2024-01-07 at 17.45.37.png
    128.1 KB · Views: 13
  • Screenshot 2024-01-07 at 18.08.11.png
    Screenshot 2024-01-07 at 18.08.11.png
    118.1 KB · Views: 13
Why can Columbia live with a 4000 peso Dollar and Paraguay can live with 7300 guarani Dollar but Argentina can not live with a 1000 peso Dollar?

Is Zimbabwe any better today because of Dollarization?

You can't compare currencies like that. It's not just lower number = better.
 
*Colombia, and that's apple and oranges comparing Argentina to CO and PY.

Colombia and Paraguay do not have capital controls on the level Argentina does, and their currencies float, i.e. they are allowed to move up or down as determined by the market without government intervention, while Argentina even under Milei practices what is called a managed float regime, where the BCRA intervenes in the forex market to currently maintain a 2% monthly devaluation.

Notice how different the currencies have operated over the pas 5 years, and you'll see why you can't compare Argentina:
Got it. CO & PY are floating their currencies.

But then the question becomes why can't Argentina let the ARS float and live with that?

Why Dollarization? Has Zimbabwe got any better?
 
*Colombia, and that's apple and oranges comparing Argentina to CO and PY.

Colombia and Paraguay do not have capital controls on the level Argentina does, and their currencies float, i.e. they are allowed to move up or down as determined by the market without government intervention, while Argentina even under Milei practices what is called a managed float regime, where the BCRA intervenes in the forex market to currently maintain a 2% monthly devaluation.

Notice how different the currencies have operated over the pas 5 years, and you'll see why you can't compare Argentina:
I get the floating currency rational as a valid and sufficient argument.

There was no need for the extraneous 3 charts.🤣
 
But then the question becomes why can't Argentina let the ARS float and live with that?
Well, for starters you actually need to have dollars available for everyone that wants them for this to work, and you basically would have runaway inflation worse than we have now as companies and people would trade in all their pesos for dollars knowing the peso would be worth less tomorrow, next week, next month, etc.

When the Peso Ley 18.188 and Austral ceased being legal tender the largest notes in circulation were 1 Million and 500K respectively. Something similar would happen with a market determined exchange rate. You basically cause a market driven dollarization as the exchange rate would skyrocket, salaries plummet, and GDP goes in to free fall.

Milei is pro dollarization, but not at any cost, and while a free float is a way to basically dollarize the country instantly, it creates a socio-economic pressure cooker because those with dollars stop spending beyond say food/shelter, while those without dollars lineup at Dia to buy food that is repriced every hour like in the 80s and cut the streets because you can live on 3 facturas a day.
Why Dollarization? Has Zimbabwe got any better?
What dollarization does is provide stability; when countries dollarize, they can no longer issue their own currency, which in the case of Argentina would prevent us from printing pesos to cover budget deficits or have a domestic debt market that is easily manipulable via cash injections from the government. With a dollarized economy, the monetary supply is broadly determined by the Fed in the US, but domestically in Argentina it's more finite, i.e. you can only spend what you have, and since you can't print dollars, you have to obtain them via debt issuance in dollars, or via income, i.e. taxes in dollars.

Now, dollarization is only a magic bullet for inflation/macroeconomic woes for as long as a country is willing to take measures to address the underlying problems. Milei's argument is that dollarization + macroeconomic adjustments will do things to stabilize Argentina's economy and make growth and investment possible. Zimbabwe for example still suffers from macroeconomic problems and the country reintroduced the ZWL in 2019, so it's not fully dollarized. The Mileista argument would be that dollarizing under Massa would only fix so much, you have to change a country's habits more broadly for it to work overall.
 
Why in Argentina's case floating peso would rise to million.

While CO & PY floating currency rose only to 4000 & 7300.
 
Last edited:
Why in Argentina's case floating peso would rise to million.

While CO & PY floating currency rose only to 4000 & 7300.
I am going to take a wild wild guess.

Probably CO & PY got lucky and were able to float their currencies way back (20 years ago) when they had only inflation (no Hyperinflation).

Too late for Argentina. Argentina waited till they now have Hyperinflation. Floating the ARS right now is a no brainer guaranteed (elementary math) jump to the 1000000 peso Dollar.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top